BG Squared. This is our BG Squared panel. Everybody knows Friends of the Pod. Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley give it up for our guest. Bill, you predicted five of the last three recessions. A broken clock is still right twice a day. Here we are again. You've sounded the alarm bell and of course you're right.

You've seen this movie before for all of us younger capital allocators who are experiencing it for the second or third time, but you've experienced it a couple more times. Not bad. How do you see it? It's pretty old. How does this one measure up to Great Recession, dot-com bust, '87, and the many ones we've seen in between?

One thing that I think is super important to put this into context, I'll try and tell this quick. I had a meeting once with Howard Marks who I'd wanted to meet for a long period of time. He's a famous bond investor that does a lot of writing. For 15 minutes, he asked me questions about the venture industry.

A lot of structural questions. I told him my answers best I could. He said, "Man, that's a really shitty industry." I said, "Well, why do you say that? What do you mean?" He says, "Cyclical collapse is built into the structure." We have funds that are committed to that have 10 to 15 year lives.

You have low barriers to entry, but you have very high barriers to exit. He felt that it was just systematically set up to rise and crash, rise and crash. One thing that I realized coming out of that is that it doesn't happen like a sine curve, which is what we all imagine when we think of a cyclical business.

It's more like a sawtooth. Risk on is a very slow process. It's reflexive, so it grows and grows and grows and grows. Then risk off tends to be very abrupt. We've seen that here. This cycle, risk on was from '09 to five months ago. That's really well said. Risk off is five months.

The thing that's really tough about that is it requires mental adjustment very quickly because it didn't gradually change. It abruptly changed. Cap charts might have systematic changes. It's not systematic issues that are stuck because too much lick prep relative to the new reality. Valuations have shifted. The cost of capital is radically different.

You may have, on the way up as people took more risk, you tried crazier things. You're willing to make investments in businesses you might not if the cost of capital is a lot lower. You name a stadium for five years as a crypto company. You might do that. Then all of a sudden, it's a lot lower.

Then all of a sudden, it's gone. Now the commitment to naming the stadium is greater than the market cap. I assume you're referring to so far. That may not be true for FTX. Just as an example, it might be a disproportionate value of your market cap. Anyway, it's tough.

In this particular case, because that's what you asked, it turns out '09 wasn't that bad. If we have an '09, that'll be pretty good. Things got turned around pretty quickly. '01 was very abrupt. We didn't really start to see liquidity again until, with a few exceptions, Elon mentioned PayPal, but '05, '06.

It was a long walk in the desert. A lot of great companies were started, but a lot of founders gave up at that time, right? Yeah. Look, I think if you're an early-stage investor or if you're an early-stage founder that's just getting going or even an early-stage company, because if you haven't scaled out yet, this price is going to go up.

If you haven't scaled out yet, this probably hasn't affected you. It could be wonderful. Your access to talent is going to be a lot easier. People are going to be more pragmatic and rational, but it's usually a long window on the other side. The other challenge you have here is in '20, we basically had a mini pullback in March of 2020, but then the Fed hit so hard that things just blasted off again.

Now, you guys have talked about this, but that tool is not in the toolbox. Brad? So one of the things I was talking to somebody last night, and this audience is amazing. I was talking to somebody last night, and they said, "So how does it work? You just get together and talk?" And I said, "What I love about this group is there are hundreds of hours of data and research that we're constantly challenged with.

We all know where we are. We know what just happened." And I think grounding ourselves in just a few facts to try to figure out what the next step is, what the next six months are going to be, because we have founders here trying to run their businesses. Can I raise capital?

Are we bouncing straight back from where we were? So very quickly, this chart just tells us, you know, the iron law of investing is interest rates. A 1% change in rates leads to a 15% or 20% change in a multiple. And so the reason multiples have collapsed here for all these businesses is because expectations as to inflation and rates has changed dramatically.

I hear a lot of talk about 1999, 2000. So if it's all about rates, let's just look at those two things. We plotted them here together. This is 19 to 22 on the bottom. It shows what rates did. We took them to zero. The Fed is now saying our neutral rate is 2% to 3%, and people are hyperventilating.

Look at where we were in 2000. Look at what the cost of capital was in 2000. Crazy, right? And so this idea -- 8% mortgage rates. And by the way, the delta there, right? We went from just above 5 up to 6 and a half, right? So we're talking about going from 2 and a half back to 2 and a half or 3.

But the big question is, are we going back to 2 and a half or 3, or are they behind the curve, lost in the weeds, and we're going to have to go to 4 to 5 to kill inflation? Well, everybody was saying inflation, you know, inflation is here to stay forever.

Remember, when we report on core CPI, it's what happened last month. It is not a forward-looking indicator. So we peaked in core CPI. Consumer price index, explain what it is. Consumer price -- this is the basket of goods and services that we all go out and spend money on.

So the Fed is focused on the demand side of the equation. They know they hopped us up on a bunch of Red Bull and cocaine to survive the pandemic. And now -- I thought you were talking about last night for sacks, but keep going. You still haven't said a word all day.

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I'm going to say a word. I'm going to say a word. I'm going to say a word. I'm going to say a word. I got in trouble once. This is on Bloomberg, so I think you can find this clip. But I was talking to Emily Chang, and she said something to the effect of, "Did you just see this latest Sequoia round?" And I made this joke.

It was a complete joke. It's not true. I was like, "Yeah." I went to Instacart. I bought one mango, had it delivered for free. Then I bought a second mango. I sent an email to Doug Leone, "Thanks for the second mango." What a douche. I bought four mangoes. I bought four grapes.

And I said, "Consumer surplus." I would say- I mean, you can get four grapes whenever you want. It's hard to judge a company from the outside because you can't look at the financials. But the product experience has evolved over a very long period of time. It's actually pretty good.

I suspect there's an asset value there, and whether that can match up with what someone can afford to pay it. All right. We got to wrap. Bill, just a final question here. Wait, wait, wait. We want to know where the markets are going. We want to know where the markets are going.

It's about feeling sincere. Ask them both where the markets are going. All right. Brad, where's the market going to be at this time next year? Answer that question. We will be higher for growth stocks this time next year, but we may very well get there by way of lower and potentially meaningfully lower because the counterfactual to the hyperinflation argument is not...

We can't deliver the counterfactual for at least four to five months. The facts don't exist until we actually see the facts play out. But my suspicion is we return to trend, things become more predictable and investable again, and we bounce back up to the five-year average. All right. Back now for you, Bill.

Final question. Oh, I don't get that one? No. Too easy. You can answer it if you like, but I got a more important one. 6.385% higher. Okay. I know you're not going to answer it, so I got a better one for you. Okay. I'm going to give you a chance to answer it.

Okay. So you're not in the next benchmark fund. Essentially, that means retirement of the Spurs. Now the market's down. You seem like you're a little bit bored. Are you going to get back into early stage investing? Yes or no? And are you missing it? I think... I don't know what that was.

I think I might get intrigued with doing angel stuff the way Bezos did. I don't think I want to practice. I don't want to practice the art taking board seats. I'm still on 10 that I'm serving dutifully, and I've played that game. Maybe similar to what David said about operating a business.

I've played that game. You meet a great founder. They got a good idea. You vibe. You put in a 500K check. Yeah. I'd be open to that. Do you want to tell... I'm very excited about public stocks here, actually. Really? Yeah. Continue. You're excited about what? Public stocks. The valuations are getting super interesting.

Crazy. Such good deals out there. Super interesting. Yeah. You got a presentation? Oh, yeah. I'm not... You guys got to hear this. That's poker at the poker table. J-Cal. J-Cal. It's a great question. Do I have to stay out here for this? Yes. I've been investing for the better part of three or four decades, closer to four, and 10 boards I doodly served on one day.

Every time I shove it all in with kings, your mouth sucks out on me with a 910 suited, and that's just my luck right now. I'll just look at the public market cards. I'll just have... Be liquid. I'll be liquid. All right. Ladies and gentlemen, BG Squared. Thank you.

BG Squared, baby. We'll let your winners ride. Rain Man, David Sack. And it said... We open sourced it to the fans, and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, Wes. I've been queen of Kindle. I've been the queen of Kindle. I've been the queen of Kindle. I've been the queen of Kindle.

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♪ I'm doin' all in. ♪ ♪ I'm doin' all in. ♪