We're really excited to have our next speaker here. Nate Silver is the editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight. And he came to our poker game recently. Oh, Nate came to our game. Come on out, Nate. Ran the game over. See you, Rob. Good morning. Who was the big loser that night? I think, wait, who was the big loser?

Because Nate was the big winner, right? Well, he was the big winner. I was basically trying to kind of break even. I think I donated a little bit to Nate Silver's new Model S Plaid. Model Y, Model S Plaid. I think he got the Model S Plaid coming to the game.

This was the largest poker win you've had in your life. Largest cash game win, yeah. By a factor of five? Two. Two, okay. Well, we're happy to donate. You're getting, by the way, your speaker fee, I just canceled it. Okay. But ladies and gentlemen, Nate Silver on The Mind of a Gambler.

Cool. I'm really excited to talk to y'all today. I'm working on a book about gambling, risk, and rationality. I prefer the term critical thinking to rationality. It's partly involved talking to people about global societal risks, so talking to people about the risk of nuclear war, which is not very cheery conversations, by the way.

But also people who take risk for a living or at the very least manage risk and have real skin in the game. They're not just some actuary getting a salary. They're assessing risk and making big decisions financially mostly based on that assessment. So I've started out talking to poker players and sports bettors.

I'm a former poker player myself. I still play recreationally a lot. I'm currently I think number 301 in the global poker rankings. Not that I look that up every morning. But mostly it's the examples of talking to other fantastic poker players and sports bettors about their process. And I'm also talking now more to VCs, to founders, to hedge fund managers, for example.

There are a lot of similarities. There's a certain type of person. That's what I'm talking about today. Personality traits, modes of thinking. It even affects maybe their political views a little bit. And you see a lot of things in common. So I gave you some of this context already.

This is a work in progress. I mean, the book is kind of halfway, 0% written, about 50% research. So things may change. I'm evolving and learning and correcting things. But it's fun to write a book. It's fun to have great conversations with the besties and other people and really kind of experience this firsthand.

So I'm going to start with some things that I think are relatively straightforward and obvious and then get into things that are maybe less so toward the end. But one really obvious one is that successful gamblers think probabilistically. It's not just a matter of understanding probability, but being comfortable with uncertainty, being willing to take bets on an uncertain basis.

That's kind of table stakes for even getting into any field involving risk. In poker, at least, you probably also need a fair amount of mathematical ability. There are now these things called solvers in poker. They come up with a game theory optimal strategy for every situation. It's a very complex situation.

It's way too hard to memorize. You have to kind of develop a mathematical intuition behind it. But even players with rare exception-- Phil Hellmuth might be the one exception, actually, right? But even players who are known as being field players or exploitive players, people who rely on tells and psychology and table talk.

I talked to Daniel Negreanu, for example, one of the probably five best poker players of all time. And he told me that about four years ago, he realized that these solver kids, as he calls them, the math whizzes were better than him, at least at certain forms of poker.

And he totally remade his game to look at computer solutions, to be more studious and mathematical. And it's improved his results quite a bit. In the VC field, I don't know if you're necessarily doing as much modeling as I might in an election model, for example. But at the very least, people understand the intuition.

And the intuition is-- you need both, but I think the intuition is more important than the application. So I'm going to talk about that a little bit. Number two, this one ought to be really obvious, but it needs to be said. Successful gamblers are highly competitive. Things that you hear from people over and over again is, I want to kind of prove people wrong.

I want to outsmart the competition. I want to show who's best. It's almost more this motivation than financial motivation, I think. It's partly a matter of you can't settle for being average as a gambler. The average poker player loses money to the house, so does the average sports bettor.

So therefore, you have to deviate from average in some ways. But kind of one conclusion I've come to talking to people for this book is that human beings are a competitive species, right? To get people to get along in society is pretty hard. One good thing about capitalism is that you have some managed type of competition.

Democracy is kind of a type of competition. And that's probably a better way to kind of challenge these conflicting urges we have than things that are too centrally planned. But certainly people in this room, people I talk to are on the high end of the competitive scale. Successful poker players and sports bettors have to care a lot about small edges.

It's the nature of placing bets in a field where you lose money on average. So a very good sports bettor might win 55 or so percent of his or her bets. You have to win 52 and a half percent to make up for the house cut for the rake or the vig as different names.

That means you can't afford to make 1% errors, right? You really have to squeeze every last drop of expected value or EV out of any situation that you're in. This makes people very, very, very detail-oriented. Poker players tend to be very studious about their craft. They really kind of love poker.

You can't just get the big things right in poker. You have to get the small things right, too. It's too competitive a field right now. This might not be as true, by the way, of VC. The average investment makes money. It may not make an above-market return, but it'll make money, which is not true for the average poker hand that you play.

By the way, casinos, too, if you talk to casino executives, you might think you walk into a casino and everything that you do is maximized to make the maximum amount of revenue possible. Not really, right? They're pretty good at the big stuff. They protect their downside risk a lot.

But they're not maximized as much as they should. They're not maximized as much as you would think because when you have a license to make money, you don't have to get the small stuff right. But in poker, where only 10% of players probably make money in the long run, you have to be very, very detail-oriented.

Number four, you see here a Paul Graham thread about Elon, actually. Successful gamblers are contrarian, at least to some degree. And again, I'm kind of repeating myself a little bit, but there's no edge if everyone does the same thing in the same way. You have to have some angle that you think makes you better than what the market thinks.

And the market's pretty good, so it's a hard thing to manage. I think risk-takers tend to view themselves as outsiders, whether they are or not is probably an open question. What they think of themselves as thinking differently from the rest of the world, potentially. This can also make them potentially a little bit annoying outside of investing and gambling context, where if you're always the person who says, "Well, actually, that can get pushed back in social settings," for example, or on top of that.

But you can't kind of settle for having the average view because the average view doesn't do better than the market. There is a fine line between being ahead of the curve and a permanent contrarian. In sports betting, there's a line that's constantly mispriced. Then I can just bet that I don't want that market to correct itself.

I want to keep exploiting that error in pricing, right? In VC, I mean, you might want to find a founder or a sector or a company that's undervalued by the market. But eventually you want that sector to grow. You want to attract more talent. You want to attract future fundraising rounds.

So you kind of are more being ahead of the curve by half a year to a year. I think in some ways it's analogous to real estate. We are trying to kind of anticipate where the market will be in the future. And that's a subtly different skill than being maybe contrarian per se, but related at least.

Number five, and again, this might be a little bit redundant, but successful gamblers tend to be more competitive. They're more competitive in terms of their ability to take shots. And this is very intuitive in VC where you have a field where you might only have a unicorn or decacorn, you know, 1% of the time or 10% of the time.

Of course, you have a whole portfolio. It may not be that risky in the aggregate, but you have to be willing to make decisions under pressure and be somewhat fearless as a result, right? Timing is important. You want to be first to market. In poker, you have a finite amount of time you can spend on a hand in practice.

Sometimes people take these risks in a calculated way, right? I talked to Sam Beckman-Fried for the book, for example, and he's like, "Yeah, I knew this would have like only a 50% chance of succeeding, but the payoff was so high, I would take it." Some people just kind of more intuitively just kind of want to put skin in the game, want to take risks, get some excitement or pleasure from it.

Again, we're talking about the very extreme tails here too, right? The people who are super uber successful maybe are almost taking on more risk than they maybe should. You can instead likely have a very happy life. You can be happy and complacent life as an investment banker or something, but people who are true entrepreneurs think at scale and think very, very big.

I should say one challenge of writing the book is that talking only to successful people, you risk survivorship bias, right? So kind of which people fell along by the wayside. If you know unsuccessful investors or gamblers, then send them my way. I need to talk to some of them as well.

Number six, successful gamblers, especially in poker, work well with incomplete information. One thing that differentiates kind of people in academia, and academia is very useful for basic research and for advancing science and things like that, right? But you don't get months and months and years and years to develop a hypothesis when there's actual money on the line.

By that time, the people who were faster will already have moved. So the skill is kind of knowing what information was available at the time you made the decision. I think there is a limit to how useful like an after-sales decision is. So I think that's kind of what the answer to the question is.

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