I mean, Jason and Sachs look like fucking two accountants who've just been fired from Lehman Brothers in 2008. Absolutely. We're carrying our boxes out to the street and getting a taxi. Sachs does look appropriate for his setting. How long are you in D.C. for, Sachs? You in and out one day?

What are you doing? Yeah, I'm flying back tonight for the fundraiser tomorrow morning. Who's the fundraiser with? You want to tell everybody? Big boy? Yeah, it's an April Fool's joke. I'm hosting a fundraiser for a Democrat. Blue State. He's trolling everybody with his Blue State. Put your red tie on.

Put your red tie. You have a red tie with you, Sachs? I wore a blue tie today. Really? Oh, you're trolling? Oh, the full troll is on. Wow. What a little troll artist. All right. Let's get started. Let your winners ride. Rain Man, David Sachs. And it's said, we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.

Love you, man. Nice. Queen of Kinwa. All right, everybody. Welcome to another episode. Of the All In Podcast with us back from his Tahoe vacation. You were certainly missed even though the episode was record setting. The Queen of Kinwa himself. He'll reboot your physique with his munique. Puts the mana in the kana.

And he's your pal from NorCal, the Sultan of Science, David Friedberg. How are you doing, brother? Oh, shit. You have a whole sequence of these things? This is great. You actually do work for this podcast now? If you can keep this going every week, it'll be amazing. I mean.

I just felt like getting a plug in. I'm from Munich and Kana. That was my, if I could get to a portfolio. Okay, go. Go. Hit Sachs and me. Let's go. All right. Well, you know that he's back with us again. The czar of ARR. The savant of sass.

He puts the ass in Asperger's. He's the sucker. He's the sucker for Tucker. The Rain Man himself. David Sachs. That's so good. All right. Next up, the dictator agitator and our frequent collaborator. He's back to back with the SPACs. A trend. He's back in center with his sweaters. The future he can foresee.

Chamath Palihapitiya. We got you, everybody. It's not as good as David's, I got to say. Well, there's a lot to go with Asperger's, Tucker. I mean, the material for Sachs, I could have done 20 minutes. 20 minutes. I could have done 20 minutes on Sachs. Sachs, you are, of course, in D.C.

with some Star Chamber thing. You, Bannon, Teal. What Star Chamber bullshit are you doing in? No, I spoke. I spoke at a foreign policy conference today called. What's the name of it? It's called Up From Chaos and sponsored by a group called the American Moment and the American Conservative.

What did you speak about? Well, it's called Up From Chaos because our foreign policy has been chaos for the last 30 years. The United States has been in seven wars. How many trillions have we spent on nation building? We've lost all of those wars. Name one war we've won.

Look at all the lives that have been lost. Thousands and thousands of our soldiers. And then, you know, millions of innocent people. All over the world. I've said it before. This is what happens when the United States goes around the world stampeding like a raging elephant. We need a more restrained foreign policy.

So that's what I've been articulating. I don't know what what about that makes it either conservative or liberal. But, um, you know, what we need is is more restrained. First of all, it's too much interventionism. It's too logical, right? You know, it's it's it's pretty much everyone in this town.

I mean, there's no lobby for decreasing our involvement, right? Because I mean, the military industrial complex has gotten so big and so powerful. I mean, Trump did not want to start wars. It was a key piece of his platform. Uh, and it did seem up until, uh, and we'll get into this, obviously, uh, up until the gaff, uh, from Biden 12 hours after I said you weren't giving him the benefit of the doubt.

It threw me right into the bus. Biden just declared a new world order. I mean, he is regime change with Putin. Yeah. And he said regime change. I mean, he's bought into this liberal intervention. Um, Obama was much better. I mean, Obama had all the right instincts. He deescalated things in Ukraine.

We could have had the situation back in 2014. Obama pulled the plug and he deescalated in Syria over the over the objections of his staff. I mean, the problem is if you. The Obama basically got played by the staff and the establishment because Obama was there for eight years and he knew that, you know, it was all about doing the right thing.

And also about the legacy and the joy of it. judgment that would look back on his decisions whereas everybody else is like well i'm here for this four year grift and i'll be back for another four years later so you know the more chaos the better for a lot of those people he couldn't get us out of afghanistan why couldn't he get us out of afghanistan sack because he wanted to right he got played by the general so ben rhodes wrote a book ben rhodes was sort of one of obama's um right hand guys and he coined a term that stuck for called the blob which is the term for this sort of washington foreign policy establishment all the people in the state department and the think tanks and the sort of the the journalists who love being the drums of war i mean that whole establishment that just is addicted to war and um you know if you read that atlantic magazine interview called the obama doctrine where obama's interviewed he lays it out he says look there is a foreign policy playbook that presidents are expected to follow in response to any provocation any incident you're supposed to react in a highly militarized way and if you don't you get attacked and the generals he wanted to get out of afghanistan but the generals started leaking against him that would be a fiasco and then unfortunately obama didn't stick to his guns he didn't want to take those political hits it was unfortunate he really should have well we'll get into ukraine at the end of the uh show but let's talk a little bit about markets up top here the u.s yield curve uh inversion is upon us maybe you could give us a cp a little primer on what this means the inverted yield yield curve and why people are talking about it this week well i think people yeah we're talking about it the reason they were is that they believe that it predicts a recession and specifically what they look at is the interest rate on a two-year bond and an interest rate on a 10-year bond and you subtract one from the other and when it increases you're going to have a recession and when it inverts what effectively what it means is that you know typically in a healthy economy you want rising interest rates over a long period of time and the reason you would want that is that you are guessing that the economy will be healthy there'll be a nominal amount of inflation so things will tend to increase in price and as a result of that you need to get paid more for the future than today right so if you want me to take 10-year risk you need to pay me a little bit more than if you want me to take two-year risk and so things should go up into the right but when all that stuff 10 years out all of a sudden is trading for a lower yield than today what people think will happen is that you know governments will cut interest rates massively they tend to do that in order to stimulate the economy right to get money back into the system and they tend to do that because of a recession and so people look at the the difference between the two-year bond and the 10-year bond and they try to guess what's going to happen here's the problem with all of this it turns out that it's not as correlated as one thinks the and nick i posted this link so you you can just put it up there but a bunch of economists at the fed actually went and you know you have access to this data they back tested this and what they found was that there was actually a more predictive signal of recessions which is the difference between the three-month t-bill and the 18-month t-bill and if you're a if you look at the threes 18 spread they call that the forward spread at the fed that's actually not showing a recession at all in fact that shows a very healthy ascent largely taking into account the fact that the fed has told us that they're going to rip in a bunch of rate increases over the next year to 18 months so what are we to do with all of this well when there's been a recession it has typically been true that both the twos tens and the forward spread have collapsed to zero or gone negative that's this inversion it has never really been the case that twos tens inverts while the forward spread stays up and you have a recession in the past we've mentioned that when oil has these kinds of price spikes it typically forecasts a recession so if you put all of this data together it's a really murky picture so what are you supposed to do it's not totally clear to me but i think that the general way that i think the market is reacting to this is probably inappropriate and i'll tell you why and the setup by the way because of this inappropriateness is actually quite interesting so why is the reaction inappropriate look if you think about where we were in november and where we are today almost april 1st right so it's been four months five months we've had massive uh exposition of inflation we've had massive disruptions in the supply chain we've had a lot of disruptions to the supply chain we've had the beginning of a war whose end is somewhat indeterminate today that's causing a bunch of spikes in a bunch of really critical commodities the entire world needs we've had a federal reserve that went from hiking 50 or 75 basis points to hiking 200 to 250 basis points by the estimated average and so all of these things have happened yet the market is basically at an all-time high plus or minus five percent so we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions in the supply chain and we've had a lot of disruptions of the good companies.

So what are we doing right now, I think we are going to see this diversion of companies. And we're about to go through earnings season, right? We're at the end of q1. And I think what's gonna happen is really interesting, you're gonna have a handful of companies who have a great handle on their business, who actually project strength.

I know what I'm doing, I know how I'm going to perform. The levers are in my control, I'm going to invest for the future, I'm going to go and consolidate a market, those companies will get rewarded. And then anybody else who has a whiff of indecision, or whose structural business is flawed, and then they use all of these other issues as a reason to explain their flawed business will get completely whacked.

Two examples over this last week, and we had this debate, you know, that people were talking about restoration hardware and the CEO basically saying the sky is falling and there's a huge recession. And, you know, my comment is, well, if you take the other side of the coin, restoration hardware sells overpriced crappy furniture into a housing market that's basically shut down because refi rates are at 5%.

There's the other explanation for why his business is crappy. It doesn't necessarily have to be a recession. And just to clearly define it, a recession is two quarters or more of negative growth, the economy contracting. And we've had about a dozen of these since World War Two. And we've had a couple of them in our lifetimes.

Obviously, the COVID situation created a recession for a couple of quarters. And then we had the Great Recession, which lasted I think that was almost was over a year, right? That was six quarters, I think five quarters. So these happen every 10 years or so. So if we do have a recession, and it it seems implausible to me that we would have negative growth for two quarters.

So the other the other interesting company, for example, was US Bank. Yeah, I mean, I think that's a good question. I think that's a UiPath, which UiPath got whacked today 25 or 26%. And what they actually reported was that they thought that they were going to increase ARR to, you know, 1.2 billion from like 900.

That's a that's a huge at that scale, to grow 35 40% in ARR in the year is really quite incredible. But their ACV numbers and the revenue numbers were a little soft, they got whacked. And now they're trading, you know, like 11 times ARR. So you have some of these companies that are going to blame macro headwinds, but they may actually just have a, you know, a flawed business model, you'll have these other companies who actually overperform, but may have been a little bit too highly valued toolkit valuation reset on any faint weakness.

And so you know, it's going to be really up to the CEOs and these boards when they write their earnings releases. To be very precise, those that have a hand on their business, I think are going to get really rewarded. And those that don't need to blame the macro market and just get all the bad news out now, because this is the quarter, it doesn't get any better from here, sacks, best ways to fight a recession, cut spending, I'm sorry, increased government spending, cut taxes.

Where are we at in terms of how many bullets we have left to do these kind of things, we don't really have a, you know, ability to spend more money. And I guess, lowering interest rates is the other way to stimulate it. Do we even know we're going into a recession?

So do you think we're going into a recession? If we are? Is there a way to reverse it through the normal tactics, we're definitely going into a slowdown. And whether it becomes a recession to be determined, I think there's a very good chance because we already were headed for a slowdown because of interest rate increases because of inflation.

And now on top of it, we've got all the supply chain disruptions from this war. And we know that, you know, I'm plugging the hundred and 44 million Russians in the Russian economy, we've basically unplugged that from the global economy. So that's going to hit our economy if there's a little bit of delayed reaction there.

So these are all negative indicators. And I think we're either gonna have a recession, or something very close to it. And they typically last 11 months, right, sex. So how long would the recession be? And it's typically 11 months, two quarters, six quarters. Yeah, normally, it's like 18 months till you get back to where you're supposed to be or something like that.

But you're right, we have very limited tools to fight this because we've already spent, I mean, we've already broken the glass in case of emergency for COVID, we spent something like 10 trillion. By the way, that's what caused a lot of the problems is we flooded the zone with liquidity.

Now we're trying to mop that up with interest rate increases that's slowing down the economy. So there's nothing left to really spend. You can't really drop interest rates much more. And if you do, you'll get much worse inflation. So it's going to be a lot of money. So it seems to me that we don't have a lot of tools here.

And we could end up with something like a stack 1970 style stagflation, where we continue to see inflation with a slowing economy. Let's unpack what that experience would be like. Economy slowing, there's less job openings, people are spending less money, while the prices of goods and services continue to go up.

That's why they spend less money. And that's why there's there's recession. Like I mean, you're paying six bucks for gas or you have less money to go out for gas. You don't have to go out for dinner every week, right? You pay, you know, twice as much for an airplane ticket, you don't spend as much on the hotel.

I mean, like, you know, the rippling effects of the rate of inflation are decreased spending. And there isn't enough time for you know, the the new job creation engine to catch up. And you know, without a stimulus effect, you're in trouble. That's really the situation we're in. And that's what you know, can kind of cause the stagflationary effects to drag on.

Yeah, I mean, it's a big part of the recession. It's like, you know, we've had a recession, but almost every other time we've had a recession. People couldn't find jobs. And I can remember them qualitatively people saying, Hey, I want to get a job, I need more money, I can't find one.

And now we're sitting here with more jobs, then we can fill still over 10 million jobs available, and people are still resigning from jobs. So how do we factor in the labor market, Shema? Well, it's all this is super confounding. It's it's not like previous ones. It's not necessarily about the supply demand dynamics of labor, but our social policies related to our birth rate and immigration.

I posted this article link for you guys to read in the Atlantic. But basically, our birth rate in 2021 absolutely fell off a cliff. It was less than 300,000 net births in the entire country. And net birth is defined as immigration plus births minus deaths. And when you look under the covers, you know, we had two really discontinuously bad things, one that was that has been building since Trump and one that was acute.

The thing that was acute was that in 2021, after we had vaccines, which is crazy thing to think about, we had a million deaths, basically, right because of COVID. So that's a million people that largely exited the workforce plus or minus. Obviously, some not not all of those people working, but I think the overwhelming majority, probably 50% we have 50 60% of our participation, so more, more, I suspect, more, I suspect more.

I suspect some could have been retired, right? That's what I'm saying. I think it's probably like 70 80% of the people that died were probably in the workforce in some way. So you had you had all those people leave. We have a, you know, troublesome issue with birth and birth rates.

All Western economies do basically as a standard of living goes up. And as the equality between men and women go up, birth rates go down without commenting on the the dynamics of that. That's just that is just true. And so, you know, we should celebrate that in the sense that like, you know, you want increasing equality, you want people to have more choice, etc, all these things.

So how do you make up for the gap? While you make up for the gap in immigration, and the problem is that Trump closed the door. Yeah, and Biden has not reopened the door. And so you know, we have had a meaningful fall off in immigration. It doubly compounded because then because of COVID, we had border controls, and we shut the borders completely.

So even if you know, you were a student that will come here, you know, you may not be able to get into the country. But you know, the odds were maybe you'd get a master's or a PhD and then stay here, none of those people, so nobody can get in.

So that's the real problem that we have to solve Jason, which is that you're not going to get you know, families to all of a sudden have kids, you know that that's a 18 year problem if you started that problem today to get them into the workforce or 25 year problem.

So immigration is really the only solution and we don't really have the sponsorship to do that at a domestic policy level. Well, and then you add to that, you know, the fact that we're now we're down in the 60% of maybe ticking up to Yeah, 62% of looks like on that Fred website.

So we need to greatly increase the number of people in the country and the people participating in the labor force if we're to avoid a recession, right? More people working, we need more economic, we need to boost it. Yeah, I would encourage everybody to read this Atlantic article because I think Nick Thompson does a very good job of just basically saying that we need to boost immigration.

Jason Cosper: Yeah, I think that's a great point. I think summarizing the issues that we have. Freebird, what are your thoughts here? Is it getting more people to participate in the labor force importing more people both? And then how do you how do you get that to actually happen?

Sorry, Derek Thompson, not Nick Thompson. Look, I'm, I'm not an economist, but I don't know if that really solves the acute runaway problem that we're experiencing right now. One thing I'll say about inflation, let's say you're running a company, and you raise your prices, you're not often going back and dropping your prices again.

And, you know, you have to have a catch up effect for income and savings to make up for the increment in pricing. And that's really, you know, a key driver right now that the rate at which prices are going up, and you know, sure, gas and other commodities trade back down.

But consumables, durables typically stay high after they inflate, you end up having, you know, kind of this inflationary effect. And then you have to have a catch up effect. And then you have to have a catch up effect. And then you have to have a catch up effect. And then you have to have a catch up effect.

And then you have to have a catch up effect. And it's really hard to kind of just grow your way out of that. So, you know, without stimulus, and so, you know, I'm not sure that the labor solution is going to solve this kind of acute problem that we're going to be facing that that seems to be dragging on.

What do you think about the argument, though, that there's a substitutional effect, meaning, yeah, when prices of goods rise, people find cheaper goods. And then separately, what happens is, you know, part of a productive society is you make better and more interesting. And more useful goods and services. And, you know, incrementally, especially if you use technology, those things tend to be deflationary.

So they do get cheaper, meaning, you know, you used to pay for photo storage, Dropbox comes along gives it away for free, then Google comes along and gives everything away for free. Yep. So you have this deflationary natural deflationary effect where you tend to save money on the things you use to pay for because a lot of people find that they can build a different kind of business model to monetize giving it to you or subsidizing.

I think that's the key to math is that if people if prices go up, that entrepreneurs are gonna look at say, you know what, there's a better way to do this. You want to go on vacation, you want to stay somewhere for two weeks, you can't afford the hotel.

Okay, let's try this new thing like this Airbnb, somebody rents you their apartment, they move in with another person. For the week, you use their apartment and you can rent for 150 night instead of 350 at a hotel, that that pricing, when there's runaway pricing, people come up with better solutions for people.

Yeah, I think I think that that's generally been true. And by the way, the, if you think about the, you know, the, the biggest areas that have been sticky, which are energy policy and housing policy, the way that we'll have to unlock better pricing in those markets will be because we deregulate not not by increasing regulation, but by massive deregulation, you know, we have massive NIMBY ism up and down the stack that prevents us from building the housing supply we need, that has to get fixed, right.

And we need to have better energy policy, like for example, you take a state like California, you know, it's the most populous state in the country, it's the richest state in the country, but it has an electricity prices that are three times higher than the national average. That doesn't make any sense.

Right. And so you know, how do you expect renewables to really compete? When people are still incentivized to fire coal and not gas, it doesn't make any sense whatsoever, these prices cannot be this high, they're high because of lobbying and because of lobbyists, and special interests. And so if you rip that stuff out by deregulation, you actually allow, as you said, Jason, entrepreneurs to do the right thing, and they will push prices back down.

Sacks, what's your question? Well, I thought you might want to comment on what we're talking about entrepreneurs creating products and services that lower prices that then you know, maybe create the the exit ramp here to inflation, and stagflation, some combination of that that's going to be upon us. Sure.

I mean, there's a lot of entrepreneurial energy in the US it's strong there that technology does cause deflation, it's deflationary. But this is not going to help us get out of what's coming over the next year or two. Look, the bottom line is that we had a massive government overreaction to COVID, in which we printed and spent way too much money, something like 10 trillion plus.

And, you know, this is the classic hangover after the party, you know, they put the punch bowl out for way too long. And now we're all gonna pay the price for it. They spike the punch bowl. They spike the punch bowl big time. Yeah. And we're already seeing it and think about like all the advice we're giving our portfolio companies, they're like, Oh, we're going to get a lot of money.

We're going to get a lot of money. And we're already seeing it. And think about like all the advice we're giving our portfolio companies, they're like, Oh, we're going to get a lot of money. We're giving our portfolio companies to slow down their spending and extend their runway. Every board in America is going to be doing that.

So it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. But this yield curve inversion is, you know, fairly predictive. I mean, it's not perfect. But, you know, CNBC had this report today. Historically, it's met when the yield curve inverts, there's been a better than two thirds chance of recession at some point in the next year, and greater than 98% chance of recession at some point in the next two years.

So it looks to me like... It looks to me like... It needs to be inverted for at least 90 days, typically. But again, I think if you look at the forward spread from the Fed, it's more accurate than the two stands. But your point is the same. Something is happening that we need to take seriously.

And none of the outcomes here are growthy good outcomes. And the policy wonks in Washington really need to figure out what their position is going to be on this stuff and what they push next in terms of legislation, because we're going to be going into the back half of the year in a midterm election where the economy is slowing, interest rates are high, prices are high.

This is a horrible setup for the day. Yeah, and let's think about what the priorities of the administration have been throughout all of this. I mean, one year ago, they did that whole $2 trillion American rescue plan. They were warned by people like Stanley Druckenmiller that retail was back, the consumer was back, and yet they still printed $2 trillion.

That caused a huge amount of inflation. It totally backfired. And that wasn't the end of it. If they had their way, we would have had $4 trillion more of spending in the whole build back better. Now Biden just floated this new trial balloon over this unrealized gains tax. So last year, they floated the trial balloon about basically doing a wealth tax, and everyone hated it.

And now they just proposed it again. It was insane. And even when they brought it out, they leaked that they had Manchin's support behind it. And then the next day, Manchin came out and disavowed it and said, "No, no, no, I don't support this." I mean, we don't want to talk about this.

I mean, what is the administration thinking? It makes no sense. Well, I mean, clearly... And then on foreign policy, I mean, I strongly believe we could have cut a deal on Ukraine a year ago to defuse this whole situation before it turned into a war. Now we got a war over there.

Well, let's talk about what they should do. I mean, number one on the list for me is we should be getting every entrepreneur from around the world, any really intelligent person who wants to go to graduate school here into this country. We need to have like a Manhattan project to just scoop up all these millions of dollars and scoop up all these mutant geniuses from around the world and get them here and get them starting companies here.

You don't even need to do that. It was working. And don't fuck it up. Under Clinton, Bush, Obama, all you had to do was just leave it alone. Everybody who was any good at anything wanted to come to the United States, including the three of us. Yep. And all of a sudden, it's like, "Nah, it's good.

Yeah, I pass. Okay, I guess." Yeah, well, I mean, if you set out that you hate entrepreneurs and you resent them for success, don't be surprised if they want to stay in a country that wads them. But I don't think that's what it was. I think it was much crueler than that.

I think that we went to a posture that said, "Okay, you know what? Net new immigration was viewed as something that was displacing people, wasn't a net value creator, was, you know, in some cases viewed very xenophobically. And that is really problematic because it's actually about a large population issue.

And it's about how you construct a healthy, thriving population. Yeah, this was Trump's worst. Yeah, worst approach. He was best approach, clearly not starting wars, worst approach, shutting the borders down for some populous reason when we actually need people in the country. Well, hold on. But see, the way you just framed that is why I think there's a problem, which is, look, obviously, the immigration is a very fraught issue.

But the choice that's being presented to us by our political parties is either you're in favor of immigration, you know, like bringing in all these superstars, like we have founders in Silicon Valley, that makes sense. Or you're in favor of open borders. I mean, why are those the two choices that we either have H1Bs or you have an open border?

I mean, that makes no sense. I mean, what we should have is a sensible immigration. First of all, we should strip the border security issue out of it. Because whatever the number of immigrants that you want to allow. Everyone should be pro border security. I mean, we need a point-based system.

We need to be have a reasonable discussion between Democrats and Republicans about a point-based system. There's a qualitative distance. You've advocated that for a long time. And it works in Canada. And you're I think you're absolutely Australia, New Zealand, UK, they all have this. It's like, what does our country need right now?

Okay, do we need people, you know, who are laborers? Or do we need people starting companies? Do we need, you know, scientists? I don't know if you've noticed, but to me, this is very equivalent to the removal of SAT and ACT scoring and admissions in college. Explain the notion of merit, the notion of performance is not one that really matters in this country as much right now, as much as the notion of equity.

And equity really has kind of become the mainstay of not just how we're making policy decisions on a local level. But a lot of these kind of national issues are becoming about equity. And it's about, you know, equitable consideration for wealth creation for existing citizens in the United States, and the perception that a minority of people or some majority of people actually missed the out on significant wealth creation over the past couple of decades as globalization and technology advances have accelerated growth in our economy.

And the share of that growth has been disproportionately assigned to a small percentage of people. And I think it is that same notion that drives a lot of the kind of sub decisions, the local decisions that we're making, as well as these important policy decisions. And the point that I think is critical, it's really hard to get across to everyone, or anyone for that matter.

Is that, you know, and I've talked about this a lot, but progress brings everyone forward, but it doesn't bring everyone forward symmetrically, right? Progress brings everyone forward. Give an example, Freeberg. So Amazon's a great example. I've used it a lot. With Amazon, we've all been given access to more goods and cheaper goods than we would have had before.

So we all benefit from that progress, right? Everyone can get on an app and get a friggin inflatable swimming pool delivered to their home and the vitamins they need within 24 hours. At half the price of what it would have cost them to go down to the local Ace Hardware store.

That's an incredible benefit for all of us. So our share of wallet on that sort of goods has gone down. Therefore, we can spend more, get access to more stuff, and we're all prospering. And if you think back to what life was like 30 years ago, 20 years ago, to those of you who, you know, were spending money 20 years ago or whatever, it's an incredibly different proposition than what we had back then.

And it really has changed the world and changed all of us as consumers ability to consume more. That's amazing. The problem is, Jeff Bezos is worth $160 billion. So everyone looks at that and they want to land base Jeff Bezos and they want to say this is unfair. And equity becomes the discussion, which is why is one guy worth $160 billion?

The reality is he benefited everyone. Everyone got benefit from the value that he helped create in this world in this market. And then the reaction is, we got to stop this from happening. We can't let people be worth $160 billion without putting their eye on the point that you know what, I'm spending three grand a year less because of this possible because of this technology that he brought to market.

And so there's a lot of these solutions that I would say, are progressive, they progress us all as a society, everything from biotech, to technology and software to any sort of business or services innovation that people are willing to pay money for that people are willing to embrace in an open and free market.

And then what happens is the spoils of that progress aggregate in a minor in a small way to a small number of people. And that's the payoff in capitalism. But when that happens over and over again, for 250 years, you fast forward and by the way, a lot of those compound, people wake up and they say, I don't want that anymore.

And they miss the fact that progress is taken for granted. And here we are, we want to give up progress, and we want to get equity. And it's going to cause a real ripple effect that's going to last for decades. And it's not the first time we've seen it right.

This has happened historically, over cycles that last hundreds of years. And it's happening now in the United States and in the entire Western world. And I think it's going to be really unfortunate, generally for progress. And all the ones, all the advocates for equity are going to kind of what's the solution?

I think you're totally right. What's the solution? Because that's it's just a really sad. I've thought about this a lot. And you know, I look at what China did. And everyone's going to say I'm pro China. But what was interesting about China recently, is they ratchet up and they ratchet down that free market system.

So they allow progress, and then they disallow the process. And then they disallow progress when the equity meter goes the wrong way. And so if you kind of think about an equity meter and a progress meter, you have to balance those two over time, because otherwise, what happens is you spring back, and then the springing back is when governments change revolutions happen, you know, democracy falls apart, autocracies arise, all those sorts of awful things.

And really, I would say those cyclical things that happen, I don't want to characterize any of them as good or bad, but the cyclical things that happen with society over time. And so you know, that is effectively what's happening guys, like the ultra high tax rate, the regulatory regime, you know, the government coming in and stopping Facebook, I mean, these sorts of behaviors are almost like an attempt to mute and ratchet down both inequity, as well as the, you know, unfortunate side effect of progress.

And I think you're basically punishing excellence. And that is challenging for long term growth, minimizing progress to improve the the the growth of the economy. So I think that's a really important point. the rate of equity of distribution of games, right and it's it's very hard, because, by the way, what you're also doing is you're relating a first derivative in a second derivative effect.

And so you know, first order and second order effect. So it becomes a really difficult thing to and people don't really see it this way. People see kind of the very, you know, myopic view of I got to redistribute wealth, I got to help people that are out of jobs, these guys have only seen their income go up by 10% while everyone else's income has gone up by 40%.

And so you know, politicians, you know, legislators react to that circumstance. But the zooming out is that circumstance arose as we all made progress with respect to security, with respect to health, with respect to food availability, with respect to consumables being cheaper, etc, etc, all these great things that progress has given us.

And you know, there's a ratcheting effect. The hope I have is that that ratcheting isn't too binary, it doesn't flip too far back the other way too fast. In which case you have a socialist state arise a revolution arise, you know, all the things that we've seen kind of come out of people just canceling AP math in California, precisely, precisely.

And then and then the rippling effects of no more AP math and no more SATs is, you know, row row, like, you know, yeah, fast forward 20 MIT brought back the, I don't know if you saw this week, MIT brought back SATs as a qualifier. After they paused it, I think a lot of people are starting to realize this is a road to nowhere.

Sachs, what do you think is to Chamath's point? Like, is there a solution to get America behind excellence and pragmatic, you know, kind of solutions for immigration? And if there is a way to do that, how would you do it? Well, I think like we're talking about, you got to kind of unpack the issue.

So like we talked about strip border security out of it, don't make that part of it, then I think you got to differentiate between high skill and low skill immigration, like what you call the point system. I mean, if you look at whose founding companies in Silicon Valley, something like 40% of startups are based in Silicon Valley.

And so you're talking about, okay, we have a lot of people in Silicon Valley, but we also have a lot of people in the United States. And so we're talking about, you know, the first generation of immigrants, and then we have, you know, the second generation of immigrants, and then we have the third generation of immigrants.

And so we're talking about, you know, the first generation of immigrants is not the first generation of immigrants, and then we have the second generation of immigrants, and then we have the third generation of immigrants. And so we're talking about a lot of the same stuff. And so, you know, we're talking about a lot of the same stuff.

And so, you know, you're talking about, here's people who need amnesty, because they're being prosecuted, persecuted in their country, and they're here because of humanitarian reasons. Here's a bucket for high performers, who are going to add to our economy and create jobs. And then here's another bucket, which is a lottery and a lineup system, hey, you want to come here because you don't have skill, but you want to come here, because the country is so great, okay, you know, each of those buckets is going to have its own process, and your your odds might be different in each bucket.

You know, is that so hard for people to grow? Right. It shouldn't be. You know, we're, we're sitting for in the economy. I mean, it's very easy for us to say this, because we are sitting in Silicon Valley. And for us, immigration is an economic good, it's a benefit.

But if you are in a part of the country or a part of the economy, where you're in a low wage job, maybe you're a service employee, or you're a union employee in the Midwest, the more immigrants that are let in that are low skill, they compete with you and drive your wages down.

And that's why people are against it. So that's basically the conundrum is as long as you're talking about immigration as being a single thing, it's going to have a lot of political opposition. That's why we need to, you know, bifurcated between high school and low skill, high school people, and exactly less low skill, the least if you had to rank them from least controversial to most controversial, I think letting in high skilled labor is probably the least controversial thing.

Then, and there is always controversy around that. And I think that's the biggest thing that we need to be thinking about. And I think that's the biggest thing that we need to be thinking about. And I think that's the biggest thing that we need to be thinking about. And I think that's the biggest thing that we need to be thinking about.

Some people agree, some people disagree, should these people be considered refugees? Should they not? How many of your family members should you be able to sponsor? How many not, etc, etc. And that's somewhat controversial. But I think we can all agree the most controversial bucket are folks that would otherwise come that would be considered lower skill, because they are the ones that really put pressure in very practical, measurable ways into the economy.

And we just have to, to your point, segregate and differentiate how we think about this problem. Because again, if you take immigration, the word away, and actually just use immigration as an input to this equation on population stability, we have population instability right now. So unless we figure out something between live births and deaths, which I don't think we're going to solve tomorrow.

Oh, it's interesting. And a very large imbalance that our economy in our country cannot really recover from, you know what it's you we sparked by thinking there, it really is a framing issue, we should not call high skilled labor coming here. As immigration, we should be flipping that to talent acquisition, we should be looking at it as America is trying to get more talent here.

So we can win the industries that matter. And if we looked at it as this is talent acquisition has nothing to do with immigration. This is us going out and sourcing the smartest people to come here. So our companies win against other companies in the global economy to create more jobs for American talent acquisition could be something we could be investing in, we should be thinking, how do we win that all the problems that ALS, the solution is in some hardworking group of men and women, of which some will be entrepreneurs who want to be here.

You know, we're trying to figure out how to actually build our own chips while there are semiconductor experts getting trained, whether here or abroad, who would want to be here to do that job on behalf of the United States. Right? We want to figure out climate independence. There are men and women being trained here and abroad, who want to be here and solve that problem on behalf of the United States on and on and on and on.

And that's what it means to be in on use a sports analogy, you know, the LA Lakers, right? That's what it means to be, you know, the the New England Patriots, everybody wants to play for you. And so when you're in that position, and you have that branding tailwind, you have to use it to your advantage to stack the deck in your favor so that you're constantly winning championships.

Otherwise, you're being really derelict in your duty. And I think, you know, hopefully, if people look at the broad population level issue that we just exposed because of COVID, there was a stat in this article as an example, in the county of Los Angeles, we are now in the last 20 years, we've seen a 50% reduction in the birth rate in LA, from 150,000 births a year to about 100.

And if you forecast that forward, you know, before the turn of the century, the county of Los Angeles will have zero net births. If you run if you run if you run the that's insane. Yeah. So we need to figure out how to solve this problem. Because it's a, it's a it really impacts GDP, it impacts all these other issues that freebird just talked about as well, the sense of equality and fairness, if we're not creating and growing, we are not going to fight over how to split a shrinking pie.

And that does tend to lead to revolution. Yeah, that's when people it could get really gnarly. We're not growing, entrepreneurs are not coming here, new jobs are not being created. Imagine if Amazon wasn't created, the historical implications for what freeberg said are really well defined in history. If you go back 1000s of years, you look at every single time, you know, an empire goes through that period of decline, when they have net negative growth, economic growth, and they have this sort of rising populism, what they end up doing is they end up fighting.

And they have different ways of fighting, right, but they end up fighting over how to reallocate a shrinking pie. And there are many of those outcomes when they fight that ends up in, you know, really turbulent moments in history. And that's where this wealth tax. Yeah, that's where we have a responsibility to make sure you don't end up going through, you know, a Russia scenario, a China scenario, you know, and there are more productive ways to solve these problems.

Well, that's where the wealth tax that was floated, which seems that's the DOA already, but this concept of everybody having who's over $100 billion having to assess all their worth and give 20% back minimum each year is that dividing of the pie and allocate less money towards Can we all agree that like, you know, on the margins, when you make a lot of money, you can and should pay more taxes.

I don't think that's a super controversial idea. You know, on the margins, if you are a massive polluter, you should pay some taxes to compensate for the damage you're creating to the environment. These are not controversial ideas. The problem is that, you know, what Saks said is true, you take a sensible concept, and then you pervert it because you have to contort it with all this language to make it political, and it loses all of its value.

And so for example, you know, why does the administration have to write this law potential law or proposal in a way that so obviously violates the Constitution of the United States? Are they that dumb? I don't think they're that dumb. But they do it to appease some political aspect of the Democratic Party.

And then as a result, it becomes DOA. Within eight minutes of it being announced, Manchin says this is dead. What is the point of that theater? It's virtual signaling. Yeah, aren't you a donor? You should know, right? What would they tell you? I mean, what's the Democratic Party saying?

What they would say? I think the way off the record is that these were sacrificial totems to the progressive left, meaning that they do it for window dressing to destroy like it's like throwing a cat a ball of yarn. You know, that populist progressive left is becoming a bigger base than it was historically.

In the downright party it is. I'm not sure how big it is. But in the downright party, yeah, look, it's where all the energy is the dark hair party. It's where a lot of the donors are. That Yeah, that is who's driving the agenda. The Democratic Party today. That is why the Democrats are going to get schlacked in November read Roy to share his sub stack.

He is the Democratic political consultant who wrote the emerging Democratic majority predicting this is back in 2002. He wrote a book about how there would be a new Democratic coalition of young voters and minorities and women, and they would come together and that would create, you know, Democratic majorities and democratic presidents forever.

And then Obama wins in 2008. And it looks like two shares predictions coming true. And he recently the last two years has been warning that that something's happened that he could never predicted, which is that working class voters are now moving out of the Democratic Party. And not just whites, but also Hispanics and Asians, even black voters who are working class are all moving to the Republican Party.

So he believes the Republican Party is losing its national majority. Why? Because progressives have taken over and on cultural and social issues. They are more liberal than the working class of this country. So basically, what's happened is the Democrats have become a professional class party. And the Republicans are in the process of transforming into a working class party.

And that's turning everything upside down. But ultimately, you know, with young kid winning in Virginia last year, and I think the Republicans on generic ballot are up like what plus 10 plus 12. I mean, they're going to have a huge, I think wave in November. You know, you got to remember that professionals meaning college educated voters are only about a third of the electorate, I think about 37%.

And then the other 63% are working class. The working class does not like this extreme, social cultural progressive agenda. They don't like seeing their statues ripped down. They don't like this sort of what they see as kind of this, this antagonism towards American history and American icons. They don't believe in, in socialism, you know, and so on down the line.

And the Democratic Party is increasingly speaking only to itself. I mean, they are in an echo chamber. And I think these progressives are gonna have to lose a few elections before they realize, I mean, the same thing happened to the Democratic Party. Back in the 1980s, right, you had Ronald Reagan, and then George Herbert Walker Bush win three landslide elections, 1980, 1984, 88.

And then the Democrats nominate these like horrible candidates, Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, Dukakis, and then who comes along? Bill Clinton comes along. Easy on the Greeks, easy on the Greeks. Dukakis was pretty great. Okay, like we found the one fan. We found the one fan. He was terrible. Yeah, who comes along in 1992?

Bill Clinton. And he has this whole new faction within the Democratic Party, the DLC. And his explicit mandate was to lead them back to the center. And then he chooses Al Gore as his running mate to double down on that image. I don't think Al Gore actually was that centrist.

I think he's that, but his image at that time was that he was pretty centrist. He was. So, so you had, yes, I mean, I think at that time. So their Democratic Party had to lose for about 12 years before they nominated a candidate and put him at the leadership of the party who could drag them back to the center.

Now, listen, I mean, all we have right now are foreshadowings of this. We have the Youngkin victory last year. We have the fact those three school board members in San Francisco got kicked out. We'll see what happens to Chase Boudin on June 7th. So we're getting these glimmers and I think November will be a big test.

But where I think this is going to be a big test is when we get to the end of the year. So, I think November will be a big test. But where I think this is going to be a big test is when we get this thing is headed is that the working class voters of this country don't like this radical progressive shift in the Democratic Party.

And the Democratic Party is going to keep losing until they're willing to make changes. Well, immigration is just such an easy one. And according the working person is what the Democrats did forever. So I don't know how they how they can screw this up. But remember, working class voters don't work class voters are not in favor of immigration, J.

Cal. They do not want unlimited number of immigrants coming. They don't want to see their family members driving their wages down. But they do want their family members to be allowed in. So for the folks who know you talk to you talk to Hispanic voters who are citizens in America, they are not in favor of unlimited immigration, because I'm going to wait for them.

J. Cal. Reasonable. I'm telling you that it's not it's not like what you think. The more the higher you are economically in the social strata, the more professional you are, the more you like immigration. Because like for people like us, we like immigrants, because they found companies and we invest in them, we see the economic vitality that they bring.

But if you're a working class, okay, you do not want that wage pressure. You just don't. So unless the Democrats figure out a way to talk about it the way we're talking about it, where we separate high skill and low skill, they will lose with that message. All right, let's get into some other things happening in the market.

SEC is proposing a new set of rules to regulate SPACs. I wonder if anybody here can chime in on this. Well, I wrote I wrote an editorial in Bloomberg, basically a year ago, spelling out a bunch of new regulations that I thought the SEC should adopt. They adopted a lot of them in this draft.

So I think that that's really good. They missed a couple of key things. And this is again, tying back to this other thing when we're in this phase right now where we are really questioning how capitalism should work. I think that there are two reactions that people can have.

One is you pass more regulation that entrenches existing advantages. And the other is you pass regulation that either deregulates or democratizes the market. And if I had to cast the half of my proposals that the SEC adopted, I would say it falls more into the first bucket than the second.

And Jason, you've spoken to the second bucket of laws that the SEC could also change, which is, you know, it's not just about the market. It's about the market. It's about the market. It's about the people. And so it's in their power to give people an on ramp to prove that they are qualified and accredited so that they can participate in some of these really, you know, vibrant ways of making money beyond just investing in the S&P 500, like investing in startups, if you if you're educated and capable of doing.

The SEC at the same time proposed a bunch of legislation around reporting requirements for ESG. And if you look at both of these two buckets of laws, I think they're really good ideas. And I think that there's some good concepts in it. But who really wins? I think if you look at it, the American Bar Association had a huge victory here because the amount of incremental regulation is going up, which means you know, what was a 300 page filing with the SEC will now be 350 pages, right?

I think that benefits lawyers. I think it benefits consultants, I think it benefits the accountant. So I think it benefits the ecosystem of people who are working in the industry, right? And so I think that's the first part of the question, and I think that's the second part of the question.

And I think that's the third part of the question. And then I think that's the fourth part of the question. And I think that's the fifth part of the question. So I think that's the fifth part of the question. And I think that's the last part of the question.

And then I think that's the last part of the question. But I think that's the last part of the question. But I think that's the last part of the question. And I think that's the last part of the question. And I think that's the last part of the question.

And I think that's the last part of the question. And I think that's the last part of the question. And I think that's the last part of the question. half of what they should be doing, which is making these on ramps better built. Generally speaking, what do you think happens in the SPAC space?

We had 600 of them. It's gonna solidate to the 10 of us that know what we're doing. Just like, you know, look, the IPO rules are extremely sophisticated. Did it hurt Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs as IPO business? No, it just meant that the 95 small banks that did IPO goes went away and it consolidated to six and the league tables, you know, just churned between the six JP Morgan one year is the top, you know, then it's Morgan Stanley, then it's Goldman Sachs, then it's B of A, then it's Credit Suisse.

Similarly, SPACs will consolidate around six or seven players and you know, we'll do most of the business. What do you think Friedberg of this new SEC announcement that they're considering climate disclosures for public trading companies, this would basically not only what they're doing in terms of consuming or, you know, allowing greenhouse gases emissions, but also this scope three concept, your inputs, what is your supply chain doing?

And what are your consumers doing? So if you're making the iPhone, what happens to the iPhone when the consumer gets rid of it? Or what did it take to get those minerals out of the ground to make the iPhone? What do you think? Is this a net benefit? Is it the lawyers win?

Or does measuring all this actually mean we're going to see publicly traded companies manage it better? A lot of opting into it already, like Google and Apple are doing it on their own accord. But what do you think generally of this? Regulation? Well, I'll say, let me just say something on the specs.

And I'll answer that question. You know, if you read the comment that the first SEC proposed rule, it was to amend the definition of a blank check company to make the liability safe harbor for forward looking statements, such as business forecasts unavailable in filings by specs. So, you know, this was, you know, I think one of the primary points of appeal.

Over the past couple of years, we've all been private market, sophisticated private market investors. When we take a pitch or hear a pitch from a company, we all have the experience and the know how, not always correctly, but at least we know what to look for what to ask.

And over time have learned through our wounds and our failures to appropriately diligence forecast and understand what they mean and what they say. And, you know, because the public markets historically through an IPO are available to retail investors, you know, they're not going to be able to get into the market.

And so, you know, generally, whatever the definition is of unqualified or, you know, folks who may not have the level of sophistication that, you know, some regulatory body has deemed is needed to be able to do that level of diligence. The statements that are made in an IPO and an S1 need to be kind of factually referenced referenceable.

And that's not true when it comes to forecasts. And that's why they're not included in S1s in an IPO. But in a spec, the appeal was you can tell your forward looking forecast, paint the rosy picture like you would for a startup. And then theoretically, the investor should make an assessment of the risk and the upside, and the objectives that the business is saying they're going to go shoot for and achieve.

And it's pretty evident, I think we all knew this, you know, coming out of last year that, you know, many investors made investments on the basis of those forecasts, you know, being to some degree, reasonably achievable or likely achievable. And it turns out in many cases, they were not and were not achieved.

And that's a big motivation here. So the real fundamental question with respect to Chima's point about markets, is how much do you want to have the government and a regulator play the role of deciding who is and who isn't sophisticated enough to make an assessment about a business's forward looking prospects?

Or should we simply keep all forward looking prospects? Or, you know, forecasts like this, you know, out of those documents, and it's an important conversation to have, because for years, people have been saying, I want to invest in private companies. I'm not a qualified investor, therefore, I'm only going to be able to invest in public companies.

And as we're seeing the problem with investing in private companies or speculative companies, is that you're investing on the come, and more often than not, that doesn't end up happening. And that's a really hard lesson to learn. And SPACs have kind of forced them the retail market that have not historically invested in private companies to learn that lesson very fast.

This is why by the way, in my what I what I was asking the SEC to do on top of the things that they already did was I said, make us all invest our own money. You know, make the sponsor really monetarily at risk, I've invested a minimum of $100 million in every single deal I've done.

As a SPAC sponsor. That's a lot of money, more skin in the game and disclosing that would be great. And maybe even having a clearinghouse where you could see the percentage of cash to the ultimate raise that the promoter has that stuff for great all of that stuff, Jason is in the spirit of disclosure and transparency.

I just want to say what do you think you still think it's important to have forward looking statements and needs? inspect? I mean, if that ends up becoming, you know, the cornerstone of this proposed regulation, I don't think it's a I don't think it's a cornerstone. I think what I think the thing is that there are really important businesses that need good stewards to help them get into the public markets to raise money to fund their business.

And there are some people who really understand that and there are many others who don't. And the thing that that the SEC should make a decision on is whether just having a bunch of middlemen serves the market better or having a combination of some middlemen and some principles. All competing is better because remember what like what is capitalism really, you have these trapped sources of money, right when you buy an equity, right or you buy a bond, you're putting money into a trapped asset, it's an unproductive asset, it may yield some return.

But it's not really generating it is dead money. Capitalism is about creating an incentive for you to take that money out of that dead asset, that unproductive asset and put it directly into the hands of somebody who will make it productive, I'm going to, you know, build some oil fields, I'm going to make a battery factory, battery factory, I'm going to make shoes, whatever it is, right.

And so, you know, having more competition, that creates the incentives for that process. Yeah. And I think that's what I think is the key to this. I think the key to this is that the process to happen to go from point A to point B should be the goal of the government.

Because in the absence of that, again, going back to the previous conversation, you're going to basically shrink the incentives of productivity. And I don't think that's what anybody wants to have happen. It's an easy solution to all of this, we have a test if you want to drive a car.

And if you want to drive a big car called the truck, you have to get a different test. You want to drive a motorcycle side and take that. And you're going to have to drive a motorcycle side and take that. And you're going to have to drive a motorcycle side and take that.

And you're going to have to drive a motorcycle side and take that. And you're going to have to drive a motorcycle side and take that. And you're going to have to drive a motorcycle side and take that. And you're going to have to drive a motorcycle side and take that.

And you're going to have to drive a motorcycle side and take that. And you're going to have to drive a motorcycle side and take that. And you're going to have to drive a motorcycle side and take that. And you're going to have to drive a motorcycle side and take that.

And you're going to have to drive a motorcycle side and take that. And you're going to have to drive a motorcycle side and take that. And you're going to have to drive a motorcycle concept called materiality that exists in law, which will now again, have to get adjudicated. But say Apple doesn't disclose what's actually happening in their factories.

Somebody can now sue them because they will say that's a material disclosure that you didn't disclose. Well, guess what will happen that'll wind its way in meander its way through the courts. It'll take years, there'll be 10s and 10s of millions of dollars spent on that litigation. Because Apple will vehemently defend the right that it wasn't a material disclosure, because the implications otherwise will be measured in the billions or 10s of billions of dollars.

So who really wins? consultants win? Yeah, trial experts win. The lawyers win lobbyists, lobbyists, I just I just I just want to frame this up for a second. Because I think it's important for people to think about, you know, costs that are external to the business operation, meaning costs that are born by the broader society by other members of society, not the business itself.

So let's say that you're a company that makes products with a lot of sugar. And you know, or cigarettes that you know, we know, when people consume a lot of sugar, cancer goes up, obesity goes up, diabetes goes up, the cost for cancer treatment, the cost for diabetes treatment, the cost for medical treatment associated with smoking or sugar or alcohol is born by a health system, where the ultimate cost is shared by a large group of society by a number all number of members, whether that's a public health insurance program or a private one, there's a group that shares that cost.

And so you as a consumer are not paying that cost today. The question is, should you be paying that cost? And this is true for co2 emissions for carbon emissions. You know, you drive a gas guzzling car, you purchase gasoline, there is carbon that goes in the atmosphere, you're not going to end up individually fixing the carbon out of the atmosphere later, the rest of us are going to have to bear that cost as our homes burn down, you know, as floods cause, you know, the gas to wash away, as all the catastrophe that we're all predicting is going to happen starts to happen.

So the question is, how do you account for those external costs? And then the second question that will arise in a market based system that we have is who's going to pay for those costs. Right now, we all assume those costs, and we don't charge anyone for them. We don't just we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic.

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cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic epidemic associated with cigarettes until we had that big legislation that we don't charge anyone for the obesity epidemic