So live from an undisclosed location with the sultry filter on Very sultry filter on Having a great hair day. Yeah, that is a good hair day for you. Great hair day my pal and your Favorite CEO and Twitterer, Mr. Elon Musk. How you doing pal? *applause* Appreciate you coming to the event and coming zooming in.
Yeah, what's new in your world? *laughter* Well, let's see, I guess right now I'm sort of debating the number of bots on Twitter With Paragh on Twitter and The currently I'd like the what I'm being told is that the there's just no way to know the number of bots It's like as unknowable as the human soul basically *laughter* *laughter* So *laughter* You have no idea what level of witchcraft and alchemy is needed to determine these buzz bot percentage *laughter* Have you determined I said like why not try calling people but I haven't got a response, you know, like if you try calling people or something, you know *laughter* Like maybe try that Can they answer?
It's not a bot? No, no, no, I don't know But I think like that would be one of the things to do to say like Have you tried calling them as opposed to trying to read the tea leaves here? That's like impossible, you know *laughter* Obviously you can have an account that looks exactly like a human account or is being operated where one person is operating a thousand accounts or something But that person can only buy one toaster.
They're not gonna buy a thousand toasters So you care about like number of unique real people that are on the system It's extremely fundamental and anyone who uses Twitter is well aware that the comment threads are full of spam scam and Just a lot of you know fake accounts.
So It seems beyond Beyond reasonable for Twitter to claim that the number of *laughter* Essentially the number of real said another way the number of real unique humans *laughter* That you see making comments on a daily basis on Twitter is above 95% That is what they're claiming. Does anyone have that experience?
*laughter* *laughter* Exactly I mean *laughter* *laughter* *laughter* Really? *laughter* There's a bridge I'd like to sell you, you know *laughter* *laughter* And also you can buy the Brooklyn Bridge *laughter* What do you think it is? What do you think it is? If it's not 5% what is it? *laughter* I think it's a number that is probably at least *laughter* 4 or 5 times that number I'd say at if you did sort of the lowest estimate would be probably 20% *laughter* And this is a bunch of quite smart outside firms have done analysis of Twitter and looked at the sort of daily users and their conclusion is also about 20% but that's a lower bound it's not an upper bound *laughter* If you look at say *laughter* The most liked tweets on Twitter *laughter* So I have the honor of *laughter* Having the most liked tweet of any living human *laughter* *laughter* This is *laughter* Thank you everyone for liking my tweet *laughter* But that tweet is less than 5 million likes It's like 4.7 or something like that And that was the Where I tweeted about That next time buying Coca-Cola To put the cocaine back in *laughter* It's definitely It's clearly something that the public really wants *laughter* You know Coca-Cola corporation Should really think about going back to their roots *laughter* Coca-Cola I mean this I guess is the reason Why our grandparents could Sort of walk 20 miles in the snow *laughter* Because they had Coca-Cola with cocaine *laughter* *laughter* Anyway that's That's literally the most popular tweet *laughter* Of any living human And but Twitter says The daily The sort of monetizable daily active users is 117 million So why would it be That the most popular tweet Ever basically is Only you know 2 2.5% of the entire User base This seems A very very low number *laughter* And The most popular tweets generally are clustered around that Sort of 4 million Like level so it's sort of Basically 2% or less than 2% Of the Daily active users And technically monetizable daily active users Is how Twitter refers to it so it just seems How is this possible Surely there's something that maybe You know 10% Of people would like not merely 2% Well actually You know if you think about it Elon There's a corollary on YouTube What do what's the total user base of YouTube And what have the most popular videos Gotten there And I think there's a billion or two Billion people using YouTube And those the most popular videos have Tens of billions of views That might be instructive Exactly that ratio makes a lot more sense So Something doesn't add up here And my concern Is not that is it like You know is it 5 or 7 or 8% but is it Potentially 80% Or 90% But you know Is it I mean I certainly know there's some real people on Twitter But what's Is it an order of magnitude Is it 50% instead of 5 And that's obviously an incredibly material number Especially since Twitter Relies primarily on brand advertising As opposed to specific Click through advertising Where you make a purchase If you make a purchase It doesn't really matter that much But for brand advertising which is really just awareness advertising It matters if real humans are seeing that or not Yeah And so I guess stepping back for a second People are curious why You want to buy Twitter Why is this so important to you And then I guess what are the chances You think the deal gets done at this point So a two-parter Why is it so important to you I mean some of this I've articulated before But I think there's a need for A public town square Digital town square That where people can debate Issues of all kinds Including the most substantive issues And in order for For that to be the case You have to have something that is as broadly inclusive as possible That has as much of the The people on the platform as possible Where it's It feels Balanced from a political standpoint It's not biased one way or the other And where The system is transparent This is why I think it's important to put the algorithm on On GitHub and actually Allow the public to see it and critique it And improve it And if there are any manual changes Sort of shadow banning as it's called Or Increasing or decreasing the prominence Of a tweet that's done manually That that should be noted So you know what has happened And it's not just You know Where it is right now Where you don't know what the heck is going on Why is one tweet doing well Why is another tweet not Is it the algorithm?
Did someone manually intervene? Or is it the algorithm that's banned With no recourse apparently And You know the reality is That Twitter at this point You know has A very far left bias And I would classify myself as a moderate Neither Republican nor Democrat And in fact I have voted overwhelmingly for Democrats Historically overwhelmingly Like I'm not sure I might never have voted for Republican Just to be clear Right Now this election I will *laughter* *laughter* Hold on hold on hold on David you okay?
Keep going keep going he's fine We're going to resuscitate him We're going to resuscitate David Sachs I mean let me ask you a personal question The point I'm trying to make is that this is not some sort of attempt to You know it's not some right wing takeover As say people on the left may fear But rather a moderate wing takeover And an attempt to Ensure that people of Of all you know Political beliefs feel welcome On a digital town square And they can express Their beliefs without fear of being Banned or shadow banned And that we obviously Need to get rid of the bots And scams and trolls and people that are Operating huge bot armies And attempt to Unduly influence the Public opinion so This is what I think it's very important that we have that Like the Some of the smartest people In history have Thought about it and said like Free speech is important For a healthy democracy it is important And free speech only matters Like say when does free speech matter most It's when someone When it's someone you don't like Saying something you don't like That's when it actually matters So You know Obviously and it's pretty annoying When someone you don't like says something you don't like That's bad But it's actually a good sign of That you have Free speech So I mean I get trashed by the media All the time it's fine I don't care Do it twice as much I couldn't care less But it's indicative of the fact that even though You know I have like a lot of resources I do not actually have the ability To stop the media from trashed it And that's actually a good thing Yeah I have to ask With regard to this current administration I know how hard you work On the car company And then Biden You know you've been a life long Democrat you've donated to Obama And to everybody probably never voted Republican And yet And the same is true for Joe Rogan Joe Rogan is you know A Bernie Sanders supporter And that the Democratic party Has been openly hostile to Joe Rogan And Biden Can't even say the word Tesla Or invite you to the White House When they do an EV summit I'm curious just on a very personal basis What does it feel like to have that experience Where the party you supported Won't even say the name of your company Or invite you there They should be celebrating the work you're doing Yeah I mean it definitely feels like This is not right The issue here is that There's just The Democratic party is Overly controlled by the unions And by the trial lawyers Particularly the class action lawyers And generally if you'll see something That is not in the interest of the people On the Democrats side It's going to come Because of the unions Which is just another form of monopoly And the trial lawyers That's where actions will be happening From the Democrats side They're not in the interest of the people And then to be fair On the Republican side If you say Where there's something not ideal happening It's because of corporate evil And religious zealotry That's generally Where the bad things will be coming from On the Republican side That are not representative of the people So in the case of Biden He is simply too much Captured by the unions Which was not the case with Obama So in the case of Obama You could have He was quite reasonable And I think he took more of a view That obviously You take the concerns of the unions into account But there are bigger issues at stake And unfortunately Biden does not do that Elon I have a Tesla question I read today It's incredible There was a Bloomberg article That said the following So the setup is this It said since you went public Tesla is up 22,000% 11/4 of sequential profitability So hitting on all cylinders And you're talking about analysts That's a car joke That's a combust We're stepping on the gas pedal Firing on all cylinders People charged But analysts When they put out their projections Okay It's one of the most enormous bans For any company in America The price targets for Tesla Despite all of this success Some have it at 200 Some have it at 1600 You tweeted A couple of months ago Tesla is not a company It's like six companies inside of a company Like you've had to build Yeah maybe more Can you just explain to people All these companies inside this super company Just so folks have a sense of what had to be done To get here Okay I mean this question requires thought And I'll probably be leaving out quite a few things But if you look at say what What does a typical car company do What they do is they They assemble vehicles And they send them to dealers And they manage the supply chain They might make the engine Or typically will make the engine But most of the parts Are made by suppliers And a lot of the actual technology Development is done by suppliers And most of the vehicle software Is done by suppliers So the actual amount of real work Done by car companies What you think of sort of like a GM or Ford Is not actually that much And so they don't do They don't do sales They don't do service So in the case of Tesla for example We do We do our own sales and service We don't have dealerships Then Tesla also has By far the biggest network Of superchargers Sort of the electric equivalent of gas stations So we built an entire global supercharger network Which is still the most advanced And by far the best Way to charge your car when traveling In the distance or if you live in a city And don't have the ability To charge your car Because of street parking or an apartment So the whole supercharger network We developed the supercharger network We deployed it I think we have I don't know 15,000 superchargers globally You can travel anywhere in America Right now with the Tesla supercharger network Then In terms of vertical integration We We make the battery pack The power electronics The drive unit We We actually make We're more integrated in the parts We actually make so much of the car internally We're vertically integrated Not necessarily because we think There's some religious reason to be vertically integrated But because the pace at which we needed to move Was just much faster than the supply chain could move And to the degree that you inherit The legacy supply chain You inherit the legacy constraints Including their speed, cost And technology And then Tesla is as much a software company As it is a hardware company So the software that runs in Tesla Operates the car, operates the screen Does the charging All of that stuff is developed by Tesla And So we have sort of a car, a Tesla OS in the car When you I could go on for a long time And then very importantly Tesla Has built An autopilot That can control the AI team from scratch That is the best real-world AI team on earth And if anyone else has got a better one I'd like to see it demonstrated in a car The The full self-driving beta at this point Can Very often take you with zero interventions Across the bay area From San Jose to Marin So Through complex traffic It's really quite sophisticated And I invite anyone to Join the beta or look at the videos of those who are in the beta There are probably 100,000 people in the beta So it's not tiny And we'll be expanding that to I don't know, probably a million people Or a million, I don't know, on that order By the end of the year So it's You had this slide We also built a chip team Because there wasn't hardware That we could run the friggin AI on We couldn't just Fill the trunk with a whole bunch of GPUs And You know, because We had a trunk full of GPUs That would have been very expensive And take a massive amount of power and cooling Just to be able to do what the Tesla designed Full self-driving computer can do So, and we started a chip team from scratch Designed it, it was the best in the world And still is the best in the world Several years later And we also then developed We were designing a Dojo Supercomputer to be able to process the All the video That's coming in from billions of miles of data Because, just sort of like the way that It's very difficult to compete with Google Because they have so much data And they have all these people doing searches all the time And humanity is training it The same is true of Tesla You really need billions of miles Ultimately tens of billions of miles of training data Combined with a sort of A vast training computer And then optimize Inference hardware in the car And state of the art AI And training specialized software Across the board to be able to achieve A full self-driving solution When he opened Tesla Gigafactory Remember this six or seven years ago?
I'll just tell the audience a story quickly He puts a slide up there And he says, guys we're not actually building A factory, we're building a machine That makes machines and he puts the layout Of the factory and it looks like a chip And it was basically like How you would actually lay out a microchip If you were, you know, you were like a layout engineer It was the craziest thing I'd ever seen That was when I first got it You know, you walk in and you see what's happening And you have an insurance company now you're doing insurance for Tesla Owners and an Uber competitor And eventually a robo taxi Uber competitor RIP Yeah, I mean Insurance is not quite significant Now are you okay?
I'm okay The car insurance thing is a bigger deal It may seem A lot of people are paying You know, 30, 40% as much as their Lease payment for the car In car insurance So the car insurance industry is incredibly Inefficient because they're just Personally you've got like so many Sort of middle entities you've got From the insurance agent all the way to The final sort of reinsurer there's like A half dozen companies each taking a cut And then the It's all very statistical So that there's Even if you're a very good driver like you could Be like, you know, 20 years old And a great driver but they It's all statistical so you can't get You either can't get insurance or it's extremely Expensive So but Tesla allows for real time Insurance based on how you actually drive it So if you drive the car You can actually if you drive the car In a safer way you actually Have lower insurance So ours is Insurance is based on how you actually drive Not how you know Historically people that You know fit your whatever demographic Have drive and then you can close the loop Around your Insurance rate by simply driving better and looking at Your score and Lowering your insurance in real time and people Do it actually promotes safer driving I actually have had this experience Because in my household two people Drive my car and one of them has A 93 score and the other one Does not they have like a 60 score And You may have met this other person but I've been trying to work with her on The aggressive turns and stops In advance Of our insurance bill Which we're hoping Will go down at some point You didn't oh the one question Is this Twitter deal going to get closed You think what are the chances here Well I mean it really depends On a lot of factors here I'm still waiting for Some sort of logical Explanation for The number of sort of fake Or spam accounts on Twitter And Twitter is refusing to Tell us so You know This just seems like a strange thing Wait sorry Are they refusing to tell you or you don't think they really know I mean there's a good chance They may just have no idea They claim that they do know Yeah And they claim that they've got this complex methodology That only they can understand Um Laughter But the guy who landed Two rockets simultaneously Can't understand You stir this cauldron and then you throw the Nothin' at 'em Laughter Pogsworth And then suddenly it comes to you in a dream I don't know But there should be some You know Objective way to Because this is a material Public statement It's a You know it's a material adverse Misstatement You know if they in fact Have been Vesiferously claiming less than 5% Of fake or spam accounts But in fact it is 4 or 5 times that Number or perhaps 10 times that number This is a big deal It's not this It seems like if you said okay I'm gonna I agree to buy your house You say the house has less than 5% termites That's an acceptable number But if it turns out it is 90% termites That's Not okay you know It's not the same house Laughter This house is made mostly of termites If termites leave Literally your house will disappear Because it's mostly made of termites So you know that would obviously Just not be appropriate So in making the twitter offer I was obviously reliant upon the truth And accuracy of their public filings And if those filings are not accurate It's simply not It's not You can't pay the same price For something that is much worse than they claimed And you know they say Elon life's a negotiation So at a different price It might be a totally viable deal correct I mean I mean I mean It's not out of the question But I really would You know the more questions I ask The more my concerns Grow So You know at the end of the day Acquiring it has to be fixable And fixable With a reasonable time frame And without revenues collapsing along the way And all that sort of stuff And so You know I really need to see How these things are being calculated And it can't be some deep mystery That is like more complex than the human soul Or something like that It's got to be You know I think we can apply the scientific method to this And try to figure out what's really going on And Twitter's revenue is primarily dependent I think 70% or some of that order On brand advertising As opposed to specific purchase advertising And I think that's the thing This is a big deal Because brand advertising is not There's not a purchase that results from that So it's basically How much mind share If you're a big company How often do they hear your name As opposed to something where you can directly measure the outcome So that That means that they're somewhat going on faith And if that faith Is undermined or reduced Because of the reality of the situation Coming to the fore Then Tesla's revenue Starts with a T Twitter's revenue Will be Significantly impaired And that's a major problem Elon did you have a chance to ask these questions During your negotiation The Like I said I was relying upon Their public filings So to the degree that And this is normal for a public company If you make a formal filing That That is what Investors are relying upon Whether they are making an acquisition offer Or simply buying some shares So this The accuracy of these filings is important Whether you're buying one share Or the whole company And so if these filings are inaccurate Or if they're Sort of potentially blatant It's a big deal Elon do you have a sense of Why this has been such a Persistent problem for Twitter Do they not have the technical capabilities To solve the bot problem Or is it more of like just They've under prioritized the issue Or been unwilling to because potentially There are implications for Ad revenue I don't know it's sort of speculative at this point So the The worst interpretation Would be that they don't want to look too closely At the thing because they might not like the answer That would be the worst interpretation The I'm not sure what the best interpretation is But the least bad interpretation would be Maybe they thought it was this way But the way they were doing it was wrong And they didn't realize they were mistaken And simply weren't paying enough attention It does seem as though it should be a lot easier To get rid of the bots and spam and trolls Than like this is not some We're not trying to split the atom here You know We're not trying to get to the moon We're just trying to Limit the amount of obviously scammy accounts If it's If it's like A bitcoin giveaway You know Probably it's a spammer You know like Maybe you know Wait you're not giving away 100 bitcoin?
I just sent you 10 e If you send me 2 bitcoin I'll send you one back Right? What if I send you 20? Actually I thought one of the interesting things That came up in your product roadmap Or I guess this was released And people were like Oh I'm going to use this And people covered it Was the possibility of Twitter becoming Kind of a super app with Payments included Perhaps even Doge or something This seems to me Based on your work with David A PayPal A pretty brilliant idea What's the vision there in terms of If you were able to buy it Perhaps at the right price What would it look like If I could add Jason to Elon Musk Sure well For those that have used WeChat I think that's WeChat's actually a good model If you're in China it's basically You kind of live on WeChat It does everything It's sort of like Twitter plus PayPal Plus a whole bunch of other things And all roll into one with actually a great interface And it's really an excellent app And we don't have anything like that Outside of China So I think Such an app would be really Useful And just like the utility Of sort of a Spam free Thing where you can make comments You can post videos You know I think it's important for Content creators to have a revenue share Now this does not need To be done on Twitter It could be done from something that's created from scratch So it could be something new So really but I think this thing Needs to exist whether it is Converting Twitter to Be the sort of like Kind of all encompassing app That like I said everything from Digital town square where important ideas are debated You know maximally trusted and inclusive And at a point where you sort of Have a high trust situation then Payments whether it's Crypto or fiat Can make a lot of sense You just want something That's incredibly useful and that people love using So But it's It's either convert Twitter to that Or start something new those are the two But it does need to happen somehow Well it's interesting you bring that up Because the price of Twitter Is pretty high And you've built a couple of companies And some engineers like to come work for you And you've now gone through the intellectual Exercise of studying all this If you're looking at the two choices now Fixing Twitter given all these problems And maybe just starting Your own version which one are you leaning towards Because I have watched you build a Couple of companies and the products have turned out Pretty good so is it easier For someone like you to just start from scratch I mean It's certainly the My default inclination is to start Things from scratch I mean I'm not really I don't buy things There's still this sort of You know Um Like SpaceX would start up from scratch You know In the case of Tesla You know There's like five people There's still this guy Everhard who's the worst guy I've ever worked with Who tries to claim like sole credit essentially For creating Tesla And if he's so damn great why don't he just go You know create another car company when he was fired But anyway So Well I mean that's a pretty good story I mean Yeah I 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