♪ Sax is old, do do do do do do ♪ ♪ Sax is old, do do do do do do ♪ ♪ Sax is old, do do do do do do ♪ ♪ Sax is old ♪ - He's almost dead. ♪ J Cal's fat, do do do do do do ♪ ♪ J Cal's fat, do do do do do do ♪ ♪ J Cal's not fat anymore ♪ - J Cal's not fat.

♪ He's getting the cannons back, do do do ♪ ♪ Freedberg's not human, do do do do do ♪ ♪ He's a robot, do do do do do do ♪ ♪ He's a robot, do do do do do do ♪ ♪ He's a robot ♪ - Don't quit your day job, Chamath.

That's all I can say. - Bro, you don't remember Baby Shark? I mean, how many, no, he doesn't know his kids' first names or birthdays. How does he know Baby Shark? ♪ I'm going all in ♪ ♪ Let your winners ride ♪ - Rain Man, David Sack. ♪ I'm going all in ♪ ♪ And it's said ♪ ♪ We open sourced it to the fans ♪ ♪ And they've just gone crazy with it ♪ - Love you, man.

- He's queen of kinwa. ♪ I'm going all in ♪ - Hey everybody, welcome to episode 55 of the All In Podcast. With us again this week, the dictator himself, Chamath Palihapitiya, the queen of kinwa, David Friedberg, and coming back from Portugal and the Solana Conference, riding his-- - Where heroin and prostitution are legal.

David Sacks. - Well, we were gonna double click on that, but you jumped the gun here on the docket. So David, how was the heroin in Portugal? - Great. - Great, okay. How you having, folks? - I was fully drinking the Kool-Aid at the Solana Conference. It wasn't heroin, it was Kool-Aid.

- It was literally Kool-Aid. How many people were at the Solana Conference in Portugal? Why is it in Portugal? What happens at a Solana Crypto Conference? - I think there were thousands of people there, and it was, I mean, easily. And I mean, it was kind of a madhouse, and people were trying to get in last minute, nobody could get in, 'cause the conference was like totally sold out.

It was... There were a lot of crypto developers, a lot of people with projects. And why Portugal? I think because there's a lot of conferences happening in Portugal right now, because they are easier on the COVID restrictions than a lot of other countries. So you can actually get in there and host a conference.

- What was it, indoors with no masks? For masks optional? - I can't remember if like masks were required or not. I did see people wearing masks indoors, so. - Were you required to be vaccinated? Did they do tests on the way in? - I think I did show a vaccine pass at one point when I checked in.

- I just did my booster. - I'm gonna do my booster shortly. - It kind of, it was a little, I would say the same kind of shitty feeling as the second one. - Hmm. - Which kind though? - I just got, I mean, I had the first two were Pfizer, so I took Pfizer.

She was, the nurse actually gave me a choice. She's like, "You can do whatever you want, Pfizer, Moderna, or J&J." I just, I didn't know any better. I texted my doctor. So I just took Pfizer. Although the interesting thing is, Moderna is the only one that's dose regulated for the third dose.

So there's a, they actually give you less specifically, but Pfizer is the same for all three. - I think we talked about this on the pod. There's one theory which, they told you get whatever one you can get, was the instructions, because it's more important to just get one than which one you get.

But they said there's a Swiss cheese theory, which is if you took two slices of Swiss cheese from two different bricks of it, the holes would not be the same, and therefore you overlap them. So whichever deficiencies each one had, maybe the other one doesn't. - So I should have gotten Moderna, is what you're saying.

- That would be, if you believe in the Swiss cheese theory, I don't know, Friedberg or a science guy, you believe in this? - I should ask Aaron Rodgers what he thinks. - I mean, he just straight up lied about being vaccinated, huh? - I think so. And I think the NFL's not doing anything about it.

- Yeah. - That's not cool. Why would you lie about it? I mean, he would have still been allowed to play, so there was no reason to lie about it. I'm not totally up on that story. The rumor is that Kyrie is gonna be playing basketball soon. Because New York-- - 'Cause Eric Adams is gonna lift the vaccine restrictions.

- Yes. You will not need to show a vaccine card or wear a mask. - Bro, I don't think it's gonna-- - Or maybe he'll just get a PCR test every day. - I don't think it's gonna matter because the Warriors are shooting the lights out and Klay hasn't even come back yet, and so-- - Oof.

That Gary Payton, the second kid is-- - Did you see Gary Payton Jr., these clips? Oh my God. - The second, I mean, he's like living above the rim-- - Oh my gosh, animal. - And just destroying it, Wiseman's-- - Animal, animal. - Is Wiseman back? And then Wiggins is playing great basketball.

I mean, the Warriors are gonna win this year. I don't know. - Steph is otherworldly right now. - Yeah, I think Steph's got something to prove, even though he doesn't, but he's playing like he's got something to prove. Okay, so do we wanna just cover the elephant in the room?

The last episode, I think we should just get out of the way 'cause it relates to Solana. There was, we took something out of the last podcast so people understand we have an agreement between the four of us. If there's something that somebody doesn't want on the pod after we record it, we'll take it out 'cause we don't want anybody, I mean, I think the philosophy, we haven't said this out loud, is we don't want anybody to say something they regret that could cause damage to other people or to themselves.

So if they wanna take something out that they said, that's fine with all of us. And basically each of us has veto right on something. So last week, two people took their veto right on something and we took something out. You wanna explain? - Yeah. - What you're thinking on that, Sax, and why we're reversing it.

- Yeah, okay, so a few weeks ago on the pod, there was an oblique reference between me and Chamath regarding Solana. And so some internet theorists claimed that we were trying to engineer a pump and dump in Solana, which if you actually listen to what we said, it certainly is not a pump.

Let me explain what it was. So Kraft is the beneficiary because we invest, we're the first investors in multi-competition, we put in something like 40% of the money for their special opportunity fund. They were one of the first investors in Solana. So we are the beneficiary of about a billion dollars of Solana.

So thank you, multi-coin. At some point, well, so they have started doing distributions, but at the time I texted Chamath, they hadn't really started doing distributions. I didn't know how deep and liquid the market for Solana was. I just asked Chamath, like I'd heard, Chamath made a lot of money in the market, but I didn't know how deep and liquid the market for Solana was.

Chamath may have said something that he was long Solana and wanted to accumulate. So I sent him a text saying, "Hey, are you interested? I thought maybe we could do an OTC transaction at some point when we get our Solana." He basically, we had a brief exchange about that.

And then he mentioned it on the pod. That was the extent of it. What I didn't know at the time, but learned subsequently is that the market for Solana is very deep, about three and a half billion. Notional is traded every day. So there's no need, even if we wanted to fully get out of our Solana position, which by the way, we don't even have, multi-coin still has most of it.

It's not necessary to do an OTC transaction. We could just sell it. Explain what OTC transaction is. It just means over the counter. It just means that instead of going to like an exchange, you would deal with like a trading desk or it could just be direct, like for me to Chamath.

So that was basically the exchange. Chamath and I talked about it for maybe two minutes and then it came up on the pod for 20 seconds. So then some internet theorist basically clipped it and try to, accuse us of organizing a pump and dump. Well, obviously if you're talking about selling something, it's not a pump.

It's also not a dump either. So anyway, the reason why we said cut it out last week is because we didn't want to give oxygen to this stupid, like conspiracy theory that somebody had invented on the internet with like no basis whatsoever, because you could spend all day trying to like shoot this stuff down.

But then at the Solana conference, enough told me, enough people told me that this was becoming a meme that I thought was worth addressing. And what, and look, you have to understand with crypto is that for every cryptocurrency like Solana, there are haters because they're invested in. It's very tribal.

Or Cardano or whatever. Everybody's talking up their books. Yeah, exactly. There are pump and dumps and there are armies of anonymous Twitter accounts that will coordinate attacks and or memes, etc. Right. So they're trying to spread the rumor that like VCs are big holders in Solana and are going to dump it.

The reality is that Multicoin has a large position, but they have LPs. They are slowly distributing their positions to LPs. In the forms of the tokens. They're not selling them and giving you cash. They're giving you the tokens. You get to decide what you do. Yes. And by the way, that's what we'd like to do as well.

We're currently working through those mechanics because it's actually complicated for a VC firm to distribute in kind through tokens. But if you had to give them to your LPs subsequently. That's what I would like to do. Exactly. So people are doing that with Coinbase. So Coinbase is providing that as a service now, from my understanding.

Right. So we have to work through with our LPs, but that's what we're going to try to do is distribute it in kind so everyone can make their own decision. I have a couple of things to say. So I've only been a buyer. I've never, I haven't sold a single Solana token.

And so we are net buyers and we're buying a bunch of stuff. But I hate acknowledging that. And this is why my tone was more noncommittal. When we did the pod is that I really don't like this culture that's emerged via Twitter mostly, where you all of a sudden have to be this maximalist that basically falls on their sword and never sells in order to be legitimate.

And I think that that's a really dangerous place to be. So, you know, look, if I take a much, much- Why is that dangerous? Well, if I take a much, much bigger step back, let me put Solana in the context of crypto and let me put crypto in the context of crypto.

And I think that's a really dangerous place to be. So, you know, look, if I take a much, much- I think that's a really dangerous place to be. So, you know, look, if I take a much, much bigger step back, let me put Solana in the context of crypto and let me put Solana in the context of crypto.

And where we are today at the end of the week, after Q3 earnings in November of 2021, we have the stock market at absolute all-time highs. Ripping. We have crypto at absolute all-time highs. Ripping. We have the art markets. I don't know if you guys saw Phillips and Christie's and Sotheby's this past week at absolute all-time highs.

Sold another people for 25 million. We have inflation at a 30-year high. We have 10-year break-evens at a 25-year high. We have, you know, one point some odd trillion dollars that we just approved last week and we're still horse trading on another three, you know, $1.8 trillion of stimulus that we're going to put in.

And so when you, and then you have, and I think the most important thing, which is the two most important founders of our generation, the two smartest people who have really consistently won, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, have collectively sold more than 11 billion dollars. of their holdings this year alone.

And if you can't take all of that and decide for yourself, what's right for you and your family, you're doing yourself a disservice. I think it's important for me to never sort of like, you know, be forced to tell folks whether I'm buying or selling, although I'm willing to do it in moments where I think it's important.

But I think it's really important to understand the context. And so I think like these folks that like think derisively about individuals who are managing risk, I think it's really nice to be able to say, you know, I'm going to buy this stock. I'm going to buy this stock.

I'm going to buy this stock. I'm going to buy this stock. I'm going to buy this stock. And I think it's, it creates a lot of missed opportunity for them as well. If the smartest people in the world are now selling their core holdings that they told you they would never sell, and you are not reconsidering your position on things, you're either much smarter than them, or you're being really, really reckless.

All right, there you have it. All right. We usually people also know inside baseball, we have a docket of stories that we talk about on our group chat that make up the docket for the show. But I'll bring stuff up. And I didn't bring that up in some way to cause trouble or anything.

I thought you guys would want to clear the air about it. And I understand your position of, hey, you don't want to give these things oxygen or whatever. But I think I didn't even know that we needed to clear the air until you know, I went to the conference and enough people mentioned it.

So but what's so funny is half the people on Twitter spend all their time in crypto land saying things like, never going to make it have fun staying poor. They're extremely Jason, as you said, tribal. I'm not sure that they're doing first principles analysis of these things. They're toxic.

They've got exceptionally lucky. Yeah. Some of them are exceptionally good. But many people broadly speaking, have gotten exceptionally lucky. And I think a little bit of it is getting to their head where they become, you know, very virulent against people that they think, you know, whose perspectives may actually be negatively affecting their position without actually understanding what David said, that they're not going to be able to do anything about it.

Yeah, I mean, I think that's a really good point. I mean, I'd like to give my opinion on Solana. But the thing or just crypto in general, the thing that's like hard about it is that it's hard to talk about the benefits of say, the Solana blockchain without being seen as a pumper of soul or a dumper of ether, whatever, because all these things are so intrinsically connected.

I mean, I learned a lot of really bullish things about Solana, you know, at this conference. I mean, I think the biggest thing is, I mean, there's basically a battle for the hearts and minds of developers going on right now between Solana and Ethereum. That's why Solana has raced up to, you know, over 200.

I don't know what, like 7000% increase or something incredible like that. The reason is because Solana as a blockchain gives confirmations back in something like 400 milliseconds, whereas Ethereum takes, you know, minutes, and you know, transaction that might cost 10s of dollars, 10, 20, 30, $50 of gas on Ethereum.

It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money.

It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money. It's a lot of money. Yeah, exactly. It's also, you know, a lot of developers feel like the tools, the developer tools that they've created are easier than building on solidity.

The thing that Solana gives up, the trade off that it makes is decentralization. There's basically that transactions are processed by 20 validators, and they're a top 20 based on holdings of soul. So it's kind of like this proof of stake model. So anyway, there's some trade offs there. I can tell you that, you know, it's a view of, you know, our friends at multi coin.

And you know, I heard a lot of this views at the conference, although obviously, you have taken with a grain of salt, because these are the biggest believers, but their view is that Solana over the next year will flip Ethereum based on developer activity that there's real, to your point, we spend a lot of time, actually, before we do anything is that's the only thing we've been looking at, you know, and we're kind of like, I'm going to do this.

And then we're like, I'm going to do that. I'm going to do that. And then we're like, I'm going to do that. I'm going to do that. And then we're like, I'm going to do that. syndica fractal, a lot of the stuff that we've done DSO is purely driven by developer interest.

When we see developers in the open source ecosystem building things on top of this stuff, making stuff that's composable and usable by other people and building infrastructure. You know, we don't really second guess that because they are spending their the most important currency, which is not monetary capital, but human capital.

Yeah, their time, their skill time and their skill and reputation. Another project. Yeah. And so when enough developers so I've always thought you just follow the developers. And as more and more projects get started, you just have to unemotionally support that I think the writing is on the wall, which is Bitcoin is gold, Ethereum looks like it's trending to be silver.

And Solana could be the first but there will be others that come after it, of real developer ecosystems that can be built on top of it. The other the other thing that I would offer up to people for them to think about is before you blindly go and write a book, you're going to have to think about what you're going to do.

You're going to have to think about what you're going to do. You're going to have to think about what you're going to do. I think that's a really important thing. And I think that's really important. I think it's really important to think about what you're going to do. And so, one way in which I try to think about these things is in the following way, you see these projects get started all the time.

And I would view each of these projects as a mini economy, and really try to think what is the economic value of what's happening under the hood. So simple example, you know, helium is an interesting project that's trying to build a completely decentralized, you know, 5g infrastructure, right? render is a really interesting project that's trying to build a completely decentralized, you know, graphical processing infrastructure, right GPUs, essentially.

In both of those things, you can quantifiably economically measure what the value is that people get right in the case of render, you're basically displacing an AWS instance. And so that has a price and a value. And so you know, for render to be valuable, there's an economic value that it replaces.

If you're joining a hotspot that has an economic value where you had necessarily have to pay, you know, to get internet connectivity, if you all of a sudden are on the helium network, that displaces a measurable economic quantum. Understanding that is probably and taking the absolute value of that is the best way of really understanding which projects have potential.

So if you take those two ideas and marry them together, where is their developer interest? And where is their measurable economic activity at the intersection of those I think are the really compelling projects that can win. Well, the thing that complicates all of this is that the developers are not just picking based on which language or technology, or stack they think has the most potential.

They also have acquired economic stakes in it. So a developer who might be objective and say, hey, this new platform is better than Ethereum, might be sitting on millions of dollars in Ethereum. And they're like, I want to keep my bet going here. And I'm going to keep talking my book, possibly, but I but I do think that developers in general will choose the platform that's easiest and cheapest and fastest for them to develop on, which would mean the list on coin market cap of market cap ones that has been static for a decade of crypto almost, you know, we're largely the top 10 doesn't change that much.

It's XRP, it's stellar, Ethereum, Bitcoin, tether, that could be up for grabs, that whole thing could change now that people are actually building projects, and the projects are getting competitive with each other. And that's that flippening we're talking about, correct sex? Yeah, I think that what's tricky here, again, is I never want to give anyone investment advice.

I mean, that's just not my job. And if there's anyone out there listening to the show, because they're trying to get like tips or tricks, whatever for investment, like I'm not really comfortable telling people what to do. Sure. So you know, everyone just has to understand that I did, I do feel like what I saw at this conference over the past week in terms of developer enthusiasm activity was very bullish, actually, it was a lot like I went to the Ethereum conference, I think it was back in 2017, several years ago, and it felt a little bit like that.

Although I would say that this time, it felt less academic. Like several years ago, it felt more like white papers. Now it actually feels like real projects and businesses that people are trying to create. Still infrastructure and less applications or more applications? Well, Chamath mentioned a couple of them.

So there's Helium, which is creating a decentralized network for Wi Fi. There's Render, which is creating a decentralized network for GPU. There's one called Hivemapper, I met the founder. It's a decentralized network for people to map the world, you can think of, you know, the concept of a miner that Bitcoin invented, think of them more as like a resource.

So, you know, we call them miners, but they're the validators of transactions. And we're trying to incentivize them through block rewards, basically through small bits of Bitcoin that get released, to provide these valuable computing resources to the network. And so people are figuring out now, how to create massively decentralized networks where you have, you know, 1000s or millions of resource providers provide a little bit of something to the network for everyone's benefit in exchange, they get some coin.

That's like a really interesting model that couldn't exist before crypto. And so yeah, I mean, I think it's very interesting. But you know, in order for that to work, you have to have, like very unique, fast, efficient, scalable blockchains. And the feeling as I mean, I'll give credit here to to Tushar, who's one of the GPs at Multicoin.

His view is that this was the iPhone moment for blockchain that that what Solana has built because it's massively scalable, and also very cheap. I mean, again, you can run a lot of transactions for pennies. Now, all of that is obviously very bullish for Solana. The thing I wrestle with is, and Chamath kind of alluded to this is I think everything's kind of in a bubble right now because of monetary and fiscal policy.

And so you know, I guess I, you could say that I'm long Solana versus ETH. But I do kind of worry that the whole world right now is very bubbly. And so as a GP, like, what do you do about that? I can tell you right now, like this second, we are sitting on Solana that we have not sold.

So you know, I am long in that sense. However, sometime over the next whatever number of years, we will distribute out our position of Solana to LPs. And then the LPs will make their decisions. And then they will make their decisions. Some LPs might specialize in crypto and want to keep it.

Other ones might not want to hold assets and need that money to fund their endowment to give scholarships to students, or whatever your LPs particularly do. Well, yeah, I mean, and so I guess, to the issue of, hey, we're not giving investment advice here. We are all capital allocators and startup creators.

So we're talking about our day to day lives here. Nobody should interpret this as investment advice. And especially not in a world now. I don't know if you guys saw what happened with Rivian this week. I don't know how we don't talk about a company with essentially no public sales.

They've sold 148 cars to their employees is worth $120 billion. Any free bird? Did you see this IPO? Any thoughts on it? Seems like a high level, do you have investment advice for the audience that you'd like to give? Tell me what Rivian does. Wait, can you play that video that you found that you shared with everyone?

You have that video? You know? Okay, well, I we do have it. I can we queue it up. Did you see this yet? So is this guy? No, I haven't. Oh, that Yeah, well, but just so I don't want to beat this point to death. But I just think it's so important for the audience that what they should be getting out of the show, if they're fans is maybe like advice on how to think critical thinking and how we think about investments.

Not principles. Tips. Exactly. So look, if you want to invest in crypto, first of all, like go understand like what all these different projects or blockchains do and figure out what is the purpose of the token in that system? What are the token economics? Yeah, does it even make sense?

Or is it just a scam? Then if it's a if it's something like a blockchain, go research how many projects are have developers on them and how much code is being checked in, and maybe open a wallet and buy some NFTs and buy some ETH and transfer it and learn just how to set up your internet connection.

Right, right. This was 1995. Right, exactly. And then on top of all that, you got to consider macro forces because I mean, and I think, you know, my friends at multi coin would fully concede this, that, you know, it could be the case that if there's a crypto bust over the next year, and this thing, you know, crypto has gone through boom and bust cycles for many, many years.

That is the standard. It's the standard. So you could have a situation in which, for example, Solana flips ETH and yet still goes down in value, because there's an overall bust cycle. So you know, you have to consider the macro forces. macroeconomic factors as well. So there's a lot of things to consider here.

And then you also have to consider your own risk tolerance. And you know, what is appropriate for your portfolio? And it may be different than us. When do you need your money? Are you a 25 year old? Everything is at all time highs, and the two smartest men in the world are selling.

Not just not just them, by the way. There are other guys that are heavily on the other side waiting for this whole thing to go. Like Druckenmiller has been very vocal about this. And he's, he's been the best macro trader in the last 30 years. So his position is what exactly?

That we're printing too much money, and we're in a lot of trouble. So you know, look, I mean, generally, there is, I think a good point of view being shared here, which is, you know, understanding how to think about what you're investing in and what your, your expectations are, versus relying on someone's advice or opinion on what to do.

If you have to rely on someone else's advice or opinion on what to do, you're gonna eventually lose money. You should not be. In that investment. You should not be in the market, because guess what, anyone that's giving you advice or opinions is going to make money if you do what they tell you to do, if you do what they tell you to do.

End of story. So at some point, they're gonna all make money and you're gonna end up losing money. And it's a it's, you know, it's, it's, it's a better game to play, to learn how to kind of be thoughtful about where's your money going? What are you investing in?

And it takes a lot of time and a lot of money. I've been sitting here silently, as you guys have been talking deeply about Solana and Ethereum and Bitcoin and, and the crypto markets because I realized so much of, you know, what's needed to be successful in entering this market is a depth of understanding a depth of knowledge, my time is highly limited, I have spent no time understanding crypto markets, because it's so deep, and it's so fluid, it's changing every day, it's changing every week.

So if I can't get smart enough to feel confident about the opinions and decisions that I would be making as an investor, I decide not to invest and I stay out. And so I'm not an active crypto investor, you're a specialist, and you're on the razor's edge on synthetic biology and so many other whatever it is, there are other areas where it's better for me to spend my time and my energy.

And I've chosen to do that versus being drawn into what feels like a very exciting, kind of, you know, turbulent time. There are other areas that I kind of spend my time on. And I just kind of try to recognize that maybe I don't know what I'm doing if I were to try and get involved here.

And so I'd rather stay out. And I think that's counsel for for anyone, you know, if you're going to make an investment, it's important to feel confident about the knowledge and the depth needed to kind of be different. I'll build on your point, like when I when I started doing my specs, I started to write these one pagers.

And those one pages were artifacts for me to hold myself accountable for how I saw something in a moment in time, and then to be able to see whether it was tracking to that, and then also to share it to other people a starting point, as David said, a journey where they should then if they're curious, go and do their own work.

It turned out not enough people were doing the work. So then I had to start adding disclaimers to these things saying, Hey, guys, I'm not telling you to buy this, please be abundantly clear. These next facts that I will eventually launch, you're going to see an entire like in red block letters, like please don't buy this.

Right? Because to your point, it doesn't matter what you say people want a lazy, easy way out. And so I just want to reiterate what all of you guys said none of us are dispensing advice, we are not telling you to do anything. Please do your own work. And please come to your conclusion.

It is your responsibility. And if you're not sure go and look at your children in the face or your significant other in the face, you're responsible to them. And so do your own work. I'll say one more point on where I sit as an investor. I choose to only participate in investing in what I call productive assets.

That is you put some money into something and whatever that thing is, is generating money in some way or is trying to generate value through a set of activities, like a business, or owning an apartment building where you're making rent, you know, anything that or you know, a group of people that are trying to have some breakthrough or some discovery.

Those are productive assets. There's a lot of what's going on now. That is what I would call speculative assets, which is the only way you make money is if someone else pays more in the future versus what you're paying. And there isn't an underlying productive asset to what you're putting money into.

You're describing every ICO or shitcoin. Every ICO, every NFT and the art market, right? These are examples of unproductive assets. They're speculative assets in the sense that you're speculating that at some point, the price of them are going to go up and someone Somebody wants that NFT more than you.

Someone down the road will pay more for that asset than what you paid. But that underlying asset, that capital that you just put in, didn't go in to build something. There's no revenue generation, there's no IP. It went into someone else's pocket that sold that asset to you. And you're eventually going to try and sell it to someone else.

And so, there's a real attraction here. Because what we just talked about is really hard to do. Having fundamental analysis and understanding of businesses and a fundamental understanding of what's working and what's not and when to shift and oh my gosh, are things different or are they not? To do that is really hard.

So people end up relying on opinions of others, or they end up running into speculative markets. And the speculative markets are easy to understand. Someone just paid more for X than the other person did. Therefore, there's a trend line, it's going up. It's like playing roulette. And black keeps coming up and you're like, okay, it's going to be black again.

It has to be black. There were seven, correct? There were seven blacks. And so, I think that that's a really important takeaway for folks that might be new as investors. We're all susceptible. We're all susceptible to this. I was just looking at my own performance coming into the end of this year.

And I did a lot of SPACs this year, but I did these pipes, which are these third-party deals. Private investment in public entities. Exactly. Other people's deals that they were bringing to the market where they said, Chamath, do you want to be a part of it? And I did.

And part of it was I was looking at these things and, you know, Freeberg doing my work. But in the end, it turned out I didn't do nearly as much as I probably should have because I ended up sitting on top of other people's work versus the original or underwriting that I would do if it was my own deal itself.

Right? Anyways, the net of it all is like, you know, that was very inefficient capital deployment. And as I look at it now, it's like, you know, I'm down. Well, I'm technically up 19%, but that's really because of one deal. If I take that one deal out, which was a total outlier, I'm down 17% on about $200 million of investment.

When you were a fast follower, not the originator, it wasn't your idea. This is critically important. There are many different ways to make money, but you have to specialize and you have to have first principles and your knowledge. I didn't. I trusted other people. I did the same thing that I that I'm saying to other people not to do do not just copy other people, you have to do your own principle work.

And even when you do your own principle work, it may not be enough. And you have to be willing to basically see the forest from the trees and walk away. And so all these pipes, I'm in the midst of sort of cleaning up and selling down. And they've been a just a kind of a disaster for me.

You know, I hold on, I want to build on this for a second, because I think it's critically important what you said as well, Friedberg, you have to be comfortable with the investment you're making. I look at these companies and I look at the underlying customer, the product, you know, and what kind of revenue it's going to generate.

And people thought I was dunking on Rivian yesterday. And I said, Listen, you know, when Tesla went public, people forget their valuation was 1.5 billion 1.7. So 1.7 billion, when they went public. Now, they already had 1000s of roadsters, and they had already had the 93 93 million of revenue in year one.

So this was dramatically different than what Rivian had Rivian is being valued at, you know, whatever that is. 120 billion, I think yesterday, Rivian has 17 billion cash, somebody asked me at the poker game last night, what I value Rivian at, I said, 17 plus 317 million in cash plus 3 billion, double roughly what Tesla's was the market's hotter right now, whatever.

But I put them at 20 billion. And people were giving a hard time about I said, I think that's actually the realistic valuation for this company. And we are in a very dangerous moment in time right now where I think people are whether it's meme stocks, or crypto, or NF T's, suspending disbelief, in some cases, SPACs, because they're not all created equal.

And certainly in private companies, we're seeing this, where people are giving people an amount of credit, which makes no logical sense, and is getting further and further disconnected in from reality. So as an investor, you have a choice, either you take you have your fundamentals, which I'm not going to change my fundamentals, I'm going to focus on the fundamentals that got me where I am.

And I'm not going to be involved in $100 billion market cap company that hasn't launched a product yet, let alone $120 billion, or $100 billion, I'll stay focused on startups. But what you're saying is also important, because you're highlighting how you value that company, you individually said, I think that company's worth some multiple of how many cars have been sold in the past, Elon sold, you know, 1000s of cars, he was worth 1.7 billion, these guys have sold, and other people are coming in and looking at this company and saying they've built facilities, they've built assembly lines, and they've got pre orders and bookings for lots and lots of cars down in the future.

And clearly, they've gone in and you know, some people have gone in and seen these plants and seen these cars actually working. So you know, it's really important to take note that your point of view is one point of view in a very diverse market with many points of view.

And everyone's going to come into this market. And that's why unless you individually as an investor, have a strong point of view and can show that you can apply your unique insights to consistently beat the market making decisions, investment decisions like that you're eventually going to lose because those other points of view will be a bigger view of the truth and you'll lose money.

And that's why I said that and that's by the way, that's why picking stocks is ultimately a loser's game unless you have some unique ability and insight for most people historically and in an upmarket everyone, everyone looks like a genius. Right, you need to have an edge and the public markets are hard to say that there's some there's some competency.

Yeah, there's some unique competency that you need. I mean, if we double click on what you just said as the things that would be reasons to embed on Rivian, number one, they have 48,000 orders of pickup trucks against the F 150, which is now electric from Ford and a million.

I don't know why you're arguing this, right? Like you're just making a point that we don't have someone on the on the on the panel right now, but someone else could come in and argue. And I would just say, this is the part of the conversation to be honest, Jason, to give you feedback I don't like because Rivian, just in defense of Rivian for a second.

What I have heard is that it's a it's a well engineered car or truck rather, they've done a very smart path to market, which is essentially to, you know, build these delivery trucks for Amazon that allowed them to even frankly, you know, be default alive. Sure, versus, you know, to use the Paul Graham term instead of default dead.

I think the point that's more important here is that it doesn't affect you. So let Rivian do well, you know, and this is part of the cycle. You shouldn't have an opinion publicly. No, no, no, I'm just saying this is the part of the cycle that I don't understand where people legitimately have these zero sum points of view about companies.

And this is where I think, Freiburg is more right than anybody else, which is there are the market is the sum of all these collective points of view. Sure. And I think it's fine. I think it's fine to have one. I think it's a little superficial your point of view, because it's not really sitting on top of a model or anything else.

And I think it's the same kind of superficiality that the Tesla cute guys had about Tesla for many years as well. It takes a long time as somebody that does this every day. And I just want to point this out, it takes an enormous amount of time, an enormous amount of work to be 55% right.

Listen, I've invested in 350 companies, I meet with 2000 companies a year. No, in the public markets, Jason, it's different in the public markets. Listen, my companies are going public now, so I take exception to what you're saying. I know a fraud when I see it. I've seen them before.

Oh, that's a really big statement. I'm not saying Rivian's that fraud level yet. That's not a fraud. No, but the distance between the valuation and reality is in the 50 to 100 billion dollar range. Okay, but that's it. I know, but that's not in control of Rivian. That's not in their control.

Okay, that's in a bunch of external market participants control. So you can't pin that on them. My point is, pin it on is at the market right now seems dysfunctional, but Jason properly measuring throwing shade that you then you should throw shade at T row fidelity, all these people that are bidding up your companies, by the way, because they are the ones that are taking Rivian to 120 billion.

It's not Rivian's fault. And Jason, what's really going on in the market was public speculators. What's really going on is not you can't sell $16 billion in an IPO to speculators. This is much lower price. These are institutionally placed trade orders. But regardless, the market is clearly right now in productive assets, businesses, the market is looking at a time horizon that has never looked at before, which is making bets that are 10 1520 years in the future.

And that's because of the condition that we're in right now from a monetary policy point of view, interest rates are so low, there's nowhere to get yield in other assets. So you have to look further and further out to find value. The market is betting is making 10 year bets, which is like a VC type more than a 10 year bet.

Jason, sorry, I can I just can I just finish my last point because before you interrupt me. My issue, Jason is I think you are an exceptional angel investor. But just the same way you derided a bunch of late stage guys remember last night at poker, when we were talking about late stage folks entering into the angel market, and the series A you were extremely dismissive because you know what the job is to be done to do that.

job well, and they have a different skill set. Similarly, what I would just offer for you to think about is the people that really underwrite public market stocks well, do things and have a skill set that is extremely specific, and it is well trained as well. And I think that Okay, no, I accept that.

I'll defend me. Let me jump into the jake house. If you want to defend me, and that's the people are in shock right now. So way to get yourself back in the game. This guy is purple. This guy is purple. The moon is set. Hell is freezing over right now.

Hell is freezing over. Okay. So here's where I think Jake, I don't know anything about the Rivian company. But where I think Jake is right is we've seen over and over again, that when a company gets when a startup gets a billion dollar plus valuation without a product, invariably, it ends up somewhere between a disappointment and outright fraud, whether you know, it was Theranos or magic leap or Quibi, or whatever.

I'm not saying they're all fraud. I mean, I think just Theranos fraud, whatever. So I think it's reasonable for any, let's say seed or early venture investor to develop the heuristic, that I'm not going to invest in anything with a billion dollar with basically unicorn valuation without seeing the product first, because we've learned we've got our hands burnt so many times from these overhyped companies.

And here's where I agree if I can't see and use the product, I'm not investing. I'll invest in a seed stage, but I will not invest in a unicorn. I agree with that. But what I'm saying is when a company is going public like that, there is demonstrable proof of concept there.

Okay, the only market in which that's not true is in biotechnology. Well, I would say for Fisker and Nikola, two related companies, those ones seem very, very shaky, you can debate about the scalability of these things. And you can debate that people didn't do the diligence, but they had to at least put a proof of concept out there for you to judge.

If people don't do the work, I agree with you, like if you're rolling down a hill, sure. I agree with you. But if you're rolling down a hill, sure. No, but my point is, if you were there, and you did your work, you would have seen what you needed to see.

What I have heard from people who were investors in both Lucid and Rivian, is that they have sat in the cars, they've driven the cars, they've spent time with them, they've seen the factories. And it's very much real. Now what they're debating is ramp and velocity and scale. I don't know.

I don't have a position in either. Neither do I. I have the bigger macro point of view, which is important to me, which is just because these things are in the public markets, I think people think it's easy to judge. And I think actually modeling them and making good decisions is just as hard as it is for private companies.

We need to roll this clip because there is somebody who is giving exceptional advice on CNBC. Let's roll the clip. Yeah, so well up starts up about 25% just in four days since we since we bought it, we bought it on about four days ago. So that's actually made a nice little move in the short term, probably a little extended right now, but longer term, that that's a that's a good looking name.

A very powerful, very strong earnings. These stocks are they do. What do they do? Excuse me? What does upstart do? Well, I'm what kind of company is it? Yeah, I'm not you're breaking up. Oh, I guess we've got an audio problem. I'm sorry. Brutal. Who is this guy? Who is he?

I have no idea. Jake, how is that? Is that like your uncle or something? Who is that guy? Yeah, I mean, just to the point to get on CNBC. Well, you know, the guy's been on many times. But doesn't this prove what we were saying, which is that you've got to do your own principal work here.

That is why we wanted to play. Here's a talking head who's probably getting paid for selling some books and giving advice. Who knows nothing about what he's telling you. You can join his membership club for 1000 a month. I'm sure he's publishing lots of papers that show that he's a highly successful, profitable investor and look how smart he is.

He doesn't even know the company just promoted. On CNBC. It's incredible. On a mechanical basis here, Chamath, you and I have been on CNBC many times. In that moment, what is going on? What do you think is going on in the host's mind? And the producer who has to dump this call?

Let's move on. They're watching this. Let's move on. I just the breakdown when he says, I'm sorry. I have no idea. What do they do? I think the point's been made. I think the point's been made. Oh, my Lord. Everybody should do their own work. Yeah. Do your work.

Let's keep going. Zach, you look like you want to say something. I mean, it just shows the agenda. Yeah, look, I mean, there is a massive agenda in corporate journalism. There's an agenda by the people on these shows to promote positions. There's an agenda by the reporters themselves and on and on and on it goes.

So to Chamath's point, if you just take them at face value, and you don't do your own work, then you're buying into someone else's agenda. Trust yourself. Okay. One thing that we are trying to all understand is inflation. The CPI has gone up 6.2% in October, the highest jump in 31 years since 1990.

According to the Wall Street Journal, fifth largest straight month, fifth straight month of inflation above 5%. Somebody tweeted out, we'll pull it up here. Denver Bitcoin put out a year over year commodity chart, we can throw up on the screen. And then, I think, Friedberg, you shared in the chat, the average weekly retail prices around fertilizer.

What are our thoughts on the nature of inflation and how that affects our investment? I think it's persistent. It's persistent. And the reason I think it's persistent is that all of these things are intertwined. And so, you know, if you want to just bear with me for a second, like when this let's just go to the, the entry level economic job, right?

So you're a barista at Starbucks, or you work at McDonald's, and you're making 17 to $20 an hour. What that does is it shifts labor. And eventually, there are other people that are entering the workforce or, you know, may shift jobs. And essentially, it just causes this leaky bucket effect where everybody else has to then accommodate itself.

So you know, you have a guy like, you know, you have a company like Amazon, which is now going to pay 25 or $30 to keep folks, right? Because otherwise, they may say, Oh, you know, if I make 15 or $16 an hour, I'd rather work at McDonald's, it's simply college, it's not backbreaking work, blah, blah, blah.

So then they start to increase the amount that they pay, they increase their benefits and the like. I saw this thing this week, there's a crazy thing that's happening, though, which is it's now pulling people from non traditional job classes into those jobs, there are teachers that are leaving teaching to go work at an Amazon warehouse, there are firefighters, that are going to go work at an Amazon warehouse, there are people that are quitting being a firefighter to go work at an Amazon warehouse, because you make the same or more.

Plus, you have all of these other benefits, and the job is structurally a lot easier. And so people are making different optimizations. And to that point, I think we talked about this, and Nick, you can put it in the group chat. In Reddit, as an example, there is more engagement in the subreddit around having a simple work life than there is now in Wall Street.

And so I think that's a really good point. So there's been a structural cultural change where people need to get paid more to do the same amount of work. And then at the same time, you have all of the all of the supply side getting more expensive. fertilizer makes corn more expensive lumber makes house prices more expensive chip prices makes the iPhone and cars more expensive or completely backlogged.

You know, yesterday at poker, Sonny was showing us he bought a Tesla. And the delivery period is October of 2022. Yeah, it's freaking crazy. So I think that it's a it's this is the beginning of a persistence. I think those are all like really valid points. The thing I'm seeing now is I think we've moved into what I'll call a contagion phase of inflation, which is people are hearing about inflation.

They're seeing it and some places my guests went up a little bit, my milk went up a little bit, whatever. And they're saying, Well, I guess if everybody's raising prices, I need to raise the prices as well of whatever I provide in the world. So I can just keep up with everybody else.

And they're not looking at their inputs necessarily and saying I need to charge more, or that's the best business decision. They're just saying, everything's going up around me. And so they raise prices. I've literally had this happen three or four times. And I went to buy a car. And they wanted 15k over sticker and I didn't buy it based on principle.

But I'm sitting here going like, maybe I'm an idiot. Maybe I should just pay the 15k over sticker. What are your thoughts, Saxon inflation and the contagion? My thoughts are I told you guys like six months ago about this. Yeah. Can we just replay what I said on episode 30?

To it's got his researchers in the background. Give me written down what you said. Oh, yeah, absolutely. No, this guy's in the fucking debate club. Stanford debate club. Well, some of us when we make predictions, take them seriously. So you know, is that a dig at Professor ice cold takes?

I'll give you guys a link to a prediction that was made. Here's I mean, I just want to replay the 20 seconds. I said, Oh, look at you back in May. Here we go. The two Davids dueling again, just like in the group chat. Here's Friedberg. January 1 2021.

If you don't think inflation is already here, you missed what happened to the stock market companies aren't performing better. We're just inflating everything financial assets first everything also follow. That was a good one. So just make your point. Just make your point. Just add the clip. I'm beginning to wonder if Biden's going to be a Jimmy Carter here because, frankly, all he had to do was leave things well enough alone.

COVID was winding down. We had a vaccine. All they had to do was distribute it to as many people as possible. And COVID let the recovery take shape. And instead, they push this insane. $10 trillion agenda is going to backfire massively. Look, if the economy turns, we were set for a post COVID boom.

And right now that is all at risk because, Jamal, like you're saying, they're keeping the economy closed or part parts of it way too long. They then overcompensate for that by printing a ton of money. And then they overcompensate for that by raising taxes too much. Just to build on that.

So that second step of their overcompensating their inability to open with money is so true. Because then what happens is your labor force stays impaired because people make enough money by not working. It was true. And I said in May, it's even more true now. He said it was there was inflation.

Okay, so there's inflation. Okay, so now great. Good job. So my prediction is true. Yeah, I made one in January that said the same thing. Now look, you can do three things to you can do three things to curb inflation. Raise rates, right? When you raise interest rates, you slow spending.

Prices come down. Inflation is going to slow down. And then you're going to have to do three things. You're going to have to do three things. You're going to have to do three things. Prices come down. Inflation slows. But the issue when you raise rates is obviously you see things like job loss and economic growth declines.

And it can very quickly spiral the other way. This is the big challenge of Fed tapering. The other option is we've seen a significant attempt at lately is to raise revenue, right? So increased tax rates, tax a broader swath of people at a higher rate or broader swath of business at a higher rate.

So it's very likely that tax revenue could kind of present itself again as a driver if inflation continues to spiral up. And the third, which is the least likely, is cut spending, right? The federal government spending the way it does right now makes a very inefficient way of kind of putting capital into the system and inflating.

We've seen historically that anything the federal government spends money on, like health care and education, the costs very quickly spiral out of control. Super inefficient. Why not just give that money to the free market to make decisions on how to spend it? It would be more efficient, etc. And the market would effectively find balance where buyers and sellers are equivalent as well.

So that's why I think that the federal government is so important. But it's also a really important thing to keep in mind. You know, the money is going to be the first thing that comes into the market, right? So that's why it's important to keep in mind. And then the second option, which I think is kind of a very important one, is that the federal government is going to be the first one to start a war against the economy.

And the second option is the one that people don't talk about, which I think may end up becoming an important option, not kind of oblique option, but more kind of backdrop, is to start a war. And, you know, when you start a war... And I think that's the most important thing, because the policy makers would say, "Hey, let's go start a war to decrease inflation." Taiwan.

But the premise that conflict can improve the economy is an important backdrop that starts to play into policy decisions that might get made over the next couple of months and quarters. And that's really important. Whether or not the posturing is one of partnership and a policy decision, but also of the fact that the government is taking a stand against the economy and the government is taking a stand against the economy, and the government is taking a stand against the economy and the government is taking a stand against the economy.

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