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My name is Joshua Sheets. Today, I want to talk with you about security. I want to give you a warning and hope to do this in the appropriate way. Right now, global supply chains are in massive disarray. They are experiencing massive stress. Perhaps you have noticed that many things that you would like to go and get right now are limited in quantity or unavailable.

This is not universally true for any one market or in any one country. Rather, what you're seeing are shortages in pockets. And for that reason, I think there's some chance that perhaps you're not noticing this. And so thus, I want to warn you. But if you go looking for it, the warnings of the shortages that people are experiencing right now are abundant.

They are everywhere. And they are across all kinds of industries, industries that you wouldn't ever expect. Some of these are large and quite visible. For example, we know that there are thousands and thousands and thousands of mostly finished automobiles sitting in parking lots unfinished because manufacturers can't get computer chips.

Well, that's one little piece of data. And of course, that has ongoing ramifications. The used vehicle market in the United States is totally whacked out because of this. People are needing cars. And so used vehicle prices are up quite significantly across the United States. But it's also, you can find reports from many people for shortages on products as mundane as wooden pallets.

There's stuff everywhere of shortages. If you go looking for the information, I've browsed, I don't know, chemicals are in short supply in some industries. It's just, there are widespread shortages right now. There are lots of stories that you can find of ships stacked up outside of ports all around the United States.

None of these things are healthy trends. They are quite concerning and worrying trends. What's more worrying is these don't seem to be short-term problems that are easily fixable. It doesn't seem like there's anything magic about the date October 4, where all of a sudden by October 4, everything is going to be fixed.

Rather, some of these problems are predicted to be continuing in different industries for perhaps even years before things can potentially be sorted out. So I wanna bring you this as a warning, that if there is some physical item that you know that you will need or want in the future, I would recommend to you that you purchase it if you can find it and if it is available.

If there is a physical item that you know that you will need or want, I'd recommend that you purchase it if you can find it available. It's hard to see an argument right now as to why in the short-ish term, short to medium term, we can expect prices on many things to decline.

Right now, it seems far more probable that prices on most physical items will increase. They will probably increase due to increased demand. Consumers adjusting the pricing in order to moderate that demand as they should. Don't call it price gouging on here at Radical Personal Finance. You know that we are firmly in favor of merchants being able to price their goods as the market makes appropriate.

But if these stresses and if these pressures continue, there's a very good chance that prices will adjust. There's also good reason to think that prices may continue to adjust with future inflation. I have not been crying out large warnings about inflation because I still watch the median CPI and I wait for time to pass before paying attention to any one short-term number.

But there do seem to be increasing markers of inflation. And so if we do wind up in an environment with increasing inflation, then in that kind of environment, of course, currency or cash is less valuable. And one way to protect cash is to own physical items. Especially durable physical items do not suffer from inflation.

So if you're not paying attention to this, you should. What's the most actionable thing? Well, things like Christmas presents. If there's some particular thing that you have been planning to buy for Christmas, then this is a good time to go ahead and order it. If there's some particular thing that you've been on your list of stocking up, this is a good time to order it.

I think that's the appropriate tone to take in this current situation. I'm not saying that catastrophe is imminent. I'm saying that there are tremendous pressures on supply chains all around the world. And those pressures are likely to have a continuing effect on the goods and products that you might wish to own in the future.

So think carefully about that. And if there is something on your list that's a physical item that you want or need, or that you know you're going to want or need in the future, this would be a good time to move that purchase date forward so that there's a higher probability that by the time you need it or want it, that you will have it.

You'll have the thing that you need or want. One of the things that is so fascinating to me to watch about the situation as it has developed is that the current, it's not wrong to call it a crisis. Certainly a crisis, it's a strong word, and I try to be very cautious in using that.

But in some industries, it really is a crisis. So in some places, in some industries, crisis, and some places, in some industries, pressures. But in the current environment, what's interesting to see is this is a very long, this has been, and probably will continue to be, a very long and slowly unfolding event.

Meaning this is happening. This is genuinely a difficult period, but it's not so acute. It's not a one-day collapse. Everything is unfolding slowly, and the crisis continues to unfold slowly. There are many reasons to be optimistic. It seems that we understand more and more what's gonna happen with the pandemic.

We understand more and more kind of the direction that things are going, even if my previous optimism many months ago was misplaced due to the effects of the Delta variant. But this crisis is continuing to unfold with regard to the supply chains and to the pressures that the supply chains are facing.

So don't be lulled to sleep, and don't be lulled to inaction due to watching, due to seeing how slowly this is unfolding. The shortages are real. I'm optimistic that the markets will be able to respond and to react. I have enjoyed watching this current crisis unfold because I've learned some valuable lessons.

On the one hand, as I have warned in the past, the modern form of inventory management, known as just-in-time inventory management, is something that has tremendous dangers because most manufacturers, most stores don't have many reserves. And so there's not a lot of slack in the system. Most of the time, in today's world, a perfectly run store, a perfectly run factory has goods coming in the back of the store at the same exact instant that they're going out the front.

And the modern understanding of a perfect inventory management system means that when you are ringing up your item in Walmart at the cash register and getting ready to walk out the store, the truck is unloading that item in the back of the store, and there's no slack. It's immediately being replaced on the shelf.

And that's phenomenal for the efficiency of the system. It is such a better system for keeping costs down, for keeping things running smoothly. It's phenomenal. And I have been amazed at how good modern inventory management systems really are. And I think that we should acknowledge this because while there are dangers of the just-in-time inventory system, we've seen so many crises come and go, and we've seen how retailers and manufacturers have been able to adapt to those crises better than ever before.

You look at how when storms come through an area, you look at how quickly modern retailers are able to predict what's going to happen and send floods of goods in that direction. And so on a regional basis, I think we can see that the just-in-time inventory system is much more robust than many people have previously predicted.

What's happening is that slack has been taken out of the system at virtually all levels. And now you're finding that it's much more difficult for many manufacturers, many distributors to deal with the big difficulties. You can have a powerhouse of a retail brand like HEB who can predict and watch a hurricane coming in and can immediately divert all of its supply management system to deal with the needs that are gonna come in for that hurricane.

But it's much more difficult for that same retailer to be able to affect the pace at which the container ships that are bringing its goods from China are unloaded at the port of Los Angeles. It's much more difficult for them to have any real control over that. And that's what we're seeing, is we're seeing major pressures across all levels of the global distribution system, and it's just bringing constant difficulties, constant shortages.

And these shortages are affecting many businesses down line. So I hope I've given you my warning, tried to say it clearly that if there's something that you need or want, and that you know you're going to need or want in the short or medium term future, I would encourage you, go ahead and order it.

Go ahead and buy it. Go through and do your Christmas shopping now so that if there's some particular thing that you really wanna have for Christmas, that you can get it ordered and hopefully it'll be there. There's really no downside if there's something that you're going to need or want.

There's really no downside to simply ordering it, unless you just don't have any money, in which case, obviously, that's something that you don't want to do. I'm not saying to buy something that you don't need or want. But if there's something that you've been planning to do, don't hold back.

Look at your business carefully and take a look at your own supply chain. If you haven't been paying attention to your own supply chains for your businesses, then make sure that you're doing your best to protect yourself against any shortages and protect your family against not having the things that your family needs.

I don't think too much at this point in time about even, I don't, I don't wish to engage in fear-mongering. And so I'm trying to intentionally keep a cautious but level tone in this. I just want to encourage you, if you're not prepared, if there's things in your life that if you didn't have it, that would be a major inconvenience or perhaps a major safety risk, get it.

Because it's better that you have it and not need it than that you need it and not have it. And unfortunately, these issues are quite large and it seems that there's a very, there are many good reasons to think that over the coming months, possibly even a year or two, that may take a significant amount of time for supply chains to return to what we consider to be normal, more smoothly functioning, fewer shortages, et cetera.

So hopefully it happens faster. Hopefully there's no crisis at all. Hopefully the shortages simply disappear very quickly. I think that the good thing is we can appreciate that while the shortages are inconvenient, I don't hear any catastrophe stories, right? There's nobody who right now can't get any food, who needs food?

There's still plenty of food available. But be prepared. This is the time to be prepared. - Sweet Hop is an online marketplace curating the best in premium seating at stadiums, arenas and amphitheaters nationwide. With Sweet Hop's 100% ticket guarantee, no hidden fees and the personal high level service you expect with a premium purchase, you can relax, knowing you'll receive the luxury experience you deserve.

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