back to indexWhere Should I Invest $50K Right Now?
Chapters
0:0 Intro
2:50 Does the concentration of market leaders matter?
11:27 Where to invest $50k
14:17 How Ben tracks his investments
17:25 Thrift Savings Plan
27:29 Is an MBA worth it?
00:00:13.980 |
where someone told us it was our 100th episode last week 00:00:19.920 |
- Oh, today is, oh, I thought it was last week. 00:00:27.880 |
Today's show is sponsored by our friends at Bird Dogs. 00:00:32.000 |
you said they've sponsored the most amount of shows. 00:00:34.200 |
I just got a new shipment from Bird Dogs last week. 00:00:36.400 |
I got my first pair of these stretch khaki pants. 00:00:43.700 |
Still have the side pocket, I'm wearing some today. 00:00:47.080 |
- I like the Phil Gates there, I gotta get the Phil Gates. 00:00:52.400 |
I feel like if, I don't golf, but if you did golf, 00:00:54.720 |
these are the kind of pants you could wear golfing. 00:00:58.040 |
It's very nice, breathable, stretchy, it's pretty good. 00:01:01.720 |
- You also still got my hat that I'll get one day? 00:01:06.400 |
Put the code in ATC, or go to birddogs.com/ATC. 00:01:13.720 |
It's coming your way, that'll be your Christmas present. 00:01:28.640 |
And we have a dock full of probably 100 questions 00:01:34.800 |
Most of them are probably because they're too long. 00:01:37.080 |
If you wanna get on the show, brevity is the key. 00:01:40.180 |
We appreciate all the details, but give us a TLDR. 00:01:47.280 |
because we called the show What's in Ben's Portfolio, 00:01:53.920 |
This week, we're gonna screen share his Schwab account. 00:01:57.720 |
I didn't know everyone wanted a fund by fund. 00:02:01.400 |
I mean, I'd say 60% index funds, 40% factor funds. 00:02:10.640 |
It's funds you would think. People wanna hear tickers. 00:02:18.800 |
I like, we have viewers who know me well enough 00:02:21.680 |
that the other day when the market was rallying, 00:02:25.000 |
all the stocks had been beaten down, were soaring. 00:02:27.680 |
Someone was like, "Your portfolio's doing really well today 00:02:47.800 |
I'm gonna show you why that's probably the case. 00:02:55.360 |
I keep hearing that the Magnificent Seven stocks 00:03:02.960 |
but should we be worried about this level of concentration? 00:03:10.360 |
So Magnificent Seven is Apple, Amazon, Facebook, 00:03:17.940 |
Those stocks are carrying the market this year. 00:03:21.560 |
especially when you consider how big these stocks really are. 00:03:23.760 |
The average market cap for these seven companies 00:03:27.360 |
The average return this year for those companies 00:03:32.120 |
And some of that is Nvidia being up like 240%, 00:03:35.440 |
but even the median gain for these seven stocks 00:03:38.880 |
The average market cap for the remaining stocks 00:03:50.960 |
The average return of the rest of those stocks, 00:03:53.120 |
which the average market cap is like 57 billion, 00:04:03.680 |
So those stocks really are carrying the water 00:04:11.320 |
what if these general stocks just roll over, right? 00:04:24.000 |
But the rest of the market can actually do better 00:04:36.200 |
The average return for these seven stocks last year, 00:04:42.480 |
- Yeah, average return for these seven stocks in 2022. 00:04:50.200 |
Okay, so yeah, they're up 100% on average this year. 00:04:58.080 |
if you're down 50 and up 100, you break even. 00:05:17.160 |
but last year, and the S&P was down 18% last year. 00:05:19.840 |
Again, these stocks on average were down almost 50%. 00:05:22.280 |
The S&P was down 18, so these stocks did crash. 00:05:26.880 |
- Nvidia, I think Nvidia and Tesla were down 60% 00:05:31.440 |
So the other parts of the market picked up a slack. 00:05:40.360 |
In certain market environments, other stocks do well. 00:05:42.520 |
So I think if you want to be invested in the stock market, 00:05:46.280 |
you have to be comfortable with concentrated gains 00:05:50.280 |
So my favorite study on this was Hendrik Bessenbinder 00:05:54.000 |
I've mentioned this before, throw up the graphic. 00:05:59.240 |
He has this really cool graphic that shows everything. 00:06:10.760 |
86 stocks accounted for half of all wealth creation 00:06:13.120 |
in the United States stock market going back to 1926. 00:06:16.360 |
All of that wealth creation came from 4% of the stocks. 00:06:23.120 |
And the other close to 40% barely beat T-bills. 00:06:27.340 |
So most stocks don't do all that well over the long run. 00:06:34.040 |
Of course, this is like a hundred years of data. 00:06:36.960 |
had fantastic returns over shorter timeframes. 00:06:40.980 |
But my biggest takeaway from his research is, 00:06:44.520 |
it would be wonderful if you could just pick these stocks, 00:06:47.800 |
Apple was close to going out of business in the 1990s 00:06:50.280 |
until Microsoft and Bill Gates gave them a lifeline 00:06:54.100 |
And now Apple's the biggest company in the US stock market. 00:06:57.640 |
but the biggest takeaway here is that diversification 00:07:00.360 |
is what matters because you want to give yourself 00:07:08.980 |
Actually, you have a greater chance of underperforming. 00:07:21.920 |
This is the distribution of returns over one month, 00:07:50.520 |
if they still print stocks in the newspapers, right? 00:07:53.560 |
You can't really throw a dart at a computer screen. 00:07:56.560 |
But pick any stock in any sector over 10 years, 00:08:10.840 |
You can see the median return versus the average. 00:08:17.000 |
And then it shows the percentage of winners and losers. 00:08:22.960 |
that pretty much pick up the slack for all the losers. 00:08:26.700 |
So the beautiful thing about the stock market 00:08:38.160 |
This year, in a one-year period, it's an outlier. 00:08:41.720 |
But over the long-term, this is the norm in the stock market. 00:08:44.960 |
- When I was getting into the stock market years ago, 00:08:49.760 |
reading, you know, I read Intelligent Investor 00:08:53.300 |
and all the books people typically recommend. 00:09:01.320 |
and hold onto them long enough, you know, they'll do well. 00:09:03.800 |
And yeah, like now I'm seeing that was not the right takeaway. 00:09:08.120 |
again, this is like hundreds of years of data. 00:09:11.040 |
- So it's not to say that in between small caps-- 00:09:11.880 |
- When Amazon proves this wrong, stuff like that, right? 00:09:20.840 |
It's just that some of those stocks that came up to the top 00:09:33.480 |
is running from the top 20% over the previous five years. 00:09:38.060 |
So some of these stocks in the Magnificent Seven 00:09:40.680 |
are going to underperform in the years ahead. 00:09:46.000 |
That's pretty much the way the stock market works. 00:09:50.200 |
In 2000, some of the biggest stocks in the market 00:09:56.960 |
All have fallen, some in magnificent fashion. 00:10:01.540 |
Other stocks came up and picked up the slack. 00:10:05.280 |
that still remains from 2000 as one of the biggest stocks. 00:10:09.840 |
when I was showing you my like 20 stocks in an IRA 00:10:12.400 |
that are all down significantly over like two years, 00:10:23.120 |
Like are too many bad companies able to list? 00:10:26.900 |
Or does that not have anything to do with it? 00:10:28.600 |
- No, I think it's always like this, unfortunately. 00:10:35.980 |
It's just that the history of the stock market 00:10:47.200 |
but diversifying is probably gonna be a better bet overall 00:10:52.280 |
because you wanna make sure you have the ability 00:10:54.120 |
to get those winners, 'cause it's hard to pick 'em. 00:11:08.560 |
John's out today, and so I forgot to set our windows here, 00:11:27.520 |
- All right, up next we have a question from Anthony. 00:11:30.880 |
and appreciate all the information you put out. 00:11:40.960 |
with that money in these unsure times in the market. 00:11:45.940 |
We had enough saved to cover the wedding costs. 00:12:26.120 |
especially if you haven't been in a house before. 00:12:34.800 |
Don't get me wrong, the boring stuff is important 00:12:42.600 |
I don't know, probably no kids in the house yet. 00:12:45.800 |
Set aside some money to have fun and go on a vacation. 00:12:52.380 |
So we traveled as much as we could after we got married, 00:12:56.100 |
was gonna be much harder to do going forward. 00:13:03.440 |
So I got my first bonus for my first job in year two. 00:13:10.880 |
But anytime I got money outside of my regular salary, 00:13:16.320 |
where a certain percentage would go to short-term savings, 00:13:18.640 |
a certain percentage would go to my travel fund, 00:13:20.280 |
a certain percentage would go to retirement accounts, 00:13:22.600 |
and then a certain percentage would go to just-- 00:13:25.400 |
- Frivolous, well, frivolous whatever, spending. 00:13:30.580 |
go out to a nice dinner, reward yourself a little bit. 00:13:33.380 |
I think that if you're just gonna save it all, 00:13:36.460 |
So I think it's just a good way to keep yourself honest, 00:13:43.620 |
And obviously, it might not happen very often, 00:13:44.940 |
but if you do get some sort of windfall for whatever reason, 00:13:57.500 |
anything to invest in, but I would worry more 00:14:11.300 |
We all know you more likely YOLO the 50K into 5K, but. 00:14:18.180 |
- All right, up next we have a question from Kurt. 00:14:21.380 |
So this is what you would do, really, with that money, right? 00:14:23.420 |
You'd put it into your spreadsheet to keep track of it? 00:14:27.960 |
your portfolio investments and other finances 00:14:30.940 |
Can you go into detail on how you have that set up? 00:14:33.620 |
- We've had a few people ask if I can just share 00:14:42.020 |
I'm a, let's be fair, I'm a simple guy, right? 00:14:46.060 |
It probably wouldn't be all that helpful to most people. 00:15:06.100 |
- When your cable one goes down over time, right? 00:15:12.600 |
I treat savings like it's a fixed bill, right? 00:15:19.260 |
Then all the variable expenses go on the credit cards. 00:15:30.660 |
like that's basically like my leftover pile, right? 00:15:33.020 |
So you take the fixed expenses away from that income. 00:15:41.340 |
Hopefully it basically zeroes out at the end of the month 00:15:52.700 |
My net worth tracker has probably been simpler. 00:16:17.220 |
I added a real estate column a couple of years ago 00:16:21.020 |
Some equity because housing prices have gone up. 00:16:23.840 |
Very simple, old school, doesn't take me very, 00:16:25.460 |
my finances take me 15 minutes a month probably. 00:16:33.440 |
so I don't have to spend a ton of time doing it. 00:16:39.900 |
so this would take me a while to set up probably. 00:16:49.860 |
where I just see how much is left in the bank account 00:16:54.060 |
- That's probably what most people do though. 00:17:02.900 |
there's an old Jerry Seinfeld bit where he says, 00:17:16.300 |
so if you save first, spend whatever's left, invert. 00:17:25.380 |
- All right, up next we have a question from Tony. 00:17:28.540 |
I'm retired from 20 years on active duty with the Air Force 00:17:34.940 |
This is just in time, we just had Veterans Day 00:17:39.940 |
- I have a pension, social security, VA benefits, 00:17:43.260 |
and rental income of about $130,000 annually. 00:18:02.360 |
The first part of this is, in terms of my bond allocation, 00:18:07.940 |
in the federal government's thrift savings plan 00:18:14.140 |
Do the benefits of the G fund mean I should just stick 00:18:19.120 |
Part two, I'm buying a new Sprinter camper van 00:18:22.840 |
It's got all the bells and whistles, all-wheel drive, 00:18:27.660 |
I've already paid for the chassis and down payment 00:18:41.580 |
- Hey, as a finance guy-- - This is a good one. 00:18:51.100 |
Okay, so this, to me, this is an investment question, 00:19:10.060 |
but I'm not gonna do that 'cause I'm not cliche. 00:19:12.800 |
But first of all, where I wanted to start here 00:19:15.860 |
you know, he gets the pension income and rental income, 00:19:17.900 |
but his savings are all in tax-deferred accounts. 00:19:20.300 |
If a client comes to you with all tax-deferred money, 00:19:25.580 |
Does it make it harder 'cause it's less flexible? 00:19:27.300 |
I'm just curious that there's no taxable money whatsoever. 00:19:30.780 |
Is that a good thing, a bad thing, does it not matter? 00:19:45.120 |
I like it because they're more tax-efficient. 00:19:54.680 |
maximize trading, and there's no tax consequences 00:19:59.280 |
where we'd be generating short-term capital gains or losses. 00:20:01.000 |
- That's true, you could change the portfolio allocation 00:20:03.160 |
if you wanted to without triggering any taxable gains. 00:20:16.760 |
And I have some experience with this because-- 00:20:25.640 |
'cause my brother works for the federal government, 00:20:31.600 |
for a number of years that the Thrift Savings Plan 00:20:33.520 |
or the TSP, which is all federal government retirement plan, 00:20:47.720 |
because it, Duncan, throw up the fund comparison. 00:21:00.280 |
but the way it works is it acts like a short-term treasury 00:21:05.080 |
but the yield it pays is more like long-term treasury. 00:21:07.720 |
So it pays a higher yield, but your principal is protected. 00:21:11.320 |
this thing's outperformed by 7% per year over the aggregate 00:21:24.240 |
you'd think it's like some sort of Ponzi scheme, 00:21:27.400 |
who's essentially like guaranteeing that it's very, 00:21:30.400 |
it's like it takes an average of all the treasury yields. 00:21:33.280 |
It's very, so what I'm trying to say is like, 00:21:38.320 |
and you could diversify by having the other one, 00:21:43.440 |
you don't have to worry about like rates rising 00:21:48.400 |
it's probably one of the best performing bond funds 00:21:51.480 |
- US government, Ponzi scheme, what's the difference, Ben? 00:21:59.760 |
because the value of your account will never fluctuate. 00:22:07.400 |
- Yeah, if you look at like the description of this, 00:22:11.520 |
- Well, the downside is that, there's not much downside, 00:22:14.240 |
but if I had to play devil's advocate, Benjamin, 00:22:16.880 |
it would be that when the yield curve is inverted, 00:22:32.600 |
However, our boy, Tony, only has qualified accounts, 00:22:41.080 |
So overall, Tony, if you're comfortable with it, 00:22:46.880 |
So I'm guessing the Sprinter one is like a shorter camper, 00:22:54.560 |
It's kind of like what some shipping companies use. 00:22:57.000 |
- So Alex, I'm sure you've talked to many clients about this 00:22:59.160 |
whether it's buying a new car or buying a second home 00:23:05.040 |
let my investments ride and borrow some money, 00:23:08.880 |
or I can take it from my portfolio and pay in cash. 00:23:11.720 |
Like the pro, there's obviously pros and cons of each, 00:23:13.960 |
but how do you help people make this type of decision? 00:23:16.200 |
'Cause I'm guessing where rates are right now being so high, 00:23:19.880 |
it's kind of a push in terms of a hurdle rate. 00:23:22.580 |
- Yeah, this is a pretty common overall decision tree 00:23:25.280 |
and point when I'm working with my clients for sure. 00:23:28.040 |
I say that it always comes down to two things, 00:23:32.880 |
If the interest rate that you're getting quoted 00:23:35.840 |
in terms of financing, the camper, the house, 00:23:38.040 |
whatever it is, is higher than your expected rate of return 00:23:40.880 |
on your investments, then it becomes a no-brainer, right? 00:23:48.440 |
and you're gonna invest the difference at a 6% rate, 00:23:56.960 |
like a 6% interest rate quoted if he finances the camper 00:24:00.320 |
and he has all this income coming in that he told us about. 00:24:06.120 |
that your overall portfolio should get like a seven 00:24:10.000 |
So that's pretty positive rate of return arbitrage. 00:24:26.080 |
And I was taking a look at this for certain clients. 00:24:40.440 |
the S&P was flat and every single asset class was down, 00:24:55.480 |
Over the past 13 trading days, just this month of November, 00:24:59.400 |
every single asset class that we invest for clients 00:25:19.960 |
- Yeah, what you're trying to say is returns are lumpy, 00:25:22.480 |
but if you're going through a period like that 00:25:25.480 |
oh shoot, I could have just taken this money out 00:25:27.280 |
before this crappy period of returns happened 00:25:33.360 |
is will you feel that or will you act on that if you, 00:25:36.920 |
'cause you don't know what the right decision is gonna be 00:25:39.760 |
so you have to kind of be happy with it one way or another 00:25:43.800 |
- Or even worse, you make this decision to finance, 00:25:49.760 |
over the next like 30 years, 20 years, 10 years, 00:25:52.840 |
Then you go through a period like the past two and a half 00:26:00.360 |
and you just completely wrecked your entire portfolio. 00:26:04.520 |
that can completely destroy, not destroy your finances, 00:26:23.440 |
- Be able to go wherever you want, anytime, sounds fun. 00:26:28.200 |
about taking distributions from his Roth IRA, 00:26:32.200 |
Because that Roth money is that sweet, sweet, sweet 00:26:41.400 |
you accumulated half a mil inside of that Roth IRA 00:26:54.080 |
if the interest rate is like 6% to 7%, it's close. 00:27:00.560 |
then I would just pay it off and use that Roth money. 00:27:04.720 |
And you get your living situation taken care of. 00:27:14.700 |
how come he doesn't have any non-qualified assets 00:27:18.740 |
- I think it's great that he's got it all tax-deferred. 00:27:21.900 |
- But he's saying he's living below his means, 00:27:23.320 |
so if he's bringing in 130K, he's spending 80K, 00:27:32.020 |
- Okay, last but not least, we have a question from Daniel. 00:27:35.880 |
Ben, do you feel like getting an MBA helped your career? 00:27:39.380 |
Did you pay for it yourself or did an employer help? 00:27:43.980 |
from a public university, but I've been hearing 00:27:48.180 |
I was hoping to get your perspective, thanks. 00:27:53.580 |
- I gotta be honest, you need to talk this up more. 00:27:55.680 |
I actually didn't even remember you had an MBA. 00:27:59.060 |
- This should be on your signature and stuff. 00:28:06.020 |
My employer had a reimbursement plan up to a certain level, 00:28:11.200 |
And I think they probably covered 90% of the cost. 00:28:15.180 |
where I knew I wanted to do something different. 00:28:16.740 |
And actually, I started my blog, A Wealth of Common Sense, 00:28:19.500 |
while in my MBA program in one of the classes. 00:28:26.780 |
But I don't know, I didn't learn much in my master's program 00:28:29.340 |
that I couldn't have learned by reading books. 00:28:33.900 |
into a really good school, if you're stuck in your career 00:28:38.300 |
It's also really helpful to build your network 00:28:40.180 |
if you don't have a network in terms of helping 00:28:44.680 |
So those are the reasons I think you should do it. 00:28:46.660 |
I don't think you should do it if you think it's gonna mean 00:28:48.520 |
like a springboard to your career automatically. 00:28:57.800 |
It might add value to your overall situation, 00:29:00.000 |
but most likely in ways that you didn't see it, right? 00:29:03.560 |
Like why are you getting the MBA in the first place? 00:29:07.420 |
that you otherwise couldn't get without the MBA. 00:29:10.580 |
In 99% of circumstances, real life experience 00:29:15.120 |
- Yes, I think if you had to, like I know people stop 00:29:26.280 |
just because so much of the point of a degree like that 00:29:28.880 |
is the connections you're making and people you're meeting 00:29:31.300 |
and that could end up being great relationships 00:29:34.960 |
I don't know that you get that as much with an online degree. 00:29:38.300 |
- And also, would you go to the brightest and best, 00:29:49.220 |
and you didn't make any money over those two years. 00:29:52.220 |
Most likely, the reason that you, whoever asked this question 00:29:59.660 |
is not because of whether you have an MBA or not. 00:30:04.540 |
No one's gonna interview you, really like you, 00:30:10.640 |
If you think the MBA will get you that interview, 00:30:23.120 |
- I would wanna know what the career prospects are 00:30:25.400 |
and if there's jobs you're looking for that require an MBA. 00:30:28.000 |
Like if there's a job you really want that requires it, 00:30:33.360 |
I don't think it, I wouldn't put so much weight on it. 00:30:37.480 |
- I'm banking on one day getting an honorary MBA, you know? 00:30:50.160 |
In fact, I'd imagine we interviewed much more qualified 00:30:56.180 |
people just want to work with people that they like. 00:31:03.540 |
- Alex basically worked his way up from the mailroom. 00:31:10.960 |
Wow, oh my God, that's not even why I made this my name. 00:31:16.440 |
- Yeah, that's a reference to our Fantasy Football League. 00:31:20.920 |
- First place at a 16, nine-game winning streak, 00:31:24.260 |
- People want to hear less about your fantasy football team 00:31:26.840 |
than they want to hear about Duncan's stock picks. 00:31:30.040 |
- There's a lot of appetite for my stock picks. 00:31:31.980 |
- Congratulations on the 100th episode, guys. 00:31:35.860 |
You're giving the YouTube base the knowledge that they need. 00:31:38.780 |
And thank you for having me on this very special episode.