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#AIS: Divvy Homes CEO Adena Hefets breaks down the state of the US housing market


Chapters

0:0 Adena Hefets breaks down the state of the US housing market in 2022
16:56 Bestie Q&A with Adena: differences between 2008 and 2022, housing market reaction time, chances of a collapse, and more
30:8 Adena does a Bestie Intro for herself!

Transcript

Awesome. Hi everyone. My name is Adina. I'm the CEO of Divi Homes. It's a pleasure to meet y'all. Thank you for being here. All right. So while they're pulling that up, I will just kick it off and get started because we're about three hours behind at this point. My passions are at the crossroads of finance, housing, and inequality and trying to solve all of these.

I'll get into what my company does at the very end of the presentation. That's not what I really want to focus on, but I want to start off with a little story that I think explains why this is so important to me. When it was about the 1980s, my mom decided to go on a little road trip with her friends and she was in Israel and she was backpacking and she was hitchhiking and a man picked her up.

She got into that car, fell in love and got pregnant. That man is my dad. My mom and dad quickly got married, immigrated back to the US and found themselves very young, 21 and 24, pregnant and trying to figure out what they were going to do with their life.

They couldn't get a mortgage to buy a house and settle down and be able to raise a family, but they were fortunate enough to find a woman who gave them seller financing, who was a very successful woman, and who was a very successful woman. So, she was able to get a mortgage to pay for the house.

She was able to pay for the house, so she let my parents pay in installments. In that house, they had three additional kids. I'm the third of four. Eventually, we were able to get a mortgage, take cash out of that house, and use the cash that they took out to pay for all four kids to go to college.

I tell you this because to me, this is the heart of the American dream, which is being able to provide a better life for your children than what you actually have. So, so much of what we're going to be talking about here is why that American dream has disappeared for so many Americans, and what we at Divi are doing to try to address that.

So, let's dive in. I have these bright blue slides. The goal is to just give you the takeaway so you don't have to figure it out. I try to stick to one chart per slide to keep it super simple, and I'll explain it, but this is the takeaway that you should get from the next couple of data points I'm going to give you, which is wealth inequality is rising across America.

I think you all know this chart, which is that 99% of wealth is owned by the top 50%, and the bottom 50% only own 1% of wealth here in the United States. So, this chart shows distribution of wealth by what your household income is. So, the top 10% of owners, sorry, the top 10% own 76% of wealth.

The next 40% own 23% of wealth. You sum that up, 99% of wealth is owned by the top 50%. What's even more interesting is that the rich are getting the wealth. The rich are getting the wealth. The rich are getting the wealth. are getting richer while the poor kind of stay at the same level of income and so what this chart actually shows is income percentiles so on the x-axis the zero is if you're at the very bottom end of the income spectrum 100% you're at the top end and then the blue line is how much income or family household wealth you had in 1963 almost 50 years ago and the yellow line shows how much wealth you have today so if you were in the top 1% your household wealth was on average two million dollars 50 years ago today it's about ten million dollars or a 5x growth and if you were in the bottom 50th percentile you haven't seen your household income change almost at all and so you might be asking okay why is this the case is it that wealthy people are making more in salary I would say while there are some salary differentials the main driver is asset appreciation access to assets and when I say assets I'm gonna use that pretty liberally it can mean stocks it can mean housing it can mean small businesses direct investments but all of that I'm a group together as investments in assets and so you can see this is a really simple chart where I took what were the 20-year returns by income as well as asset and you can see that household income has not appreciated much in the last 20 years whereas the S&P 500 as well as if you owned equity in your home you'd see an increase in your value of over a hundred percent you want to see something even crazier you get leverage on your home you get leverage on your home you get leverage on your home equity which is something that most of you some of you might get get leverage against your equity that you mess in the stock market but most of you aren't and you can actually lever up your home equity right and so you can take out debt that's cheap because it's backed and guaranteed by the government 80% leverage at what has been almost 3% cost of capital no one else can get that sort of cost of capital at that sort of leverage and you're forced to amortize so you build up savings in the property and a house has dual utility you cannot live in the S&P 500 you can live in a home so if we click on and so the takeaway has to be those who own assets are more likely to have a higher net worth and so this is a chart that I sold from the New York Times so credit goes to them but if you look on the left-hand side the blue bars all of the bars kind of sum up to 100% going across so the blue bars is the percent of family so bottom 50 percentile of income earners 50% 50 to 80% percentile 30% so on and what this is saying is that the bottom 50% of families and households own 1% of overall equities in the market and when you look at directly held stocks so stocks in the stock market they own 0% right and if you look at the top 1% of income earners they own 38% of overall equities which includes like retirement accounts and everything remember said that big asset class and they own 51% of the total equity in the market so that's a lot of money so if you look at the bottom 50% of income earners they own 31% of all directly held stocks so if you ask why are the rich getting richer it is because they own assets assets compound over time there's also a ton of tax benefits around owning assets long-term capital gains which I'm sure you all know another way to look at this which I think is really interesting is your net worth by renter versus homeowner homeowners on the other hand if you look at the bottom 50% of the total equity in the market you're going to see that the homeowner is actually the most likely to own the most of the total equity in the market and that's because they own the most of the total equity in the market so that's why they're the most likely to own the most of the total equity in the market and that's because they own the most of the total equity in the market so that's why they're the most likely to own the most of the total equity in the market so that's why they're the most likely to own the most of the total equity in the market so that's why they're the most likely to own the most of the total equity in the market so that's why they're because the debt amortizes, you're forced to save over time.

It's highly liquid; it's hard to take your money out of it. It is what makes a great investment. And so when you look at why this chart is so high, it's not because homeowners are saving a tremendous amount more. They're saving, they're putting money into the equity of the home.

They're being forced to in their payments. So, despite the benefits of homeownership, it is starting to become fundamentally inaccessible. So this is a chart, really simple, of average home prices. There's a bunch of different sources you can measure home prices, but you can see that at the bottom of the recession, which was actually 2012 for home prices, the average home price in America was $163,000, and that today it's closer to $338,000.

That's a 200 percent increase in 10 years. At the same time, real median income has only increased from about $57,000 to $67,000. So what has caused prices for homes to increase so dramatically? I'm pretty sure that none of this is new news. You all have been seeing how much home prices have risen.

For those of you who have bought while interest rates were still 3%, good on you because that is probably the lowest they're going to be in a really, really long time. But here's the quick history, which is from 2000 to 2008, we were building on average 1.5 billion homes, sorry, million homes a year, not billion, gosh.

1.5 million homes a year, and that equated to roughly four to five months of inventory. Months of inventory mean that if there were no more homes that were put on the market, how long would it take to sell all those homes? Four to five months. And that's generally considered a balanced real estate market.

Then what happened? The global financial crisis. There was a mass number of foreclosures. The market was completely flooded, and all of a sudden you could buy an existing home that was going into foreclosure for $163,000. And so builders who had to pay for labor, for lumber, to actually build a house, couldn't build a house for that cheap.

The cheapest that a home builder can build a home is roughly $200,000, all in costs. And so if you can sit there and you're like, I can only build a house for $200,000, which means I have to sell it for more than $200,000, well, I can't compete with existing foreclosure inventory.

So home builders stopped building. They went from building, 1.5 million a year down to about 750,000 homes a year after that. And it stayed like that until about 2015. And at that point, a lot of the inventory that came from foreclosures were absorbed and they started actually rebuilding again, but they didn't rebuild at the same rate that they had prior.

We're rebuilding right now. We're building probably new inventories, one point, I'd say 1.2 million annually. And so then this massive thing happened, which is COVID. And all of a sudden, everyone went from living in their studio apartment to saying, I need a backyard, I need an extra room for childcare, and I need an office.

And there was this mass spike in demand after years of not building enough inventory. And so what happens when demand starts to spike and there's not a lot of supply? Well, home prices took off, which you can kind of see right over here is that little spiky part at the very end.

And what's amazing is that it's actually just gotten incredibly harder, not just because home prices are getting more and more high, not just because home prices are getting more expensive, but because of the impact that that has in terms of how much you actually need to save to buy a home.

So the left-hand chart shows, the yellow bar is your average down payment, and you can see that that's grown roughly 2x. At the same time, median income in the last 20 years hasn't gone up. So on an absolute dollar basis, you now need to save 2x the amount that you would have had to save back in 2000.

So one, it's down payment is an issue. The second issue is that post-global, financial crisis, rightly so, the government tightened underwriting requirements. They said, you know what? Turns out when you cause a global worldwide recession, we should maybe change how we're doing things. And so they pulled back and said, we're going to make you have a higher FICO in order to be able to purchase a home, which is probably the right answer, but also pretty painful because people don't wake up one day and they're like, I no longer need a home, right?

And so if you take a look at this, the average FICO for home buyers is well above what the average FICO is for the general population, and the average FICO for home buyers is well above what the average FICO is for the general population, and anyone who's under 45 years is even lower because FICO cures over time.

And so what does this all come together and say is that unless you have the ability to save 2x the amount, unless you are above average in terms of FICO when you're starting off your life in a starter home, you're going to struggle to actually be able to buy a home.

Now this chart seems a little confusing, but I think it's really important to look at and understand, so I'll walk you through it. So what this chart shows is mortgage rates. 3%, 6%, 9%. We were at 3%, call it a year ago, we're at I think 5.5% right now is roughly where the 30-year fixed is.

And then 9%, who knows, maybe, hopefully not in the future. And that says what is your mortgage tax and insurance payments, what you have to include for a $400,000 home, which is roughly average home price. And I know a little different in Miami, but this is kind of across the U.S.

And then I said how much income do you need in order to get that mortgage? And you can see that your income that you need goes from about $94,000 of household income up to about $160,000 of household income. And then I said how many households could qualify for that?

Because there's data on how much income households make across the U.S. There are 126 million households in the U.S. And you can see that historically almost 40% -- sorry, 30% of households actually could afford a mortgage where we were before, and that number today has gone down to now 22% and will go down to about less than 15% of people who can actually get a mortgage on a home.

This is insane. So over here I kind of -- I like to just overly simplify things, so I kind of put it here, which is a $10,000 increase in home prices means 1 million fewer families can own a home, or a 1% increase in mortgage rates means 5 million families can actually own a home.

So we're in a little bit of a tough situation here. So when I started Divi, the goal was to help solve wealth inequality by giving Americans access to assets. This is the sole goal, the purpose, what I really believe in, which is that access to assets and compounding wealth in something that you cannot easily pull your money out of and you just leave it there is the way that we can help people generate wealth for their families, for their children, for their next generation.

So the way Divi works is very similar to a mortgage, except it's not a mortgage. You come to our website. You apply. We give you a budget. So we might say, hey, you're approved for a $500,000 home in Miami. Go out shopping. You shop with your realtor the same way you would with a mortgage, and when you're ready to buy a home, you just let us know what home you choose.

We say, great. We put out an all-cash, quick-close offer for you, so you can compete with every other investor offer that's out there. We'll take care of it for you, because we know how to bid on these homes. We then take care of the inspections. We cover all closing costs, all fees, everything.

We head to closing, and you commit either 1% to 2% down, which is about a tenth of a usual down payment. Down payments are 10% to 20%. We say 1% to 2%, and that's your initial equity in the home. You own that. That is yours. And then you move in.

You make one monthly payment, part rent, part equity, the same way a mortgage is principal and interest, and the equity piece builds up your percent ownership. We let you build up to 10% over the course of three years. At any point in time, you can get a mortgage or refinance and take us out, or you can cash out your equity and walk away hopefully with tens of thousands of dollars saved up.

So that is how we work. We operate in 16 metros. Our biggest ones are Georgia, Texas, and Florida. Florida is a big one, up in Tampa. The average income of our customers is about a $50,000 to $150,000 household income. 50% of our customers are people of color, and 80% of our transactions are female-led.

And so I think the most important thing is are we successful in our mission and what we're trying to do? So 51% of DIVI customers who have come to the end of their three-year lease have been able to buy back their home. Probably another 20% on top of it aren't yet ready for mortgage, and so we just let them build more equity over time.

And about 30% of people turn over, which is completely fine. Sometimes you have an extra kid or two, and you need a bigger home, and that's okay. We actually love that people can cash out their money and continue moving on. Over here we have what I think is one of the more powerful things, which is the average renter savings versus the average savings that a DIVI customer has in their home.

We're almost 25 times the savings that the average renter has, and this is because they are building up equity in their property over time. Over here, just to show, we're growing quickly, and we're doing it profitably. Actually, I think this is super important is you can sit here and say that you are building a mission-oriented company, you have to show scale.

You have to show growth, and you have to show that people there is adoption, and you're actually having an impact. And so this year alone we'll deploy over a billion dollars of capital. We measure a margin as the rent that we collect, less home costs, less interest, so it's like a true profit all-in margin, where we're almost probably going to be at about 25% all-in profit margin.

And now I think we have -- yeah, thank you. I think that there is a video, but I don't know if they're showing it. So we can maybe go to Q and A if we're running close on time. Let's go, yeah. Okay, cool. Thank you. I know that Freeburg's going to talk to you about consumer credit, but let me just tee up something before.

There's a tweet, I just want to read it to you, and maybe we can use this as a jumping off point. Blackstone calls homes almost as unaffordable as the 2007 peak. They just said that today. Yeah. His name is Joe Zittle, who's I guess a senior partner there. But he believes a crash is unlikely due to a major difference, which is that most owners aren't using their homes like an ATM, like they did back then.

Yeah. Can you just explain sort of the broader state of housing actually and why some people feel like we're actually -- Okay. Right at the brink of a crisis again, and some people don't? Okay, yeah, interesting. So the global financial crisis is very different than this because it was obviously a housing-led crisis where we had people overextend and they didn't have enough equity that was built up in their house to cushion a decline in home prices.

I'd say that this is a very different situation today, and I'd say that because one, we don't have a lot of supply. And so fundamentally when you're thinking about pricing, supply and demand dynamics, number one, we don't have a lot of supply. Now what you can probably argue is there is an equilibrium point, meaning, you know, we're going to have to increase the demand.

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