all right everybody uh let's get the show started here wait jason why are you wearing a tux what's going on there oh well it's time for a very emotional segment we do here on the all-in podcast i just got to get myself composed for this oh jason are you okay i'm i'm gonna be okay i think it looks like you're fighting back at tier what's yeah this is always a tough one this year we tragically lost giants in our industry these individuals bravely honed their craft at open ai before departing ilia suskeever he left he left us in may jan like also left in may john shulman tragically left us in august wait these are all ai employees yes sir it's so left on wednesday bob mcgrew also left on wednesday too short too short and mira mirati also left us tragically on wednesday we lost mirror too yeah and greg brockman is on extended leave the enforcer he left too thank you for your service your memories will live on as training data and may your memories be a vesting and it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy sorry oh my goodness all those losses wow that is three in one day three in one day my goodness i thought open ai was nothing without its people well i mean this is a this is a great whoa we lost them whoa what's happening wait oh wait what this is like the photo and back to the future wow they're just all gone wait oh no don't worry he's replacing everybody here we go let's replace it with a g700 a bugatti and i guess sam's got mountains of cash so don't worry he's got a backup plan anyway as an industry and as leaders in the industry the show sends its regards to sam and the open ai team on their tragic losses and congratulations on the 150 billion dollar valuation and you're seven percent sam now just cashed in 10 billion dollars apparently so congratulations to fan of uh friend of the pod sam allman is the round that's all right out of some article right that's not like confirmed or anything is all of that done i mean it's reportedly allegedly that he's gonna have seven percent of the company and we can jump right into our first story i mean what i'm saying is has the money been wired and the dog's been signed according to reports this round is contingent on not being a um non-profit anymore and sorting that all out they have to remove the profit cap and do the c corp there's some article that reported this right none of us it's not some article it's bloomberg and it got a lot of traction and it was re-reported by a lot of places and i don't see anyone disputing it so is mainstream media we trust the mainstream media in this case because i think that when we could do a good bit yeah that's mine no i think that bloomberg bloomberg reported it based on obviously talks that are ongoing with investors who have committed to this round yeah and no one's disputing it has anyone said it's not true this has been speculated for months the 150 billion valuation raising something in the range of six to seven billion if you do the math on that and bloomberg is correct that sam altman got his seven percent i guess that would be the reality is you can't raise six billion dollars without probably meeting with a few dozen firms and some number of junior people in those few dozen firms are having a conversation or two with reporters so you can kind of see how it gets out all right and before we get to our uh first story there about open ai congratulations to chamath let's pull up the photo here he was a featured guest on uh the alex jones show no sorry i'm sorry uh that would be uh joe rogan congratulations on coming to austin and being on joe rogan what was it like to do a three hour podcast with uh joe rogan it's great i mean i loved it he's really awesome he's super cool it's good to do long form stuff like this so that i can actually talk clearly is the limitation of this podcast is the other three of us finally you have found a way to make it about yourself um i saw a comment somebody commented like oh wow it's like amazing to hear chamath expand on topics throughout the constant eruptions also known as moderation someone called me someone called me from from from the 70s show i thought that was funny the the amount of trash talking in rogan's youtube comments it's next level it is i mean it is it is the wild wild west uh in in terms of the comment section on youtube yeah um a bunch of comments asking jake out why do you call it alex jones is that because it's just a texas short podcaster who's short and stout and they look similar so it's just a but i mean it looks like alex jones uh started lifting weights actually you know they're both uh the same height and yeah i saw joe rogan 25 years ago doing stand-up i have a photo with him at the club it was like a small club in san francisco and we hung out with him afterwards he was just like a nobody back in the day he was like a stand-up guy right now he's yeah uber star well you have to go back pretty far for joe rogan to be a nobody i mean he had a tv show for a long time and two of them he was more like a stand-up comic for a while he was a stand-up comic stand-up comic yeah fear factor that's right that's but didn't he also do survivor or one of those like so i think and then the ufc i mean this guy's got four at four i feel like that's where he blew up ufc yeah yeah well i mean i think he got the ufc at a fear factor and being a ufc fighter and a comedian and there's like a famous story where like dana white was pursuing him and he was like i don't know and then dana white's like i'll send a plane for you you can bring your friends he's like okay fine i'll do it he did it for free and then dana white pursued him heavily to become the voice of the ufc and yeah and obviously it's grown tremendously and it's you know worth billions of dollars okay so how is open ai worth 150 billion dollars can anyone apply well why don't we get into the topic should we make the bull case and the bear case all right open ai as we were just joking in the opening segment is trying to convert into a for-profit benefit corporation that's a b corp it just means i will explain b corp later sam altman is reportedly i thought they're converting to a c corp no it's the same thing b corp doesn't really benefit corporation is a c corporation variant that is not a non-profit but the board of directors sax is required not only to be a fiduciary for all shareholders but also for the stated mission of the company that's my understanding of a b corp am i right freeberg external stakeholders yeah so like the environment or society or whatever but it all from all other kind of legal tax factors it's the same as a c corp and it's a way to i guess signal to investors the market employees that you care about something more than just profit so famous most famous b corp i think is toms is that the shoe company toms that's a famous b corp somebody will look it up here patagonia yeah that falls into that category so for profit with a mission reuters has cited anonymous sources close to the company that the plan is still being hashed out with lawyers and shareholders and the timeline isn't certain but what's being discussed is that the uh non-profit will continue to exist as a minority shareholder in the new company how much of a minority shareholder i guess is uh the devil's in the detail there do they own one percent or 49 the uh very much discussed friedberg 100x profit cap for investors will be removed that means investors like vinod friend of the pod and reed hoffman also friend of the pod could see a 100x turn into a thousand x or more according to the bloomberg report sam waltman's going to get his equity finally seven percent that would put him at around 10.5 billion if this is all true and open ai could be valued as high as 150 billion dollars we'll get into all the shenanigans but let's start with your question freeberg and since you asked it i'm going to boomerang it back to you make the bull case for 150 dollar 150 billion dollar valuation the bull case would be that the moat in the business with respect to model performance and infrastructure gets extended with the large amount of capital that they're raising they aggressively deploy it they are very strategic and tactical with respect to how they deploy that infrastructure to continue to improve model performance and as a result continue to extend their advantage in both consumer and enterprise applications the api tools and so on that they offer and so they can maintain both kind of model and application performance leads that they have today across the board i would say like the the o1 model their voice application sora has not been released publicly but if it does and it looks like what it's been demoed to be it's certainly ahead of the the pack so there's a lot of uh aspects of of open ai today that kind of makes them a leader and if they can deploy infrastructure to maintain that lead and not let google microsoft amazon and others catch up then their ability to use that capital wisely keeps them ahead and ultimately as we all know there's a multi-trillion dollar market to capture here making lots of verticals lots of applications lots of products so they could become a a true kind of global player here plus the extension into computing which i'm excited to talk about later when we get into the computing stuff sacks here's a chart of open areas revenue growth that has been piecemeal together from various sources at various times but you'll see here they are reportedly as of june of 2024 on a 3.4 billion run rate for this year after hitting 2 billion in 23 1.3 billion in october of 23 and then back in 2022 which reported they only had 28 million in revenue so this is a pretty pretty hot a pretty a pretty big streak here in terms of revenue growth i would put it at 50 times top line revenue 150 billion valuation you want to give us the bear case maybe or the bull case well so the the whisper numbers i heard was that their revenue run rate for this year was in the four to six billion range which is a little higher than that so you're right if it's really more like 3.4 this valuation is about 50 times current revenue but if it's more like 5 billion then it's only 30 times and if it's growing 100 year over year it's only 15 times next year so depending what the numbers actually are the 150 billion valuation could be warranted i don't think 15 times ford arr is a high valuation for a company that has this kind of strategic opportunity i think it all comes down to the durability of its comparative advantage here i think there's no question that open ai is the leader of the pack it has the most advanced ai models it's got the best developer ecosystem the best apis it keeps rolling out new products and the question is just how durable that advantage is is there really a moat to any of this for example meta just announced llama 3.2 which can do voice and this is roughly at the same time that open ai just released its voice api so the open source ecosystem is kind of hot on open ai's heels the large companies google microsoft so forth they're hot on their heels too although it seems like they're further behind where meta is and the question is just can open ai maintain its lead can it consolidate its lead can it develop some moats if so it's on track to be the next trillion dollar big tech company but if not it could be eroded and you could see the value of open ai get get commoditized and we'll look back on it as kind of a cautionary tale okay chamath do us a favor here if there is a bear case what is it okay let's steal a man the bear case yes that's what i'm asking please so one would just be on the fundamental technology itself and i think the version of that story would go that the underlying frameworks that people are using to make these models great is well described and available in open source on top of that there are at least two viable open source models that are as good or better at any point in time than open ai so what that would mean is that the value of those models the economic value basically goes to zero and it's a consumer surplus for the people that use it so that's very hard theoretically to monetize i think the second part of the bear case would be that specifically meta becomes much more aggressive in inserting meta ai into all of the critical apps that they control because those apps really are the front door to billions of people on a daily basis so that would mean whatsapp instagram messenger the facebook app and threads gets refactored in a way where instead of leaving that application to go to a chat gpt like app you would just stay in the app and then the companion to that would be that google also does the same thing with their version in front of search so those two big front doors to the internet become much more aggressive in giving you a reason to not have to go to chat gpt because a their answers are just as good and b they're right there in a few less clicks for you yeah so that would be the that would be the second piece the third piece is that all of these models basically run out of viable data to differentiate themselves and it basically becomes a race around synthetic information and synthetic data which is a cost problem meaning if you're going to invent synthetic data you're going to have to spend money to do it and the large companies facebook microsoft amazon google have effectively infinite money compared to any startup and then the fourth which is the most quizzical one is what does the human capital thing tell you about what's going on it reads a little bit like a telenovela i have not in my time in silicon valley ever seen a company that's supposedly on such a straight line to a rocket ship have so much high level churn and i but i've also never seen a company have this much liquidity and so how are people deciding to leave if they think it's going to be a trillion dollar company and why when things are just starting to cook would you leave if you are technically enamored with what you're building so if you had to construct the bear case i think those would be the four things open source front door competition the move to synthetic data and all of the executive turnover would be sort of why you would say maybe there's a fire where there's all this smoke okay i think this is very well put and i have been using chat gpt and claude and gemini exclusively i stopped using google search and i also stopped sax asking people on my team to do stuff before i asked chat gpt to do it specifically freeberg the o1 version and the o1 version is distinctly different have you gentlemen been using o1 like on a daily basis okay so we can have a really interesting conversation here i did something on my other podcast this week in startups that i'll show you right now that was crazy yesterday one is a grinch is a game changer yes it's the first real it's the first real chain of thought production system yes that i think we've seen are using o1 preview or o1 mini uh i am using o1 preview now let me show you what i did here just just so the audience can level set here if you're not watching us go to youtube and type in all in and and you can you can watch us we do video here so i was analyzing you know just some early stage uh deals and cap tables and i put in here hey a startup just raised some money at this valuation here's what the friends and family invested the accelerator the seed investor etc in other words like the history the investment history in a company what o1 does distinctly differently than the previous versions and the previous version i felt was three to six months ahead of competitors this is a year ahead of competitors and so here chamath if you look it said it thought for 77 seconds and if you click the down arrow sax what you'll see is it gives you an idea of what its rationale is for interpreting and what secondary queries it's doing in order to give you this is called chain of thought right and this is the underlying mega model that sits on top of the llms and the mega model effectively the chain of thought approach is the model asks itself the question how should i answer this question right and then it comes up with an answer and then it says now based on that what are the steps i should take to answer the question so the model keeps asking itself questions related to the structure of the question that you ask and then it comes up with a series of steps that it can then call the llm to do to fill in the blanks link them all together and come up with the answer it's the same way that a human train of thought works and it really is the the kind of ultimate evolution of what a lot of people have said these systems need to become which is a much more call it intuitive approach to answering questions rather than just predictive text based on the single statement you made and it really is changing the game and everyone is going to chase this and follow this it is the new paradigm for for how these ai kind of systems will work and by the way what this did was what prompt engineers were doing or prompt engineering websites were doing which was trying to help you construct your question and so if you look to this one it says listing disparities i'll compile a cap table with investments and valuations building the cap table accessing the share evaluation breaking down ownership breaking down ownership etc evaluating the terms and then it checks its work a bit it weights investment options and you can see this is a this is fired off like two dozen different queries to as freebroke correctly pointed out you know build this chain and it got incredible answers explain the form so it's thinking about what your next question would be and this when i share this with my team it was like a super game changer uh sax you had some thoughts here well yeah i mean this is pretty impressive and just to build on what freeberg was saying about chain of thought where this all leads is to agents where you can actually tell the ai to do work for you you give it an objective it can break the objective down into tasks and then it can work each of those tasks and open ai at a recent meeting with investors said that phd level reasoning was next on its roadmap and then agents weren't far behind that they've now released the at least the preview of the phd level reasoning with this oh one model so i think we can expect an announcement pretty soon about agents yeah and so and if you think about if you think about business value you know we think a lot about this is like where's the sas opportunity and all this the software as a service opportunity it's going to be an agents i think we'll ultimately look back on these sort of chat models as a little bit of a parlor trick compared to what agents are going to do in the workplace if you've ever been to a call center or an operations center they're also called service factories it's assembly lines of people doing very complicated knowledge work but ultimately you can unravel exactly what the chain is there the chain of thought that goes into their decisions it's very complicated and that's why you have to have humans doing it but you could imagine that once system integrators or enterprise sas apps go into these places go into these companies they integrate the data and then they map out the workflow you could replace a lot of these steps in the workflow with agents yeah by the way it's not just it's not just call centers i had a conversation with um i'm on the board of a company with the ceo the other day and he was like well we're gonna hire an analyst that's gonna sit between our kind of retail sales operations and do the and you know figure out what's working to drive marketing decisions and i'm like no you're not like i i really think that that would be a mistake because today you can use oh one and describe just feed it the data and describe the analysis you want to get out of that data and within a few minutes and i've now done this probably a dozen times in the last week with different projects internally at my company it gives you the entire answer that an analyst would have taken days to put together for you and if you think about what an analyst's job has been historically is they take data and then they manipulate it and the big evolution in software over the last decade and a half has been tools that give that analyst leverage to do that data manipulation more quickly like tableau and you know r and all sorts of different toolkits that are out there but now you don't even need the analyst because the analyst is the chain of thought it's the prompting from the model and it's completely going to change how knowledge work is done everyone that owns a function no longer needs an analyst the analyst is the model that's sitting on the computer in front of you right now and you tell it what you want and not days later but minutes later you get your answer it's completely revolutionary in um uh ad hoc uh knowledge work as well as kind of this repetitive structured knowledge this is such a good point freeberg the ad hoc piece of it when we're processing 20 000 applications for funding a year we do 100 plus meetings a week the analysts on our team are now putting in the transcripts um and key questions about markets and they are getting so smart so fast that you know when somebody comes to them with a marketplace in diamonds their understanding of the diamond marketplace becomes so rich so fast that we can evaluate companies faster then we're also seeing uh chamath uh before we call our lawyers when we have a legal question about a document we start putting in you know let's say the the standard note template or the standard safe template we put in the new one and there's a really cool project by google called notebook l lm where you can put in multiple documents and you can start asking questions so imagine you take every single legal document sacks that yammer had when you had chamath as an investor i'm not sure if he's on the board and you can start asking questions about the documents and we have had people make changes to these documents and it immediately finds them explains them and so everybody's just getting so goddamn smart so fast using these tools that i insisted that every person on the team when they hit control tab it opens a chat gpt4 window in 01 and we burned out our credits immediately like it stopped us it said you're you're you have to stop using it for the rest of the month chamath your thoughts on this we're seeing it in real time in 80 90.

what i'll tell you is what sachs said is totally right there's so many companies that have very complicated processes that are a combination of well-trained and well-meaning people and bad software and what i mean by bad software is that some other third party came in listened to what your business process was and then wrote this clunky deterministic code usually on top of some system of record charged you tens or hundreds of millions of dollars for it and then left and will support it only if you keep paying them millions of dollars a year that whole thing is so nuts because the ability for people to do work i think has been very much constrained and it's constrained by people trying to do the right thing using really really terrible software and all of that will go away the radical idea that i would put out there is i think that systems of record no longer exist because they don't need to and the reason is because all you have is data and you have a pipeline of information can you level set and just explain to people what system of record is just so so inside of a company you'll have a handful of systems that people would say are the single source of truth they're the things that are used for reporting compliance an example would be for your general ledger so to netsuite record your revenues you'd use netsuite or you'd use oracle gl or you'd use workday financials then you'd have a different system of record for all of your revenue generating activities so who are all of the people you sell to how are sales going what is the pipeline there's companies like salesforce or hubspot sugar crm then there's a system of record for all the employees that work for you all the benefits they have what is their salary this is hris so the point is that the software economy over the last 20 years and this is trillions of dollars of market cap and hundreds of billions of revenue have been built on this premise that we will create this system of record you will build apps on top of the system of record and the knowledge workers will come in and that's how they will get work done and i think that sax is right this totally flips that on its head instead what will happen is people will provision an agent and roughly direct what they want the outcome to be and they'll be process independent they won't care how they do it they just want the answer so i think two things happen the obvious thing that happens in that world is systems of record lose a grip on the vault that they had in terms of the data that runs a company you don't necessarily need it with in the same reliance and primacy that you did five and ten years ago that'll have an impact to the software economy and the second thing that i think is even more important than that is that then the atomic size of companies changes because each company will get much more leverage from using software and few people versus lots of people with a few pieces of software and so that inversion i think creates tremendous potential for operating leverage all right you're a thought sax you operate in the sas space with system of records and investing in these type of companies give us your take well it's interesting we were having a version of this conversation last week on the pod and i started getting texts from benioff as he was listening to it and then oh he called me and i think he got a little bit triggered by the idea that systems of record like salesforce are going to be obsolete in this new ai era and he made a very compelling case to me about why that wouldn't happen which is yeah well first of all i think ai models are predictive i mean at the end of the day they're predicting the next set of texts and and so forth and when it comes to like your employee list or your customer list you just want to have a source of truth you don't want it to be 98 accurate you just want to be 100 accurate you want to know if the federal government asks you for the tax id numbers of your employees you just want to be able to give it to them if wall street analysts asks you for your customer list and what the gap revenue is you just want to be able to provide that you don't want ai models figuring it out so you're still going to need a system of record furthermore he made the point that you still need databases you still need enterprise security if you're dealing with enterprises you still need compliance you still need sharing models there's all these aspects all these things that have been built on top of the database that sas company's been doing for 25 years and then the final point that i think is compelling is that enterprise customers don't want to diy it right they don't want to figure out how to put this together and you can't just hand them an llm and say here you go there's a lot of work that is needed in order to make these models productive and so at a minimum you're going to need system integrators and consultants to come in there connect hold on just connect all the enterprise data to these models map the workflows you have to do that now how is that different from how this this clunky software sold today i mean look i i don't want to take away from the quality of the company that mark has built and what he's done for the cloud economy so let's just put that aside but i wish this is what we could have actually all been on stage and talked about i told him when he was at the summit i said that because i disagree with basically every premise of those three things number one systems integrators exist today to build apps on top of these things why do you think you have companies like viva how can a 20 billion dollar plus company get built on top of salesforce it's because it doesn't do what it's meant to do that's why otherwise app stores are a great way to allow people to build on your platform and and cover those niche cases the point i'm trying to make is that's no different than the economy that exists today it's just going to transform to different groups of people number one well by the way he said he's willing to come on the pod and talk about this very issue but just with you just with you great he'll come on the pod and discuss whether ai makes sass obsolete a lot of people are asking that question let's talk about it next year at the summit can you talk about his uh philanthropy first okay let's get back to focus here let's get focused everybody spicy love you mark who's coming to dreamforce raise your hand i want to make another point the second point is that when you have agents i think that we are overestimating what a system of record is david what you talked about is actually just an encrypted file or it's a bunch of rows in some database or it's in some data lake somewhere you don't need to spend tens or hundreds of millions of dollars to wrap your revenue in something that says it's a system of record you don't need that actually you can just pipe that stuff directly from stripe into snowflake and you can just transform it and do what you will with it and then report it i'll tell you you could do that today it's just that that's an interesting point through steak dinners and golf outings and all this stuff we've sold cios this idea that you need to wrap it in something called a system of record and all i'm saying is when you confront the total cost of that versus what the alternative that is clearly going to happen in the next five or ten years irrespective of whether any of us build it or not it'll be definitely not be able to just you just won't be able to justify it because it's going to cost a fraction of price there's probably also an aspect of this that we can't predict what is going to work with respect to data structure so right now all of um all of the the tooling for ai is on the front end and we haven't yet unleashed ai on the back end which is if you told the ai here's all the data ingest i'm going to be doing from all these different points in my business figure out what you want to do with all that data the ai will eventually come up with its own data structure and data system no that's not nothing that will look nothing like right and that's already happening right and so that's nothing like what we have today in the same vein that we don't understand how the translation works in a in an in an llm we don't understand how a lot of the function works a lot of the data structure and data architecture we won't understand clearly because it's going to be obfuscated by the model driving the the development there are open source agentic frameworks that already do freeberg what you're saying that so it's not true that it's not been done it's already oh yeah sure so maybe it's being done right that's so it hasn't been fully implemented to replace the system of record there are companies uh i'll give you an example of one like mechanical orchard they'll go into the most gnarliest of environments and what they will do is they will launch these agents that observe it's sort of what i told you guys before the io stream of these apps and then reconstruct everything in the middle automatically i don't understand why we think that there's a world where customer quality and nps would not go sky high for a company that has some old legacy fortran system and now they can just pay you know mechanical orchard a few million bucks and they'll just replace it in a matter of months it's going to happen right yeah that's the very interesting piece for me is i'm you know watching startups you know working on this the ai first ones i think are going to come to it with a totally different cost structure the idea of paying for seats and i mean some of these seats are five thousand per person per year you nailed it a year ago when you were like oh you mentioned some company that had like flat pricing at first by the way when you said that i thought this is nuts but you're right it actually makes a ton of sense because if you have a fixed group of people who can use this tooling to basically effectively be as productive as a company that's 10 times as big as you you can afford to flat price your software because you can just work backwards from what margin structure you want and it's still meaningfully cheaper than any other alternative a lot of startups now are doing consumption based pricing so they're saying you know how many um how many sales calls are you doing how many are we analyzing as opposed to how many sales executives do you have because when you have agents as we're talking about those agents are going to do a lot of the work so we're going to see the number of people working at companies become fixed and i think the static team size that we're seeing at a lot of large companies is only going to continue it's going to be down into the right and if you think you're going to get a high-paying job at a big tech company and you have to beat the agent you're going to have to beat the maestro who has five agents working for them i think this is going to be a completely different world uh chima this i want to get back to open ai with a couple of other pieces so let's wrap this up so we get to the next word on this yes please last word for you that's right so look i i think that on the whole i agree with benioff here that there's more net new opportunity for ai companies whether they be startups or you know existing big companies like salesforce that are trying to do ai then there is disruption i think there will be some disruption it's very hard for us to see exactly what ai is going to look like in five or ten years so i don't want to discount the possibility that there will be some disruption of existing players but i think on the whole there's more net new opportunity for example the most highly valued public software company right now in terms of ar multiple is palantir and i think that's largely because the market perceives palantir as having a big ai opportunity what is palantir's approach the first thing palantir does when they go into a customer is they integrate with all of its systems and they're dealing with the largest enterprises they're dealing with the government the pentagon department of defense the first thing they do is go in and integrate with all of these legacy systems and they collect all of the data in one place they call it creating a digital twin and once all the data is in one place with the right permissions and safeguards now analysts can start working it and that was their historical value proposition but in addition ai can now start working that problem so anything that the analyst could work now ai is going to be able to work and so they're in an ideal position to master these new ai workflows so what is the point i'm making it's just that you can't just throw an llm at these large enterprises you have to go in there and integrate with the existing systems it's not about ripping out the existing systems because that's just a lot of headaches that nobody needs it's generally an easier approach just to collect except except when the renewal comes what happens when you have to you know you got a really good negotiating dollars on something yeah and then you're going to renegotiate are you going to spend a billion dollars again five years from now it just doesn't seem very likely there's going to be a lot of hardcore negotiations going on chamath people are going to ask for 20 off 50 off and people are going to have to be more competitive that's all i suspect i suspect palantir's go to market when they start to really scale they'll be able to under price a bunch of these other alternatives and it so i think that when you look at the impacts and pricing that all of these open source and closed source model companies have now introduced in terms of the price per token what we've seen is just a massive step function lower right so it is incredibly deflationary so the things that sit on top are going to get priced as a function of that of that cost which means it will be an order of magnitude cheaper than the stuff that it replaces which means that a company would almost have to purposely want to keep paying tens of millions of dollars when they don't have to they would need to make that as an explicit decision and i think that very few companies will be in a position to be that cavalier in five and ten years so you're either going to rebase the revenues of a bunch of these existing deterministic companies or you're going to create an entire economy of new ones that have a fraction of the revenues today but a very different profitability profile i just think i think whenever you're dealing with a whenever you're dealing with a disruption as big as this current one i think it's always tempting to think in terms of the existing pie getting disrupted and shrunk as opposed to the pie getting so big with new use cases that on the whole the ecosystem benefits no no i agree with that i suspect that's what's going to happen no i i agree with that my my only point is that the pie can get bigger while the slices get much much smaller well i mean i right between the two of you i think is um the truth because what's happening is if you look at investing it's very hard to get into these late stage companies because they don't need as much capital because to your point chamath they when they do hit profitability with 10 or 20 people the revenue per employee is going way up if you look at google uber airbnb and facebook meta they have the same number or less employees than they did three years ago but they're all growing in that 20 to 30 percent a year which means in but two to three years each of those companies has doubled revenue per employee so that concept of more efficiency and then that trickles down sacks to the startup investing space where you and i are i'm a pre-seed seed investor you're a seed series a investor if you don't get in in those three or four rounds i think it's going to be really expensive and the companies are not going to need as much money downstream speaking of of investing in late stage companies we never closed the loop on the whole open ai thing what did we think of the fact that they're completely changing the structure of this company they're changing it into a corporation from the non-profit and sam's now getting a 10 billion dollar stock package he's not in for the money he has health insurance sex but we never did congress i don't need money i've got enough money i just needed the health insurance pull the clip up nick pull the clip i mean it's the funniest clip ever like coffee no it's in congress watch it this is what is in congress you make a lot of money do you i make no i'm paid enough for health insurance i have no equity in open ai really that's interesting you need a lawyer i need a what you need a lawyer or an agent i i'm doing this because i love it it's the greatest look at me don't believe him i this can i ask you a question there sacks are you doing this venture capital where you put the money in the startups because you love it or because you're working with the entrepreneurs another home in a coastal city and put more jet fuel in that plane i need an answer for the people of the sovereign state of mississippi no louisiana that's john kennedy he's a very smart guy actually with a lot of you know sort of common folk wisdom he got that simple talk yeah yeah he's very funny but he's very funny if you you listen to him he knows how to slice and dice you might need to get yourself uh one of them fancy agents from hollywood or an attorney from the wilson suncini corporation to renegotiate your contract son because you're worth a lot more from what i can gather in your performance today than just some simple healthcare and uh i hope you took the blue cross blue shield i would like to make two semi-serious observations let's go yeah please get us back on track i think the first is that there's going to be a lot of people that are looking at the architecture of this conversion because if it passes muster everybody should do it think about this model let's just say that you're in a market and you start as a non-profit what that really means is you pay no income tax so for a long time you put out a little bit of the percentage of whatever you earn but you can now outspend and outcompete all of your competitors and then once you win you flip to a corporation that's a great hack on the tax code and you let the donators get first bite of the apple if you do convert because remember vinod and hoffman got all their shares on the conversion the other way will also work as well because there's no there's nothing that says you can't go in the other direction so let's assume that you're already a for-profit company but you're in a space with a bunch of competitors can't you just do this conversion in reverse become a non-profit again you pay no income tax so now you are economically advantaged relative to your competitors and then when they wither and die or you can outspend them you flip back to a for-profit again i think the the point is that that there's a lot of people that are going to watch this closely and if it's legal and it's allowed i i just don't understand why everybody wouldn't do this yeah i mean that was elon's point as well and i mean the second thing which is just more of like cultural observation is and you brought up elon my comment to you guys yesterday and i'll just make the comment today it's a little bit disheartening to see a situation where elon built something absolutely incredible defied every expectation and then had the justice system take 55 billion dollars away from him his payment package you're referring to at his payment package the options and then on the other side sam's going to pull something like this off definitely pushing the boundaries and he's going to make 10 billion and i just think when you put those two things in contrast that's not how the system should probably work i think is what most people would say freeberg you've been a little quiet here any thoughts on the transaction the non-profit to for-profit if you were looking at that in what you're doing do you see a way that ohalo could take a non-profit status raise a bunch of money through donations for virtuous work then license those patents to your for-profit would that be advantageous to you and do you think this could become absolutely zero idea i have no idea what they're doing i don't know how they're converting a non-profit to a for-profit none of us have the details on this there's there may be significant tax implications the payments they need to make i don't think any of us no i certainly don't i don't know if there's actually a real benefit here if there is i'm sure everyone would do it no one's doing it so there's probably a reason why it's difficult i don't know it's been done a couple times yeah the mozilla foundation did it we talked about that in a previous episode sacks you want to you want to wrap us up here on the corporate structure any final thoughts i mean elon put in 50 million i think he gets the same as sam don't you think he should just chip off seven percent for elon and not that elon needs the money where he's asking but i'm just wondering why elon doesn't get the seven percent and get or you know if they're going to actually put in 50.

did he put in 50 million dollars 50 million is the report right in the non-profit yeah hoffman put in 10. look i said on a previous show that this organizational chart of open ai was ridiculously complicated and they should go clean it up they should open up the books and straighten everyone out and i also said that as part of that they could give sam altman a ceo option grant and they should also give elon some fair compensation for being the seed investor put in the first 50 million dollars and co-founder and what you're seeing is well they're kind of doing that they're opening up the books they're straightening out the corporate structure they're giving sam his option grant but they didn't do anything for elon and i'm not saying this as elon's friend i'm just saying that it's not really fair to basically go fix the original situation you're making it into a for-profit you're giving everyone shares but the guy who puts in the original c capital doesn't get anything that's ridiculous and you know what they're basically saying to elon is if you don't like it just sue us i mean that's basically what they're doing and i said that they should go clean this up but they should make it right with everybody so how do you not make it right with elon i haven't talked to him about this but he reacted on x saying this is really wrong it appeared to be a surprise to him i doubt he knew this was coming so the company apparently made no effort to make things right with him and i think that that is a bit ridiculous if you're going to clean this up if you're going to change the original purpose of this organization to being a standard for-profit company where the ceo who previously said he wasn't going to get any compensation is now getting 10 billion dollars of compensation how do you do that and then not clean it up for the co-founder who put in the first 50 million dollars yeah that doesn't make sense to me and you know when reed was on our pod he he said well elon's rich enough well that that's not a principled excuse i mean does vinod ever act that way does reed ever act that way do they ever say well you know you don't need to do what's fair for me because i'm ready rich that's that's not a principled answer the argument that i heard was that elon was given the opportunity to invest along with reed along with vinod and he he declined to participate in the for-profit investing side that everyone else participated made that argument and i think it's the best argument the company has but let's think about that argument maybe elon was busy that week maybe elon already felt like he had put all the money that he had allocated for something like this into it because he put in a 50 million dollar check whereas re put in 10.

we don't know what elon was thinking at that time maybe there was a crisis at tesla and he was just really busy the point is elon shouldn't have been obligated to put in more money into this venture the fact of the matter is they're refactoring the whole venture elon had an expectation when he put in the 50 million that this would be a non-profit and stay a non-profit and they're changing that and if they change it they have to make things right with him it doesn't really matter whether he had a subsequent opportunity to invest he wasn't obligated to to make that investment what he had an expectation of is that his 50 million dollars would be used for a philanthropic purpose and clearly it has not been yeah and in fairness to vinod he bought that incredible beachfront property and donated it to the public trust so we can all surf and have our halloween party there so it's all good thank you vinod for uh giving us that incredible beach i want to talk to you guys about interfaces that came up chamath in your headwinds or your your four pack of reasons that you know open ai when you steal man the bear case could have challenges obviously we're seeing that and it is emerging that meta is working on some ar glasses that are really impressive additionally i've installed ios 18 which is apple intelligence that works on 15 phones and 16 phones 18 is the ios did any of you install the beta of ios 18 yet and use siri it's pretty clear with this new one that you're going to be able to talk to siri as an llm like you do in chat gpt mode which i think means they will not make themselves dependent on chat gpt and they will siphon off half the searches that would have gone to chat gpt so i see that as a serious series not very good jackel and you know this because when you were driving me to the airport yesterday we tested it and didn't work yes you tried you try he tried to he tries to execute this joke where he's like hey siri send chamath palihapitiya a message and it was a very off-color message i'm not going to say what it is so it's a spicy joke and then it's like okay great sending linda blah blah blah he's like no stop stop stop stop i was like no don't send that joke to her it hallucinates and almost sends it to some other you know some woman in his contact it would have been really damaging it's not very good jason it's not very good well but what i will say is there are features of it where if you squint a little bit you will see that siri is going to be conversational so when i was talking to it with music and you know you can have a conversation with it and do math like you can do with the chat gpt version and you have microsoft doing that with their co-pilot and now met is doing it at the top of each one so everybody's going to try to intercept the queries and the voice interface so chat gpt4 is now up against meta siri apple and microsoft for for that interface it's going to be challenging but let's talk about these meta glasses here meta showed off the ar glasses that nick will pull up right now these aren't goggles goggles look like ski goggles that's what apple is doing with their vision pro or when you see the meta quest you know how those work those are vr with cameras that will create a version of the world these are actual chunky sunglasses like the ones i was wearing earlier when i was doing the bit so these let you operate in the real world and are supposedly extremely expensive they made a thousand prototypes they were letting a bunch of influencers and folks like um gary vanderchuk uh use them and they're not ready for prime time but the way they work freeberg is there's a wristband that will track your fingers and your wrist movement so you could be in a conversation like we are here on the pod and below the desk you could be you know moving your arm and hand around to be doing replies to i don't know incoming messages or whatever it is what do you think of this ar vision of the world and meta making this progress well i think it ties in a lot to the the ai discussion because i think we're really witnessing this big shift from and this big transition in computing probably the biggest transition since mobile you know we moved from mainframes to desktop computers everyone had kind of this computer on their desktop but used a mouse and a keyboard to control it to mobile where you had a keyboard and clicking and touching on the screen to do things on it and now to what i would call this kind of ambient computing method and you know i think the big difference is control and response in directed computing you're kind of telling the computer what to do you're controlling it you're using your mouse or your keyboard to to go to this website so you type in a website address then you click on the thing that you want to click on and you kind of keep doing a series of work to get the computer to go access the information that you ultimately want to achieve your objective but with ambient computing you can more kind of cleanly state your objective without this kind of directive process you can say hey i i want to say i want to have dinner in new york next thursday at the at a michelin star restaurant at 5 30.

book me something and it's done and i think that there are kind of five core things that are needed for this to work um both in control and response it's voice control gesture control and eye control are kind of the control pieces that replace you know mice and clicking and touching and keyboards and then response is audio and kind of integrated visual which is the idea of the goggles voice control works have you guys used the open ai voice control system lately i mean it is really incredible i had my earphones in and i was like doing this exercise i was trying to learn something so i told open ai to start quizzing me on this thing and i just did a 30 minute walk and while i was walking it was asking me quiz questions and i would answer it and tell me i was right or wrong it was really this incredible dialogue experience so i think the voice controls there i don't know if you guys have used apple vision pro but gesture control is here today you can do single finger movements with apple vision pro it triggers actions and eye control is incredible you look at the letters you want to have kind of spelled out or you look at the thing you want to activate and it does it so all of the control systems for this ambient computing are there and then the ai enables this kind of audio response where it speaks to you and the big breakthrough that's needed that i don't think we're quite there yet but maybe zuck is highlighting that we're almost there and apple vision pro feels like it's almost there except it's big and bulky and expensive is integrated visual where the ambient visual interface is always there and you can kind of engage with it so there's this big change i don't think that mobile handsets are going to be around in 10 years i don't think we're going to have this like phone in our pocket that we're like pressing buttons on and touching and telling it where on the browser to go to the browser interface is going to go away i think so much of how computing is done how much how we integrate with data in the world and how the computer ultimately fetches that data and does stuff with it for us is going to completely change to this ambient model so i'm um i'm pretty excited about this evolution but i think that what we're seeing with zuck what we saw with apple vision pro and all of the open ai demos they all kind of converge on this very incredible shift in computing that will kind of become this ambient system that exists everywhere all the time and i know folks have kind of mentioned this in the past but i think we're really seeing it kind of all come together now with these five key things jamaath any thoughts on facebook's progress with ar and how that might impact computing and interfaces when paired with language models i think david's right that there's something that's going to be totally new and unexpected so i agree with that part of what freebrook says i am still not sure that glasses are the perfect form factor to be ubiquitous when you look at a phone a phone makes complete sense for literally everybody right man woman old young every race every country of the world it's such a ubiquitously obvious form factor but the thing is like that initial form factor was so different than what it replaced even if you looked at like flip phones versus that first generation iphone so i i do think freebrook you're right that there's like this new way of interacting that is ready to explode onto the scene and i think that these guys have done a really good job with these glasses i mean like i give them a lot of credit for sticking with it and iterating through it and getting it to this place it looks meaningful better than the vision pro to be totally honest but i'm still not convinced that we've explored the best of our creativity in terms of the devices that we want to use with these ai models you need some visual interface i mean the question is where is the visual interface is it in the isn't in the wall but do i mean if well when you're asking like i want to watch chamath on rogan like i don't just want to hear i want to see like when i want to visualize stuff i want to visualize it i want to look at the food i'm buying online i want to look at pictures of the restaurant i'm going to go to but how much of that time when you say those things are you not near some screen that you can just project and broadcast that i mean right maybe that's the model is if the use case is i'm walking in the park and i need to watch tv at the same time i don't think that's a real use i i think you're on this one wrong chamath because i saw this revolution in japan maybe 20 years ago they got obsessed with augmented reality there were a ton of startups right as they started getting to the mobile phones and the use cases were really very compelling and we're starting to see them now in education and when you're at dinner with a bunch of friends how often does picking up your phone and you know looking at a message disturb the flow well people will have glasses on they'll be going for walks they'll be driving they'll be at a dinner party they'll be with their kids and you'll have something on like focus mode you know whatever the equivalent is an apple and a message will come in from your spouse or from your child but you won't have to take your phone out of your pocket and i think once these things weigh a lot less you're going to have four different ways to interact with your computer in your pocket your phone your watch your airpods whatever you have in your ears and the glasses and i bet you glasses are going to take like a third of the tasks you do i mean what is the point of taking out your phone and watching the uber come to you but seeing that little strip that tells you the uber is 20 minutes away 15 minutes away or what the gate number is i don't have that anxiety well i don't know if it's anxiety but i just think it's ease of use 15 minutes 10 minutes that's that's the definition i think it adds up i think it taking your phone out of your pocket 50 times a day those are all useless notifications the whole thing is to train yourself to realize that it'll come when it comes okay sac do you have any thoughts on this uh impressive demo or you know the demo that people who've seen have said is pretty pretty darn compelling i think it it does look pretty impressive i mean you can wear these meta orion glasses around and look like a human i mean you might look like eugene levy but you'll still look like a semi-normal person whereas you can't wear the apple vision pro i mean you can't wear that around what they don't look good you don't like them nick can you please find a picture of eugene levy i mean it seems like a major advancement certainly compared to apple vision pro i mean you don't hear really impressive you don't hear about the apple vision pros anymore at all i mean those things came and went it seems to me that who's that meta meta is executing extremely well i mean you had the very successful cost-cutting which wall street liked zuck published that letter which i give him credit for regretting the censorship that meta did which was at the best of the deep state yeah they made huge advancements in ai i don't think they were initially on the cutting edge of that but they've caught up and now they're leading their firing on all cylinders yeah with with llama 3.2 and now it seems to me that they're ahead on augmented reality ever since uh zuck grew out the hair yeah gold chain don't ever don't ever cut the hair it's like samson i mean yeah it's like samson based based zuck is the best zuck he does i mean by the way i want to be clear i i think these glasses are are going to be successful my only comment is that i think that when you look back 25 and 30 years from now and say that was the killer ai device i don't think it's going to look like something we know today that's my only point and maybe it's going to be this thing that sam altman and johnny ive are baking up that's supposed to be this ai infused iphone killer maybe it's that thing i doubt that will be a pair of glasses or a phone or a pin if you think about like so so take the constraints on i don't need a keyboard because i'm not gonna be typing stuff i don't need a normal browser interface you could see a device come out that's almost like smaller than the palm of your hand that gives you enough of the visuals and all it is is a screen with maybe two buttons on the side and it's all audio driven you put a headset in and you're basically just talking or using gesture or looking at it to kind of describe where you want things to go and it can create an entirely new computing interface because ai does all of these incredible things with predictive text with gesture control with eye control and with audio control and then it can just give you what you want on a screen and all you're getting is a simple interface so chamath you may be right it might be a big watch or a handheld thing that's much smaller than an iphone and just all it is is a screen with nothing i really resonate when you talk about voice only because i think it's like it you i think there's like a part of like social decorum that all of these goggles and glasses violate and i think we're going to have to decide as a society whether that's going to be okay and then i think like are when you like go trekking in nepal are you going to encounter somebody wearing ar glasses i think the odds are pretty low but you do see people today with a phone so what do they replace it with and i think voice as a modality is is i think it's more credible that that could be used by eight billion people i think social fabric's more affected by people staring at their phones all the time you sit on a bus you sit at a restaurant you go to dinner with someone and they're staring at their phone like you know spouses friends we all deal with it where you feel like you're not getting attention from the person that you're interfacing with in the real world because they're so connected to the phone if we can disconnect the phone but still take away this kind of addictive feedback loop system but still give you this computing ability in a more ambient way that allows you to remain engaged in the physical world i think everyone could say it hurts your feeling when he's playing chess and not paying attention yeah i'll be playing chess on my ar glasses while pretending to listen to you you idiot oh fine he's buying him he got he got version one but what one point i want to just hit on is that the reason why these glasses have a chance of working is because of ai i mean facebook initially made that's exactly my point that's exactly my point facebook or meta made these huge investments before ai was a thing and in a way i think they've kind of gotten lucky because what ai gives you is uh voice and audio so you can talk to the glasses or whatever the wearable is it can talk to you that's the perfect natural language and computer vision allows it to understand the world around you so whatever this device is it can be a true yeah personal digital assistant in the real world and that's the opportunity if you guys play with apple vision pro have any of you actually like used it to any extent if you actually play with it i used it for a day or a night when we were playing poker and i've never used it again right which i get but i do think that it has these tools in it similar to like the original macintosh had these incredible graphics editors like mac paint and all these things that like people didn't like get addicted to at the time but they became this like tool that completely revolutionized everything in computing later and fonts and so on but like this i think has these tools apple vision pro with gesture control and the keyboard and the eye control those aspects of that device highlight where this could all go which is this these systems can kind of be driven without keyboards without typing without like you know moving your finger around without clicking i think that's the i think that's the key observation i really agree with what you just said it's this it's this idea that you're just you're liberated from the hunting and pecking the controlling it's you don't need to control the computer anymore the computer now knows what you want and then the computer can just go and do the work well this is respond yeah now this is the behavior change that i don't think we're fully giving enough credit to so today part of what jason talked about what i called anxiety is because of the information architecture of these apps that is totally broken and the reason why it's broken is when you tell an ai agent get me the cheapest car right now to go to xyz place it will go and look at lyft and uber and whatever it'll provision the car and then it'll just tell you when it's coming and it will break this cycle that people have of having to check these apps for what is useless filler information and when you strip a lot of that notification traffic away i think you'll find that people start looking at each other in the face more often and i think that that's a net positive so we'll we'll meta sell hundreds of millions of these things i suspect probably but all i'm saying is if you look backwards 30 years from now what is the device that sells in the billions it's probably not a form factor that we understand today i just want to point out like the the form factor you're seeing now is going to get greatly reduced these were um some of the early apple um i don't know if you guys remember these but frog design made these crazy tablets in the 80s that were the eventual inspiration for the ipad you know 25 years later i guess exactly uh and so that's the journey we're on here right now this clunky and these are not functional prototypes dude the apple newton is like exactly people forget about and then it turns out hey you throw away the stylus and you got an iphone right and then and everything gets a million x better the other subtle thing that's happening which i don't think we should sleep on is that the air pods are probably going to become much more socially acceptable to wear on a 24 by 7 basis because of this feature that allows it to become a useful hearing aid and i think as it starts being worn in more and more social environments and as the form factor of that shrinks that's when i really do think we're going to find some very novel use case which is you know very unobtrusive it kind of blends into your own physical makeup as a person without it really sticking out i think that's when you'll have a really killer feature but i think that the the air pods as hearing aids will also add a lot so meta's doing a lot apple's doing a lot but i don't think we've yet seen the super killer hardware device yet and there was an interesting waypoint microsoft had the first tablets here's the the microsoft tablet for those of you watching that came you know i don't know this was the late 90s or early 2000s friedberg if you remember it these like incredibly bulky tablets that bill gates was bringing to all the events 99 2000 yeah that era so you get a lot of false starts they're spending i think close to 20 billion dollars a year on this arv or so anyway we're definitely on this path to ambient computing i don't think i don't think this whole like hey you got to control a computer thing is anything my kids are going to be doing in 20 years this is uh this is the convergence of like three or four really interesting technological waves all right just uh dovetailing with tech jobs and the static team size there is a report of a blue collar boom the tool belt generation is what gen z is being referred to as a report in the wall street journal reports say tech jobs have dried up we all we're all seeing that and according to indeed developer jobs down within 30 since february of 2020 pre-covered of course if you look at layoffs.fyi you'll see all the you know tech jobs that have been eliminated since 2022 over a half million of them a bunch of things at play here and the wall street journal notes that entry-level tech workers are getting hit the hardest especially all these recent college graduates and if you look at a historical college enrollment let's pull up that chart nick you can see here undergraduate graduate and total with the red line we peaked at 21 million people in either graduate school or undergraduate in 2010 and that's come down to 8.6 million at the same time obviously in the last 12 years you've had the population has grown so this is even you know it was a percentage basis would be even more dramatic so what's behind this a poll of a thousand teens this summer found that about half believe a high school degree trade program or two-year degree best meets their career needs and 56 percent said real world on the job experience is more valuable than obtaining a college degree something you've talked about with your own personal experience chamath at waterloo doing apprenticeships essentially your thoughts on generation tool belt such a positive trend i mean there's so many reasons why this is good i'll i'll just list a handful that come to the top of my mind the first and probably the most important is that it breaks this stranglehold that the university education system has on america's kids we have tricked millions and millions of people into getting trillions of dollars in debt on this idea that you're learning something in university that's somehow going to give you economic stability and ideally freedom and it has turned out for so many people to not be true it's just so absurd and unfair that that has happened so if you can go and get a trade degree and live a economically productive life where you can get married and have kids and take care of your family and do all the things you want to do that's going to put an enormous amount of pressure on higher ed why does it charge so much what does it give in return that's one thought the second thought which is much more narrow peter thiel has that famous saying where if you have to put the word science behind it it's not really a thing and what we are going to find out is that that was true for a whole bunch of things where people went to school like political science and social science social science but i always thought that computer science would be immune but i think he's going to be right about that too because you can spend two or three hundred thousand dollars getting in debt to get a computer science degree but you're probably better off learning javascript and learning these tools in some kind of a boot camp for far far less and graduating in a position to make money right away so those are just two ideas i think that it allows us to be a better functioning society so i am really supportive of this trend sacks your thoughts on this generation tool belt where we're reading about and you know the sort of combination with static team size that we're seeing in technology companies keeping the number of employees the same or trending down while they grow 30 year over year oh my god i'm like so sick of this this topic of of job loss or job disruption yeah i got in so much trouble last week you asked a question about whether the upper middle class is going to suffer because they're all going to be put out of work by ai and i just kind of brush it off not because i'm advocating for that but just because i don't think it's going to happen this whole thing about job loss is so overdone there's going to be a lot of job disruption but in the case of coders just as an example i think we can say that coders depending on who you talk to are 10 20 30 more productive as a result of these coding assistant tools but we still need coders you can't automate 100 of it and the world needs so many of them the need for software is unlimited we can't hire enough of them at glue by the way shout out if you're looking if you're a coder who is afraid of not being able to get a job apply for one at glue believe me we're hiring i just think that this is so overdone there's going to be a lot of disruption in the knowledge worker space like we talked about the workflow at call centers and just service factories there's going to be a lot of change but at the end of the day i think there's going to be plenty of work for humans to do and some of the work will be more in the blue collar space and i agree with jamoth that this is a good thing i think there's been perhaps an over emphasis on the idea that the only way to get ahead in life is to get uh like a fancy degree from one of these universities and we've seen that many of the universities they're just not that great they're overpriced you end up graduating with a mountain of debt and you get a degree that is you know maybe even far worse than computer science this is completely worthless so if people learn more vocational skills if they skip college because they are have a proclivity to do something that doesn't need that degree i think that's a good thing and that's healthy for the economy friedberg is this like uh just the pendulum swung too much and education got too expensive spending 200k to make 50 000 a year distinctly different than our childhoods or i'm sorry our adolescence when we were able to go to college for 10k a year 20k a year graduate with you know some low tens of thousands in debt if you did take debt and then your entry level job was 50 60 70k coming out of college what are your thoughts here is this a value issue with college well yeah i think the market's definitely correcting itself i think for years as chamat said there was kind of this belief that if you went to college there was regardless of the college there was this outcome where you would make enough money to justify the debt you're taking on and i think folks have woken up to the fact that that's not reality again if there was a free market remember most people go to college with student loans and all student loans are funded by the federal government so the the cost of education has ballooned and the underwriting criteria necessary for this free market to work has been completely destroyed because of the federal spending in the student loan program that there's no disc discrimination between one school or another you could go to trump university or you could go to harvard it doesn't matter you still get a student loan even if at the end of the process you don't have a degree that's valuable and so i think folks are now waking up to this fact and the market is correcting itself which is good i'll also say that i think that there's this premium with generally mass production and industrialization of the human touch and what i mean is if you think about hey you could go to the store and buy a bunch of cheap food off of the store shelves you could buy a bunch of hershey's chocolate bars or you can go to a swiss chocolatier in downtown san francisco pay 20 for a box of handmade chocolates you'll pay that premium for that better product same with clothes there's this big trend in kind of handmade clothes and high-end luxury goods bespoke artisanal artisanal handmade and and similarly i think that there's a premium in human service in the partnership with a human it's not just about blue-collar jobs it's about having a waiter talk to you and serve you if you go to a restaurant instead of having a machine spit out the food to you there's an experience associated with that that you'll pay a premium for there's hundreds and hundreds of micro breweries in the united states that in aggregate outsell budweiser and miller and even modello today and that's because they're handcrafted by local people and there's a there's an artisan craftsmanship yeah so while technology and ai are going to completely reduce the cost of a lot of things and increase the production and productivity of those things one of the complementary consequences of that is that there will be an emerging premium for human service and i think that there will be an absolute burgeoning and blossoming in the salaries and the availability and demand for human service in a lot of walks of life certainly there's all the work at home the electricians and the plumbers and so on but also fitness classes food personal service around tutoring and learning and developing oneself there's going to be an incredible blossoming i think in human service jobs and they don't need to have a degree in poli-sci to be performed i think that there will be a lot of people that'll be very happy in that world how do you see the differentiation the person makes freeberg in doing that job versus the agent or the ai or whatever well these are in-person human jobs so if i want to do a fitness class do i want to stare at the tonal this is what i'm asking you yeah like yeah i think i i think that there's an aspect of um it look it's like your laura piano like you you talk about the story of laura piano where is the vicuna coming from how's it made who's involved in it like yes look you're oh my god look at those who say the white don't stop freeberg i can give you truffle flavoring out of a can but you you love the white truffles you want to go to italy you want the storytelling there's an aspect of it right like yeah and i think that there's an aspect of humanity that we pay a premium that we do and will look etsy crushes i don't know how much stuff you guys buy on etsy i love buying from etsy i love finding handmade stuff on it i buy my underwear for decoration no you don't do you really yes i do yeah handcrafted yeah handmade so i think that there's an aspect of this that um in a lot of walks of life i mean i have so many jokes right i've never used that seat but i'm going to try it now after have you guys taken music lessons lately you know i started my kids do piano lessons and so last year i started ducking in to do a third 45 minute piano lesson with the piano teacher there's just like a great aspect to paying for these services to getting fascinating to bring that up oh here we go you can play the harmonica really i've just like well i've been playing some i want to play some zach bryant songs and he's got a couple songs i like with a harmonica in them so i just got a harmonica my daughter and i have been playing harmonica yeah are you teaching yourself let's hear it let's hear it let's hear it i'll play it next week it could be a bit but i'll write your song next week be a little shy he's a little shy no no i'll do i'll i'll write a song i'll do the uh the trials and tribulations of donald trump and i'll do a little bob dylan send-up song for you but listen to that interview with um with bob dylan i don't know when it was recently about how oh and then writing the lyrics that clip oh yeah that's amazing that bradley clip about magic yeah well you know some of those songs i don't know how i wrote them they just came out in the best but the best part is what he says what he says that anymore he's like no but i did it once no but i did it what i mean what an incredible that means something yeah eclipses are both that's really grounding it's really grounding to understand too soon there is no chance of dying yeah that's an incredible clip all right guys want to wrap or you want to keep talking about more stuff we were at 90 minutes here let me just say tell you something i think there's going to be a big war i think by the time the show airs israel's incursion into lebanon is going to get bigger it's going to escalate and by next week we could be in a full-blown multinational war in the middle east and if i am you know a betting man i would bet that the odds are you know more than 30 40 that this happens before the election that this this conflict in the middle east escalates thank you for bringing this up i am not asking anybody to go listen to what i my interview with rogan but i will say this part of why i was so excited to go and talk to him in a long form format was this issue of war is i think the existential crisis of this election and of this moment and i really do agree with you freeberg there is a non-trivially high probability the highest it's ever been that we are just bumbling and sleepwalking into a really bad situation we can't walk back from i really hope you're wrong and here's the here's the situation i really hope you're wrong if israel incurs further in into lebanon going after hezbollah and iran ends up getting involved in a more active way does russia start to provide supplies to iran like we are supplying to ukraine today does this sort of bring everyone to a line just to give you a sense you know of the scale of what israel could then respond with iran has 600 000 active duty military another 350 000 in reserve they have dozens of ships they have 19 submarines they have a 600 kilometer range missile system israel has 90 000 sorry 170 000 active duty and half a million reserve personnel 15 warships five submarines potentially up to 400 nuclear weapons including a very wide range of tactical sub one kiloton nuclear weapons small small payload you could see that if israel starts to feel incurred upon further they could respond in a more aggressive way with what is you know by far and away you know the the most significantly stocked arsenal and military force in the middle east again we've talked about what are these other countries going to do what is jordan going to do in this situation how is uh how are the saudis going to respond what is russia going to do well the russia ukraine thing meanwhile still goes on and we saw in our group chat one of our friends posted but russia basically said any more attacks on our land you know we reserve all rights including nuclear response that is insane well you know so just to give you a sense um it's insane how are we here yeah so the the nuclear bombs that were set off during world war ii i just want to show you how crazy this this is do you see that image on the left that all the way over on the left that's a bunker buster you guys remember those from afghanistan and and the damage that those bunker buster bombs caused hiroshima is a 15 kiloton nuclear and you can see the size of it there on the left that's a zoom in of the image on the right and the image on the right starts to show the biggest ever tested was tsar bomba by the soviets this was a 50 megaton bomb it it caused shock waves that went around the earth three times they could be felt as seismic shock waves around the earth three times from this one detonation today there are a lot of 0.1 to one kiloton nuclear bombs that are kind of considered these tactical nuclear weapons that kind of fall closer to between the bunker buster and the hiroshima and that's really where a lot of folks get concerned that if israel or russia or others get cornered in a way and there's no other tactical response that that is what then gets pulled out now if someone detonates a 0.1 or one kiloton nuclear bomb which is going to look like a mega bunker buster what is the other side and what's the world going to respond with that's how on the brink we are and there's 12 000 nuclear weapons with an average payload of 100 kilotons around the world the u.s has a large stockpile russia has the largest many of these are hair trigger alert systems china has the third largest and then israel and india and and so on it is a very concerning situation because if anyone does get pushed to the brink that has a nuclear weapon and they pull out a tactical nuke does that mean the game is on and that's why i'm so nervous about where this all leads to if we can't decelerate it's very scary because you can very quickly see this thing exciting the most objectively scared i've ever been and i think that people grossly underestimate how quickly this could just spin up out of control and right now not enough of us are spending the time to really understand why that's possible and then also try to figure out what's the offering and i think it's i think it's just incredibly important that people take the time to figure out that this is a non-zero probability and this is probably for many of us the first time in our lifetime where you could really say that well i think freeberg's right that we're at the beginning stages of i think what will soon be referred to as the third lebanon war the first one was in 1982 uh israel went into lebanon and occupied it until 2000 then it went back in 2006 left after about a month and now we're in the third war it's hard to say exactly how much this will escalate the idf is exhausted after the war in gaza there's significant opposition within israel and within the armed forces to a big ground invasion of lebanon so far most of the fighting has been israel using its air superiority overwhelming firepower against southern lebanon and i i think that if israel makes a ground invasion they're giving hezbollah the war that hezbollah wants i mean hezbollah would love for this to turn into a guerrilla war in southern lebanon so i think there's still some question about whether netanyahu will do that or not at the same time it's also possible that hezbollah will attack northern israel what nazrallah has threatened to invade the galilee in response to what israel is doing so there's multiple ways this could escalate and if hezbollah and israel are in a full-scale war with ground forces it could be very easy for iran to get pulled into it on hezbollah's side and if that happens i think it's just inevitable that the united states will be pulled into this war so yeah look i think we are in russia and then we have been drifting into a regional war in the middle east that you know ideally would not pull in the u.s i think the u.s should try to avoid being pulled in but i think very likely will be pulled in if it escalates and then meanwhile in terms of the war in ukraine i mean i've been warning about this for two and a half years how dangerous the situation was and that's why we should have availed ourselves of every diplomatic opportunity to make peace and we now know because there's been such universal reporting that in istanbul in the first month of the ukraine war there was an opportunity to make a deal with russia where ukraine would get all this territory back it's just that ukraine would have to agree not to be part of nato would have to agree to be neutral and not part of the western military bloc that was so threatening to russia the biden administration refused to make that deal they sent in boris johnson to scuttle it they threw cold water on it they blocked it they told zelinski we'll give you all the weapons you need to fight russia zelinski believed in that it has not worked out that way ukraine is getting destroyed it's very hard to get honest reporting on this from the mainstream media but the sources i've read suggest that the ukrainians are losing about 30 000 troops per month and that's just kia i don't even think that's wounded that on a bad day they're suffering 1200 casualties it's more than even during that failed counter-offensive last summer that ukraine had during that time they were losing about 20 000 troops a month so the level of carnage is escalating russia has has more of everything more weapons more firepower air superiority and they are destroying ukraine and it's very clear i think that ukraine within it could be in the next month it could be the next two months it could be the next six months i think they're eventually going to collapse they're getting close to being combat incapable and in a way that poses the biggest danger because the closer ukraine gets to collapse the more the west is going to be tempted to intervene directly in order to save them and that is what zelinski was here in the us doing over the past week is arguing for direct involvement by america in the ukraine war to save him how did he propose this he said we want to be directly admitted to nato immediately that was his request and he called this the the victory plan so in other words his plan for victory is to get america involved in the war and fighting it for him but that is the only chance ukraine has and it is possible that the biden harris administration will agree to do that or at least agree to some significant escalation so far i think biden to his credit has resisted another zelinski demand which is the ability to use america's long-range missiles and british long-range missiles the storm shadows against russian cities that is what zelinski is asking for if zelinski wants a major escalation of the war because that is the only thing that's going to save him save his side and maybe even his neck personally and so we're one mistake away from the very dangerous situation that chamath and freeberg have described if a president biden who is basically senile or a president harris agree to one of these zelinski requests we could very easily find ourselves in a direct yeah war with the russians the waltz into world war three is what it should be called and the reason why this could happen is because we don't have a fair media that's fairly reported anything about this war i mean trump is on the campaign trail making i think very valid points about this war that the ukrainian cause is doomed and that we should be seeking a peace deal and a settlement before this can spiral into world war three that is fundamentally correct but the media portrays that as being pro-russian and pro-putin and if you say that you want peace you are basically on the take from putin and russia that is what the media has told the american public for three years the definition of liberalism has always been being completely against war of any kind and being completely in favor of free speech of all kinds that's what being a liberal means we've lost the script and i think that people need to understand that this is the one issue where if we get it wrong literally nothing else matters and we are sleepwalking and tiptoeing into a potential massive world war jeffrey sacks said it perfectly you don't get a second chance in the nuclear age you don't all it takes is one big mistake you do not get a second chance and for me i have become a single issue voter this is the only issue to me that matters we can sort everything else out we can figure it all out we can we can find common ground and reason should taxes go up should taxes go down let's figure it out should regulations go up should regulations go down we can figure it out but we are fighting a potential nuclear threat on three fronts how have we allowed this to happen russia iran china you cannot underestimate that when you add these kinds of risks on top of each other something can happen here and i don't think people really know they're too far away from it they're too many generations removed from it war is something you heard maybe your grandparents talk about now and you just thought okay whatever i lived it it's not good tomoth you're right i mean during the cuban missile crisis all of america was huddled around their tv sets worried about what would happen there is no similar concern in this day and age about the escalatory wars that are happening there's a little bit of concern i think about what's happening in the middle east there's virtually no concern about what's happening in ukraine because people think it can't affect them but it can and one of the reasons it could affect them is because we do not have a fair debate about that issue in the u.s media the media has simply caricature and any opposition to the war as being pro-putin so i would say that when every pundit and every person in a position to do something about it says you have nothing to worry about you probably have something to worry about and so when everybody is trying to tell you everybody that this is not a risk it's probably a bigger risk than we think yeah they're protesting too much how can you say it's not a risk me think thou doth protest it all all right all right love you boys we'll let your winners ride rain man david sacks and it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it love you guys i'm going all in what what your winners ride what what your winners ride besties are gone that's my uh dog taking a notice in your driveway you should all just get a room and just have a one big huge orgy because they're all just useless it's like this like sexual tension but they just need to release somehow we need to get merch is our back i'm doing all in i'm doing all in Thank you.