Dustin the Dad asked, "The all-in pod has a contrarian streak. Do you find a similar mindset useful when investing in early-stage ventures?" I think it's necessary to have outsized returns in venture be based on making investments that other folks are not making. If the market appears to be de-risked, it's likely because there are multiple players or participants that are all chasing the same thing, which means that the market will likely get competed away over time.
If you're investing where everyone else is investing, typically prices inflate, costs inflate, and your multiples reduce. The best investments are the singular ones, the ones that don't look like anything else. Those are very hard investments to make because other people aren't making them, so you don't get social validation that indicates that this is a good investment.
A lot of investors look for that social validation because they consider themselves participants in a marketplace and that that marketplace ultimately needs to agree with them for them to get paid.