You've estimated that we'll have AGI by 2030. How will we actually know that we got there? And what may be, quote, move 37 of AGI? So I think there's the sort of blanket testing to just make sure you've got the consistency. But I think there are the sort of lighthouse moments like the move 37 that I would be looking for.

So one would be inventing a new conjecture or a new hypothesis about physics like Einstein did. So maybe you could even run the back test of that very rigorously, like have a cutoff of knowledge cutoff of 1900 and then give the system everything that was, you know, that was written up to 1900 and then see if it could come up with special relativity and general relativity, right?

Like Einstein did. That would be an interesting test. Another one would be, can it invent a game like Go? Not just come up with move 37, a new strategy, but can it invent a game that's as deep, as aesthetically beautiful, as elegant as Go? And those are the sorts of things I would be looking out for.

And probably a system being able to do several of those things, right? For it to be very general, not just one domain. And so I think that would be the signs, at least that I would be looking for, that we've got a system that's AGI level. And then maybe to fill that out, you would also check the consistency, you know, make sure there's no holes in that system either.

And you would be in the room for that probably two or three months before announcing it. And you would just be sitting there trying not to tweet. Something like that. Exactly. It's like, what is this amazing new, you know, physics idea? And then we would probably check it with world experts in that domain, right, and validate it and kind of go through its workings.

And it would be explaining its workings to, yeah, be an amazing moment. Thank you for watching this clip. Please subscribe to the Lex Friedman YouTube channel and consider watching the full episode of the podcast.