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- Welcome to Radical Personal Finance, a show dedicated to providing you with the knowledge, skills, insight, and encouragement you need to live a rich and meaningful life now, while building a plan for financial freedom in 10 years or less. Today on the show, current events show, big news. Buckle your seat belts, get ready for a shocking announcement coming up in three, two, one.

I shaved my beard. More importantly, or put more accurately, I guess, I shaved my quarantine beard. And although perhaps you are going to wax nostalgic for the three inches of manly, utterly masculine, lumberjackish good looks hanging off of my face, my shaving my beard is vaguely symbolic of the change in my mindset with regard to the current COVID-19 pandemic.

And I thought that would be interesting to talk through. It's been a while since we've talked about the pandemic, where I think we are, where I think we're going. So let me just share with you a few of my opinions, and you can consider them for yourselves. But I think we are, on a global basis, I think we are changing course right now with the COVID pandemic.

I think that we are, it's not the beginning of the end in some way. There's still a lot of deaths ahead of us. There's still a lot of effects ahead of us, et cetera. But I think we're definitely entering the next phase, which leads to the end in some way of this pandemic.

I wanna share with you why I think that and what it might mean for the coming weeks, months, et cetera. There are three major reasons why I think we're entering the next phase. The first major reason is at this point in time, we have fairly good data on the effects of the coronavirus disease, of the virus itself.

And that data comes from around the world, from a variety of reputable sources. Because this coronavirus began in China, and because that was the source of most of the initial medical data, it was very hard to place confidence in that data. The Chinese government has a long reputation of concealing data, of flat out lying about the data, manipulating data, and they certainly did the same thing in this pandemic that they have done in previous pandemics.

And so any kind of data that the Chinese government released was viewed with suspicion, not as automatically wrong, but it was viewed with suspicion. And in the early days of the virus, there were, the internet was awash with conspiracy theories and videos and people falling on the streets, and it was just very, very difficult to get a good information.

And I think with good reason, most observers watched and very thoughtfully and suspiciously looked at the data and said, "This may be true, but we don't know yet." And in fact, much of it was manipulated and much of it was also just, it was too early, right? There wasn't enough data collected.

Then as the virus began to be seen around the world and registered, the data continued to be difficult to come by because there wasn't enough of it. But at this point in time, six months in, in the Western world, nine months in, on a global basis, at this point in time, we've got pretty good data about the coronavirus infection.

And thankfully, although the sickness is significant for many people, we know that a massive percentage of people who are infected with the COVID-19 virus are non-symptomatic. We also know that the case fatality rate and the infection fatality rates are quite low. The current best estimates of the infection fatality rate from prominent, leading, reputable medical sources is that the infection fatality rate is probably something between 0.3 and 0.5%, about 0.4%, something like that.

So fewer than a half a percent of the people who are infected with the virus will end up dying of the virus. Now that's on a broad basis, but when you account it for age and for physical condition, we know that it's very, the deaths are vastly skewed towards older people with multiple comorbidities.

So in essence, the virus deeply impacts and heavily impacts people who are old and who are sick, but people who are not old and or not sick, not unhealthy, have fewer impacts. And the dire concerns that many of us had for quite a while don't look to be having the, they don't look to be coming true, which is really, really a wonderful blessing.

In addition, the death rate seems to be continuing to fall. Now, why? It's unclear. Perhaps the virus is weakening. Perhaps it's already gone through the most vulnerable populations. We don't know, but it's anticipated that that infection fatality rate number will actually continue to decrease. So there's very good reason to be less concerned about the effects of the virus than we once were.

And I think this is something really worth noting and being very, very grateful for, because it could be a lot worse. It could have been a lot worse. Viral pandemics are very common. Every year, there's a viral flu pandemic. And so the word pandemic is not in and of itself something that only happens occasionally.

It happens every year. But a really bad viral pandemic is certainly uncommon. And so it's nice to know that this one, while significant, this one is not, it's not the end of the world scenario. It's not the thing you write a good dystopian novel about. The deaths, the total global deaths, when put into context of other maladies, of other causes of death, are overall quite low.

And so that is very, very encouraging. And I think that as that medical data is now seen and now understood, I think more and more people every week are basically saying, "I've got to get on with my life. "I'm not gonna sit back and be concerned about it." And that's certainly what has changed in my mind.

I was nervous at the beginning until more data came out about, I don't wanna go out and get sick, but I was nervous in the beginning until more data came out to see what is the actual strength of this virus, what actually happened. I had friends who got sick and they said, "Of course it was significant." But at this point in time, you can't go through your life worrying about a virus that has such a low fatality rate and that has so many people who experience it completely asymptomatically.

It's just a bad gamble to be worried about that. My heart goes out to people who have comorbidities, who are older, who are sick, et cetera. It's a much harder decision for them. But for those of us who are healthy, I can't sit around, I'm not gonna sit around and just sit in my house and look for the future and wish for some magical thing to change in the future.

Now, I would have made that decision about three months ago if I didn't have the luxury of working from home. It's a great luxury to be able to work from home. And so I've been able to maintain an isolated lifestyle without much difficulty. If I couldn't do that with my work situation, I would have come to that decision three months ago because three months ago, the data was increasingly pointing in that direction.

And there are things that are more important than your physical health at times where you simply have to provide for your family. You have to do what you need to do. And so I think that collectively, I see many, many people coming to that same conclusion and I see good, solid evidence as to why that's a justifiable conclusion.

Number two reason I think that we're coming to that, that conclusion would be there are major improvements in treatments for the COVID infection. As I sketched out six months ago, when you're looking at a pandemic, what you're looking for is you're looking for an off-ramp. And those off-ramps are a few different, there are a few off-ramps that you've got to watch for.

One off-ramp is this is not such a bad disease. And although I wouldn't say this is not a bad disease, I would say that increasingly it's less bad than feared. You know, these words that are subjective, it's hard to know what to say, but it's less bad than previously feared.

And so that off-ramp is, you can see that off-ramp has come, it is coming, it has come, it will come, that it's not as bad as we previously feared. Another major off-ramp to end the pandemic was improvement in therapeutic solutions. Does the medical staff, does the medical community have treatments available that are effective?

And increasingly the answer is yes, as the medical community gets more experienced with the sickness, as they get more experienced with treating it, then they become increasingly skilled at treating that particular illness. And so we see that, we see it's one of the reasons why we see a lowering infection fatality rate.

We see that the medical community is increasingly skilled with treating it. Now, there's also even just more and more interesting data. First, there's new technologies, there's plasma, blood plasma treatments, and innovative things, but even just drug treatments. I was fascinated to see, it's been such an interesting debate on the hydroxychloroquine debate, because the hydroxychloroquine debate has been crazy in terms of how it has all emerged in terms of a political controversy and people advocating that this treatment, that treatment, et cetera.

But I was interested, last week I was watching, I watch, there's a YouTube researcher named Dr. John Campbell that I enjoy getting his input on the medical details. He has a YouTube channel, just a guy who turned on a camera who was in the right place at the right time, long time nursing professor, was a nurse in the field for many years, and turned on his camera and started giving medical updates, which are of course extremely valuable.

And in his discussions, he recently did an analysis of the hydroxychloroquine debate and showed some new research, which basically shows significant efficacy for hydroxychloroquine if delivered in the right dosage. And the debate seems to be majorly influenced by two things. Number one is what goes with the hydroxychloroquine treatment the zinc or azithromycin, whether that accompanies it.

And then the more important thing, however, seems to be just simply going with low doses. And many of the big studies, the WHO study and whatnot, seem to just be doing this mega dosing of hydroxychloroquine far higher than the previous recommendations for the use of the drug. And yet that overdosing caused it to be completely ineffective.

And so when delivered in the proper lower doses, then the drug is actually quite effective, cutting the death rate by something like 30% for people with the disease. And that was one of the other debates, is it helpful in the early stages, is it helpful in the later stages?

This was debated and discussed, but the latest reputable research seems to show that yes, it's effective for people with the disease and has a significant impact on the death rate, which is very encouraging. And so things like that are a big, big deal because a drug like hydroxychloroquine, what was always so helpful and so potentially valuable about it is it's an open market drug, there's no patents on it.

It's very, very cheap. And so it can be produced and shared and help to cut the death rate massively around the world if it does continue to prove out to be an effective therapy for people with the disease. And so we see that that off-ramp is increasingly appearing very, very significantly.

Third off-ramp, of course, was vaccines. Is there development of vaccine? Of course, vaccines are being tried all around the world. The results on that are still early, but certainly there's a major, major push on all fronts to develop a vaccine. And it'll be interesting to watch and see, but I don't think it's necessary.

My personal opinion at this point, I don't think it's necessary to stop and wait for a vaccine. And so with these developments, we see these off-ramps coming where the worst case, this is not the worst case scenario. This is not the end of the world as we know it virus.

And these off-ramps are significantly, significantly brightening in terms of this is working and we're getting on top of it, which is just great news, great news. The final thing I think you see is you see that the economic inability to continue with the lockdowns. I have been very, very encouraged to see that the economic effects have been far less than I thought they were.

I think this is important to factor into our mindset for the future. If you were to go back 30 years and go and put this virus on the table the way that it is being experienced now, just 30 years, the economic impacts would have been so much harder. But our ability to communicate from the palm of our hand, our mobile devices, from anywhere in the world has allowed us to genuinely do a good job of keeping productive in many circumstances, even through the middle of this pandemic.

And so the economic impacts, while severe, are less severe than I feared. And so it certainly does not look like a worst case scenario. It's gonna take a while to work through it all, but it's really encouraging to see that. And so I'm filled with optimism, even just about the moderated economic effects.

And I see this general clamor that people are realizing, like, we've got to stay at work. We've got to go back to work. My bigger concern's just been, it's been shocking to see how many governments have locked things down medically, which has had dire effects on so many people, and yet there seems to be no recourse.

And so I think this is gonna lead to increasing periods of political instability in the coming years, people realize how vulnerable they are to authoritarian governments. And who knows, right? We'll be debating this for a long time as the data continues to be clarified, and we compare and say, well, the Australian government is locking people in prison, yet this government over here didn't.

What happened? And it's gonna be a debate for many, many years, and we won't know for many years how this pairs out. But in my personal perspective, I'm increasingly filled with optimism. So I shaved my beard, and basically, to the extent that I'm able, I'm getting back to normal life, to the extent that I am able.

Of course, many of us still live under mask laws and rules, and those things are important. The next big unknown is gonna be what happens as the Western Hemisphere goes into the wintertime. Generally, most people, I think, would expect increasing resurgence of the virus as cold weather comes into play.

That's certainly possible. I think there are many reasons for it. Maybe the cold weather, the virus becomes more resilient in cold weather, maybe. But there are other good reasons, just to think less ventilation is a big one. If people start to, in the wintertime, they shut their houses down, indoor gatherings start to become more prominent, people get tired of social distancing, more contact.

We can expect increasing rates of infection. We can certainly expect significantly increasing rates of infection as schools open up and as workplaces open up more and more. That's totally expected. But I think in general, probably see that death rate keep low, and we'll see. I'm not a medical expert.

I just try to watch and think it through. And so, on the whole, even though we'll see as we get into the fall weather in the Western Hemisphere, we'll see what happens, but I'm optimistic about the whole thing. So, what does that mean for you? I don't know, obviously.

I'm just sharing what it means for me, is that for me, I'm back able to plan. I'm trying to plan for the future and get things going and get back into a normal swing. I've got a lot of lessons that I've learned from this experience. I think more than anything, it's how much you value your social contact with people.

I think we see how important that has been for our lives, for our brains, just for us to function well. And the people I'm most concerned about are elderly people. I think this virus and the response has wrought a heavy toll that's going to take years to play out among elderly people who are isolated, filled with fear many times, and just isolated from social contact.

It's very, very, very difficult on them. But I think that on the whole, I expect things to get better from here. I do think the thing that is worth watching, I think there's gonna be political instability that's a fallout from this for a while, as there's a reckoning with who happened to be right and who happened to be wrong in the moment.

And so we'll see. But I don't expect that to be a big problem on a broad, globalized perspective. Certainly, as the bills come due of massive deficit spending in many governments and major declines in economic productivity, major declines in tax revenues, et cetera, that's gonna be an interesting and important thing for us to study and watch in the days to come.

But on the whole, my general feeling at this point is just a sense of optimism. I feel like we dodged a bullet. We dodged the worst case scenario. And I'm really, really happy about that. I think that's really, really encouraging. And we can be thankful for that. Living through this experience, when I was younger, I used to really want to go through a hurricane.

There's this boyish enthusiasm for something being crazy, and it's a bad event, and you really wanna go through a hurricane. And I remember the first hurricane I went through, and it was so exciting. The wind is blowing, the rain is lashing your house, everything is howling, you're seeing stuff get blown down the street, and it was so exciting.

For a boy who doesn't have property to worry about, who doesn't have any concerns about money, it's just exciting to go through a hurricane. But then, in the wake of the hurricane, you look around, and it's just days of misery. The electricity's out, you got no air conditioning, you're cleaning up branches and trees and trying to get your house back, and it's hot and it's sticky, and you can't sleep, and it's just misery.

And finally, like, I don't ever wanna go through a hurricane again. And I kinda feel like the same thing applies with the global pandemic. Now I'm at a point in my maturity where I don't wish for bad things to happen. But having thought a lot over the years about bad scenarios, you think about pandemics, and you think about what could happen in a bad pandemic, what has happened, what will probably will happen in the future at some point.

You think, well, maybe, well, wouldn't it be interesting to have that happen? And I remember in the early stages of the pandemic back in February, when I was really watching and really concerned, in March, and in April, I got more concerned. And there was this, almost this sense of, I hesitate to use the word 'cause it comes with such a bad connotation, but I don't know what other word would work.

But there's this sense of anticipation. There's this sense of, wow, maybe this is it, right? Maybe this is the big one. And you look at it, and I think, if there were a big one, this is what it would look like. And it's kind of this really weird mix of dread and anticipation, like, well, maybe this is the big one.

At least that's what I experienced. And so I prepared accordingly, and then I watched my experiences through it. Number one, I was certainly, it became very clear, very quickly, like, I really hope this isn't the big one. I don't want this to be the big one. I really don't wanna go through this right now.

I had a big year planned. It was gonna be awesome. I don't wanna go through this. But of course, we don't get to choose it. The second thing is I learned a lot about just the difficulty of decision-making. And I learned a lot about my own normalcy bias. I realized how strong my normalcy bias is, and how my issues, my personal issues, my personal, the things I struggle with, just inability to believe what I saw.

And I thought, man, if I'm facing this, and I've thought about this, I've studied this, and I've considered what this happens, what would happen, what will happen, what could happen, et cetera, and I'm just wrestling constantly with normalcy bias, how tough it must be for other people who haven't thought about this in advance as I did.

And yet still, you're looking at data, and you're saying, this is what the data says, and yet I can hardly believe that this is what could happen. What a powerful thing our normalcy bias really is. What a powerful, powerful effect that really is. And so that was fascinating. The other thing that I just really thought was interesting was how excruciatingly slow this really is, how excruciatingly slow a pandemic really is.

I never imagined how slow an economic catastrophe really can end up being. And you read, you watch a movie, a dystopian movie, and there's a nuclear explosion, or there's something big, and everything happens fast, and everything collapses fast for the sake of a good story. And authors do this as well.

Of course, authors have more license, but if they stretch it out over chapters, and chapters, and chapters, it's too slow, and the book falls apart. But real life, certainly slow is how it has happened, and how it is happening. I mean, this is gonna be years in its effect, and here we are nine months into it, still talking about how, well, I'm not sure what the future's gonna hold.

That is nine long months. And so just the simple boredom with the whole thing, and the slowness of it all, the dreariness of it all has been really remarkable to live through. And I've learned a lot of lessons from that. I've learned a lot of lessons from that. And so to wrap up, there are many reasons to continue to be cautious.

I've been fascinated to see how this is playing out. And I don't know if I've gotten some things totally wrong, but at the moment it appears like I've gotten some things significantly wrong. For example, I'm watching very closely the real estate markets, and I expected, about now and over the coming months, I still expect this, but I'm wondering if I'm wrong.

I expected there to be major, major decreases in the real estate markets. It's just a normal influence, a normal effect of a recession, that people lose their jobs, they get laid off, they start to go behind on their rent, they start to get evicted, they start to go behind on their mortgages, they start to get foreclosed on, and real estate prices generally decline.

Well, what is happening is in many markets is the exact opposite of that. Right now in many, many real estate markets, demand is through the roof. Many rural markets, you put a property on the market and boom, people are snapping it up. South Florida, where I'm from, the market has never been hotter.

And so how much of that is New Yorkers moving out? It has a big, obviously a major influence in commercial real estate in big cities, massive plummeting there. Residential real estate to some degree affected, but very localized, need to look at the local market. And so what a fascinating thing.

I didn't expect that. Well, I guess I could have said it was possible, but I guess I didn't expect it to be as strong as it is. And so watching this play out is really, really interesting. The stock market has been absolutely incredible to watch. Massive dumping off, then massive fast rebounding.

What an amazing thing to see and to watch and to analyze and to consider, really, really remarkable. A lot of lessons that are available for us right now. So on the whole, I'm studying, I'm learning lessons. We're doing well. And I am in my mindset, like I said, I shaved my beard and I'm a mindset.

I'm back to trying to actually plan for the future. So that's exciting. Feels exciting to get off of just pause and be able to get back to planning for the future. Travel is opening up, countries are opening up. I never thought I would miss an airplane and an airport as much as I have over the last months, but I'm excited about where we may go.

I still think it's gonna take a while, but I'm excited about the prospect of getting back to normal life. And I would guess you are too. So those are Joshua's thoughts. Hope that you enjoy, and I'll be back with you soon. - Don't just dream about paradise. Live it with Fiji Airways.

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