One thing we started last year, and I'd like to repeat it again this year, is all these lovely people came here on their own dime, and I'd like to give them a few minutes to either talk about their latest project or something that they find interesting or just something they want to talk about.

So, Alan, you're down at the end. I got my MBA from Kellogg back in 1982, and, you know, I went to school to learn how to beat the market, and along came Bernard Malkiel's random walk down Wall Street. You know, Fama French is a little new in investing since then, but behavioral finance is a subject that really excites me.

I don't know how I graduated thinking that was a logical, rational thing, but I'm using hindsight bias to see that. Projects, I'm just starting, writing the book was the hardest thing I ever did. I'm a math geek, and Bill Balloon, who I guess is not here, giving me a contract with a due date provided the discipline to do it.

I'm just starting to get the itch for a second book, which would be a little bit broader than investing and include, you know, all the aspects of financial planning from taxes, estate planning, budgeting, in kind of some simple terms, and it would be called something like Roth's Rules of Common Sense, because common sense is not really all that common.

You know, just a couple of philosophical musings. I considered myself unbelievably lucky I didn't have to, I paid $1,550 a year for my medical school tuition, and my graduate school I got for free, and then I started working in 1980, and then I sought away some obscene amount of money with the pension rules, and then got these, you know, security returns in the '80s and '90s that were just beyond belief.

And I sort of felt sorry for, you know, until very recently, for the kids who, you know, were dealing, you know, with, you know, coming out with enormous amounts of debt from school, you know, with overvalued securities to buy into their, you know, their retirement plans. And I sort of, I almost felt guilty about it, but now I don't feel so guilty.

I think that, you know, someone who's 25 or 35 years old and has sought family money again is going to get, you know, more than agreeable returns, perhaps the kinds of returns that I got. I mean, in 1981 you could get 13% CDs, you know, which have a real rate of return of 9% or 8%.

In terms of, you know, where I'm going and what I'm doing, I'm always writing. I'm always trying to be on the state writing and learning curve, and I've got to explain to a lot of you I've got a project that I'm working on on communications technology and politics and political power.

It's about 90, perhaps about 93% done, and hopefully it'll be out next year. As far as financial publishing, I don't have any great plans. I'm thinking of doing some e-publishing, just, you know, putting out Kindle books on my own. Maybe not even books, I mean, you know, somebody explained to me several weeks ago a book is a social contract.

It's becoming a social construct, and, you know, there's no reason why you can't sell 10,000 words for, you know, for $2 as easily as you could sell 100,000 words for $25. So I may wind up doing little trips and drabs of, you know, encapsulated subjects and doing it that way.

You find the ones you want, and you leave the ones you don't want. Is Mike Piper still here? Mike, are you still in the audience? Where are you? He had to leave. Oh, he had to leave. Too bad. It would be a lot better if I could say this without him being here and embarrassing him.

Mike is 27 years old, and he is the future of our organization. Him and others like him. There's some other posters on our Vogelheads board who are in their 20s, their mid-20s, and they are dynamo out there, gung-ho Vogelheads, who are helping to spread the word to their group.

And Mike is unusual. The first time I read something that Mike wrote, I thought he was in his mid-40s or 50s, even in his 60s, who had been retired, and he turns out to have been about 25 at the time. And doing what Bill is talking about, he's publishing small books, and he's financing his -- this is his living, selling his books.

But the way he's doing it, he's using the internet and the median of the young folks, if you will, to get the message out about the Vogelheads, not unlike what we're trying to do on the board, but just taking it to three or four or five or 25 different levels.

I was at the pleasure of being at a financial bloggers' conference, the very first one that they had a couple of weeks ago, and it was all these 20-somethings out here, and they're all networking and interconnected and doing all this thing, and Mike is in the middle of all that, spreading the Vogelhead message.

And so he's the future, and the young people are the future of the Vogelheads, and if he was here, I would have recognized him. And he's got the right idea with small books, and I think Bill has realized that, and I've realized that. And the projects that I might be working on in the future are just going to be -- I was going to have a 300-page book.

I'd just break it down into three or four 60- to 80-page e-books and sell them for what I'm going to sell them for. But in order to try to spread the Vogelhead message, we're doing -- Wiki is fantastic. I don't know if you had any chance to look at what we're doing out there with Wiki.

It's wonderful what they're doing, and now we're on Facebook, and now we've got people like Mike Piper out there spreading the word to the young community. I mean, this is the future of the Vogelheads. This is spreading the message, and e-technology, if you will, is one way of doing it, and I plan to do what I can.

So that's what I'm doing, and I just wanted to give credit to the young folks that are here today that are, say, under the age of 40, because you are the future of the Vogelheads. I'll second the endorsement of the Wiki site. Just before coming here, I sent a message to some of my colleagues at Morningstar.com saying that what you all have done there, I think, has evolved into the most useful, deep resource for personal finance on the web.

So I just think it's an extraordinary achievement. I'm sure it'll continue to grow and get even deeper and broader, but what you've done so far is absolutely tremendous. I'm honored to be here, honored to be up on this panel. As Mel's intro of me alluded to, I spent most of my career at Morningstar focusing on mutual funds and helping people select mutual funds, and the longer I did that, the longer I became convinced that we were just sort of toiling in the margins of people's financial lives.

So whether they selected the right large growth fund or whatever they did really paled in comparison to did they save enough, did they make semi-sane asset allocation decisions, did they not completely undermine their financial plan by selling everything at the wrong moment. So I'm really happy in my current role to be able to address a lot of these things, to tap resources like a lot of you and external resources and write about a whole lot of topics.

I write about four or five columns a week and I'm really busy, but tremendously enjoy what I'm doing. I have become more and more interested in the logistics of retirement planning, so have been writing an awful lot about that. Another topic that's of tremendous interest to me is the decline in cognitive functioning as people age and how they must prepare their financial plans for that possibility.

I know that many of us have experienced that in our own families. I'm undergoing that right now with my dad, so it's become front and center with me, and thankfully he has me to help him, but a lot of other elderly folks do not. So that has become a real cause of mine, helping people, even dedicated do-it-yourselfers who have been very effective over their lives, helping them prepare for that day that they may not be able to do so.

So I've been focusing a lot on that. It's a sensitive topic. I know that some users have gotten a little offended by things that I've written, but I mean well, and I think it's a really important and critically under-discussed topic. Could I just ask that we recognize once again all of the people who are in the infrastructure of the local heads, the wiki, and Alex, and the stand-up, and whoever else is here who are involved in the actual what goes on in the back.

I mean, I'll second that as well. Can you hear me? No. Thanks. Yeah, I'll second that as well. I mean, a well-running discussion board or a site is like a tropical garden that needs weeding about once every ten minutes, and if you don't weed it, it very quickly becomes uninhabitable, and the people on the discussion board who do that really deserve our gratitude.

Well, Rick and Christine both talked about the wiki, and I think that's probably one of the most under-utilized and unrecognized resources available, and it is a vast, vast knowledge base. So I've been using the bully pulpit of Forbes to do a series on the wiki to try to get more recognition for it, and that's one of the nice things.

I really don't like having a deadline, and I told Christine earlier that she's my idol, and I don't know how she does it, adding up column after column after column. Every time I log on to Morningstar, there's Christine with a new column, and Laura and I share a column that is a biweekly column, which means Laura writes one week, and then two weeks later, I have to write, which means I'm writing one column a month, and here's Christine batting out what seems like one a day, so I really don't know how you do it.

It's a lot of work. Writing a book is a lot of work, writing columns are a lot of work, especially when you're supposed to be retired and playing golf and things like that, but I felt that we were given a column at Forbes, and it gives us a choice to spread the word to a lot of people who aren't really getting the movement message, so even though it's a chore, I feel that it's worth the effort, and that's basically the thing that I love to hate, having a deadline, because I thought I packed that in years ago.

Yes, Alex. I just want to say something about the wiki, and it's what's, looking at how people are using the site, what's an interesting phenomenon is the regular posters, readers, tend not to use the wiki that much, however, in the way the internet works, we're getting more and more traffic from people who have never been to the site, and they do a Google search on something, and basically the more complex the query, or something like non-deductible IRA, is leading people to the wiki, so like anything on the internet, if the quality is there, the content is there, it eventually gets found, so there's getting more and more traffic on it, so it may not be seen as much on the forum part of it, and we're going to be doing something to figure out a way to better integrate the two, or at least make people more aware of it from there, the regular users, but people aren't, there is a lot of activity from people reading the stuff, it's just not as visible.

Well that's great, now we'll get back to the Q&A, a question from Alex, what about low-cost variable annuities, for someone like Vanguard or TIA, prep to fill out any income gaps in retirement? So, you're talking about a variable annuity instead of a, instead of a speed, right? I'll kick that off, I'm not sure what the role of a variable annuity in retirement is, that's a hard one, I think for certain investors in the saving phase, a low-cost variable annuity can be useful, and here are my criteria for using one, first of all, the person should be young, because the compounding advantages of an annuity are greater the longer you are, so the perfect candidate for an annuity is actually one who is 15 years old.

And we've stopped right there for a second, we want to make sure, he's talking about non-qualified annuities, not qualified annuities. Correct, correct, and so the second criteria is you don't have any space for sheltered assets anywhere else, so you don't have enough in your IRAs and in your 401s, okay, if you've got plenty of room in there you certainly don't need a variable annuity, the third thing is it has to be in an asset class which is inherently very tax inefficient, okay, and that's junk, and that's REITs, alright, so if you can meet those three criteria I think that owning a variable annuity is a reasonable thing to do, but very few people meet that criteria.

A low-cost variable annuity. Yeah, a low-cost one, of course low-cost is part of it, yeah. I would say almost always no, you're converting a tax-efficient long-term capital investment. No, but I'm saying in retirement, not -- Oh, in a retirement, so you want tax deferral within a tax -- No, it's people who just need an income stream that is greater than 3% or 4% and don't really care about leaving, you know, that's a -- Well, actually it could work to leave some money towards an heirs, if there's a low-cost variable annuity, you could guarantee yourself that 5% stream in retirement and still leave something for your heirs, but you're going to have costs that make, generally speaking, the average mutual fund look cheap.

Well, that's why I asked specifically about TIAA-CRAFT and Vanguard, I mean, I know there's a lot of professors, my parents are among them, who are living off of these sorts of things with, you know, withdrawal rates that they couldn't have if they were to follow, you know, 3% or 3.5% or something, you know.

Well, what are they investing in now? Well, like TIAA-CRAFT -- No, but I mean, what specifically? TIAA-TRADITIONAL and, you know, like, say, I don't know, there's maybe 70% TIAA-TRADITIONAL, 30% CRAFT-STOCK, you know. Yeah, but TIAA-CRAFT is kind of a different animal, I mean, they've structured their product inside an annuity, but it's not what I think of when I think of a variable annuity, and I use Vanguard variable annuities all the time, but as a 1035 to get into something ugly, into something, you know, much, much, much less ugly, but still not great.

Yeah, the TIAA-TRADITIONAL, by the way, until about eight months ago, was an amazing deal, because if you qualify for it, and it means that you had to have received some money at some point in your life from an educational or a public institution, which, you know, probably 90% of people would qualify for, and basically you had what amounted to a money market that yielded, and still does yield, 3%, and all you had to do was put it inside of an IRA, and money was perfectly liquid, in and out.

I contacted Vanguard, and my question to the Vanguard people last night was on the variable annuity side, because, and we're not going to talk politics or anything here, but if taxes on long-term capital gains go up to an ordinary income tax rate, and taxes on dividends from stock go up to an ordinary income tax rate, then all of a sudden, the Vanguard variable annuity becomes very attractive on a, for taxable accounts, and we've been talking with Vanguard for the last year and a half, and it looked like this could occur, could occur, not saying it will, but it could, about how we can structure using, how we can manage accounts at our company, using Vanguard variable annuities, because right now, there's no system at Vanguard to allow money managers to actually manage portfolios of variable annuities in a very efficient way, rather than calling up individually and talking with somebody on the phone and trying to manage 500 client portfolios by committing 500 individual phone calls.

I mean, it doesn't work. We are working on the system to allow investment advisors like us to be able to efficiently manage variable annuities, just like we can manage the Vanguard funds, and I think it's an important step, I think, if the tax laws change, that would make very low-cost variable annuity products particularly attractive in a lot of asset classes, where right now, they're not.

And one other thing that hasn't been tested on, but in a lot of states, variable annuities are sheltered from creditors, so there are some people, like, that are subject to lawsuits that might consider it doctors, and others who are subject to lawsuits. This is a question about small-cap and value and tilting.

Does anyone like to share their thoughts on either a yes or no on tilting? Yes, Al? Sure. Okay, there you go. Alan, do you use that in your portfolio? Oh, I was going to actually say something. I thought you were through. Oh, no, and I'm not saying do it.

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