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We're here to help you get started. We're here to help you get started. We're here to help you get started. It's expected that the Fed will raise rates throughout 2022 and maybe 2023, and then cut them again in the near future, possibly before the elections. Isn't the following strategy an easy win?

Buy when rates get high, and sell when back to zero. I know these cycles aren't supposed to be as short as they are now, but I don't see much attention on this strategy and segment. The bond market is certainly governed more by math than the stock market is. The bond market is easier in terms of expected returns.

When it comes to the stock market, you could nail the forecast on dividends or earnings or sales or whatever other fundamental you want to pick, but it's impossible to predict investor emotions, and investor emotions are what help with determining valuations. So in the 1970s, earnings grew 10% per year.

It was a terrible market for the stock market. In the 1980s, earnings grew like 5% a year, less than 5%, and the stock market did wonderfully. So you could predict these things and not know what people are willing to pay for them because of a bunch of other factors.

But long-term returns for bonds are fairly easy to predict. So John, let's do a chart on. This is starting 10-year yields for the 10-year Treasury and subsequent 10-year returns. So you can see these two lines. They're pretty darn close, right? So the correlation between them is like 0.95, between starting yield and future 10-year returns.

Now, this might seem blatantly obvious to certain people, but to other people, it's not because, well, what about inflation and interest rates moving and all these things? And the best determiner for long-term bond returns over 5, 7, 10, 12 years is just your starting yield. It's pretty easy to predict.

So I like the idea here by this person, trying to think of bonds as maybe easier than timing the stocks. But if you're going to do it, you probably have to have some rules, and this person has some rules. So they say when they get high, and I'm assuming, let's call high 4% or 5%, and they say back down to zero.

That range sounds pretty good right now. The problem is, what if your rules are entirely off? I looked at the distribution of 10-year yields going back to 1945. John, let's see it. This just shows the distribution of yields. So yields have only been 2% or lower 7% of the time.

They've been lower than 4% roughly 1/3 of the time. So the range that we're in right now for yields is kind of unprecedented in the last, I don't know, 80 years or so. Now, it could be, but what if the ceiling is much higher than we think right now?

What if you say my ceiling is 4.5% and I'm going to buy every time it gets there, and I go to 7? Or what if you say my floor is zero, but the floor, for a while at least, is two instead of zero? What if the Fed doesn't go quite as low as they've been?

So I think that's the problem. And also, while the long-term is relatively easy to predict in bonds, John, show the one-year chart here. Chart on for the one-year. This just shows the starting yield with one-year return. You can see this is all over the map. The yield on Treasuries over any one-year period doesn't really tell you anything, because interest rates move and inflation and investor preferences and all these things.

So it's tough. I mean, the good news is, bond returns typically aren't as volatile as the stock market. So a big misstep probably isn't going to cost you as much. But do you really want to add another element of potential volatility to your portfolio? To the part of your portfolio that's supposed to be more stable and less volatile?

I do think investors are probably going to have to be a little more thoughtful about fixed income exposure going forward. And you could say, right now, the way the yield curve is positioned, I want to be in short-term bonds, because they're giving higher yields than long-term bonds. Or I want to take a little more duration, because I think there's going to be a recession, and yields are going to fall, and I'm going to get some -- so a lot of it depends on what you want to get.

Do you want stability and safety in your portfolio? So maybe on the short end of the bond? Or are you looking for a total return and getting some price action where you want to make some moves, where you want to use macro variables? I just think if you want to be more tactical in bonds, it seems easier, but it's easier to be tactical long-term in bonds than it is short-term.

And so timing the bond market is probably easier than timing the stock market, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's a slam dunk, because there's so many other variables involved. Yeah, no, that makes sense. I mean, with bonds, too, it seems like so many people roll into them big-time when, you know, it's the bottom or near the bottom, right?

Historically, it seems like that's what often happens. People look to hedge when it's kind of, I guess, too late. I think Josh was recently talking about this. Well, a lot of it is, yeah, the asset allocation changes. Just changing asset allocation a ton of times, just -- it opens up the potential for an unnecessary or avoidable mistake.

And for a lot of people, I think it's probably easier, like you said, Duncan, just setting it and forgetting it and not trying to be too cute with this stuff, because how much are you really going to add to your returns if you're constantly jumping in and out of the bond market and going back to cash?

One wrong move could effectively take out any right moves you make, too. So all right, let's do another one. Next question. Okay. And that question was from Georgie. So up next, we have the following. My name is Max, and I'm a new financial advisor. My dad decided to throw me a bone to help me get started by entrusting me with around $400,000 of equities and cash to manage.

My dad is 76 and has been retired for over two decades, not to brag. He as well often doesn't look at these investment accounts all that often. His money is primarily in mutual funds, ETFs, and cash. Being new to the business, I'm struggling to understand what to do with the money he wishes to transfer over to me.

What is your advice for how to manage a large sum of money when you're first starting out in the industry? All right. So if Max wants to be the next Bernie Madoff, he can start siphoning this money from his dad because the dad's not paying attention. No, I mean, this seems like the perfect scenario to get some practice as a newbill financial advisor that wants to gain some experience.

So it sounds like the father is in a good financial position, so he probably can't screw things up too badly. I'm sure that's why he's giving you this. But my whole line of thinking is you can't possibly hope to invest money on someone else's behalf without understanding what their goals are and what they want to do with the money.

So this is the perfect time to get some reps in as a young financial advisor and have a conversation with your father. So what do you plan to do with this money in the future? What's your time horizon? What's your risk profile? What are your return expectations? How much are you willing to lose to get those return expectations?

How do you invest the rest of your money? Is this bucket going to be a complement to the rest of your money? Is it going to be invested a similar way? What are the tax issues, potentially, if this is taxable money? When do you plan on spending this money?

Is this for us? Is this for the next generation? Is this free to spend soon? So I think if you're a young person, you definitely need some reps, and this is the perfect time to do it. Sit down and have a conversation. It's not always easy to mix financial advice with family, unfortunately, but it sounds like this is a pretty good chance to get your feet wet, and then really sit down and have a conversation with your father about, well, what are you doing this for?

What's the point of it? And if he has an investment plan elsewhere, maybe you can incorporate it into that. But that's what you need to do, is have a question. It's not like, well, I think you should invest in municipal bonds, I think you should invest in growth stocks, I think you should put your money in small cap value.

That's not the idea here. The idea is, what are your goals, what's your risk profile, what's your time horizon, and then we can build a plan for you. And that's the conversation you need to have with your father, just like you're going to have with clients in the future.

Yeah, and I like that he's asking us though, right? He's asking you for your advice, rather than being like a know-it-all, and thinking that as a noob financial advisor, he knows everything. So that's good that he's surveying. Yeah, it's okay to say, I don't know everything, but you do have to know what the client is.

I think the important thing here is that the client's circumstances and your father's circumstances are more important than what's going on in the market, probably. That's the starting point. Would you want to manage $400,000 for your family members? That doesn't sound fun to me. Mixing financial advice and family is difficult, because if things go well, you're probably not going to get much credit.

If things go poorly, you're going to get the blame. So it's a good time to have a conversation about it, but just setting expectations is probably not a bad thing either. Right, yeah. All right, let's do another one. Okay, up next we have a question from Kim. I'm sure many of your listeners' ears perked up when Michael said he was no longer keeping cash at Marcus, but instead had moved to New York State Munis.

Can you expand on this as a choice in the current environment? I've looked at Muni funds, state-specific funds, and state-specific ETFs that use leverage. Any thoughts on the differing formats? Duncan, last week I think you said we're getting more bond questions, and it is true. We're getting so many questions about bonds these days.

I think it's just because everything's a little more interesting there and yields are finally higher. So I'm not going to answer on his behalf. Let's bring him in and ask him himself. Michael Batnick. Here I am. He's here with us today. The Batman. I felt like Eric Andre in the "Let Me In" meme, or gif, you know?

I know. Let's get on the action. The people want to know, why did you change from Marcus to Muni funds? What are you going for here? Before we get to that, I just have to compliment Duncan's hat. Show me the quack on that Daffy thing. Well, there's no like audible quack, but you know, it has the bill.

It should make a sound when you open that thing up. That is pretty fabulous. They used to. Yeah. That's the quacker. Did you see any fans in Disney? Anybody stop you with that shirt on? No one has. No one stopped me. I mean, you're pretty recognizable. Yeah. I mean, there's dozens of people who know me.

All right. So what's the question? Why did I, why am I investing in municipal bonds? So you went, it sounds like you went from, I think you mentioned Sentinel Spirits. You took your money out of an online savings account and moved into Muni's. What was the reasoning there? Yeah.

So before I answer that, and I'm not just filibustering, you said we're getting a lot of questions about bonds these days. You know, questions we're not getting about the triple Q's until yesterday. Did you see that email coming in Ben yesterday? I didn't see it. No. 2021 was all about the TQs and somebody emailed us yesterday.

I know you guys haven't spoken about it lately. We'll get to that on Animal Spirits. All right. So here's the deal. Marcus is now offering 2.15% on cash, which is not bad. It's a hell of a lot better than zero or 25 basis points or whatever it was. So this cash that I have allocated to New York State Muni bonds is not cash that I have earmarked for any particular purchase.

If it was, I would not be holding municipal bonds because guess what? They're not risk-free. Matter of fact. So this is more of like an intermediate term than a short term, I guess. I have no. Yeah. I mean, I have no stated use for the cash, not to brag.

It's just sort of sitting there for a rainy day. So this particular fund is 11% off its highs. I bought the dip, so I'm only down 1%, but whatever. That's not the point. The point is that this is now the stated yield on the thing is over 3%. I'm in New York, high-tax state.

And what do you pay, 80% taxes there? Taxes. It's worth it because I get to buy $15 burritables from Chipotle. So on a tax equivalent basis, I'm getting over 5%, which feels pretty okay. Pretty compelling. That is pretty good. I looked at the average yield for a handful of short-term Muni bond funds.

You can look at them anywhere, Vanguard or iShares or Schwab or wherever. In the range for yield to maturity, the average yield to maturity is like 3% to 3.5%. So to your point, we're talking at least a 4% to 5%, maybe 6% tax equivalent yield if you're not paying federal and state taxes on there, if you do the state-specific fund.

So that's not bad. Let me say one more thing. Somebody asked about losing leverage. If you are confident in your assertion that you think interest rates are topping and you want to make a tactical call on interest rates, which is what I'm doing with this particular slug of money, then sure, why not use leverage?

However, I'm not looking to make a bond trade here, right? So I'm not looking to have like a 24% drawdown in Munis, which has it ever happened? Maybe it has. But either way, if it does happen, no, the deepest drawdown that I'm looking at was 2020, which was- And I suppose the leverage would come with a closed-end Muni fund.

There's no leverage in any ETF probably. You'd probably be investing in a closed-end fund that uses leverage and maybe is trading at a discount. Yes. And then you're trying to play the bond market. I'm not looking to do that. You could also do that if you really are like trying to make a bet on duration or interest rates, which I'm not doing.

You could do ZROZ, which is down a cool 50%. Holy gazole. So anyway, 5% plus tax equivalent. Now you've got my attention. Getting back to our stuff about timing the bond market from the first question, I think the last couple of years should show anyone that predicting interest rates is really tough to do.

The Fed can't do it. I think anyone trying to say either rates are going to go to 7% from here or they're going to go back down to 2%, I mean, you could place a probability on that, but I wouldn't want to bet my emergency savings on that either way.

So I think, yeah, using leverage for emergency savings. There's a big difference between cash and emergency savings. This is cash. It's not emergency savings. Right. Okay. Do another one. And when you're, just to clarify, when it's New York state for you as a New York resident, your tax advantage from a state and federal standpoint for munis?

Okay. That's right. I don't take tax advice from anyone wearing a daffy duck hat. I'm sorry. But... Well, I would never give it. I would never give it. Okay. Up next, we have a question from Brennan. I'm new to the market, so this is my first bear market experience.

This could be way off, but I have a theory. It seems like the first half of the year sentiment was so pessimistic that it brought us to a low 4. It was negative news after negative news, causing the market to say, okay, we get it. Everything is red. Now we see upticks from positive earnings and buy-in, only to be followed by more unforeseen negative catalysts the following week, dropping to lower lows, thus confirming our original negative sentiment bringing us further down.

I'm curious if there's any historical evidence that backs up this theory that uncertainty can bring us lower lows more quickly than actual negative news. I mean... This is a good one. Yeah. So... 100%. John, throw up our first chart here of the worst years in the stock market. So this just shows the worst years ever for the U.S.

stock market, going back to 1928. And I put a reason next to every one of them. You can see there was the Great Depression, Great Financial Crisis, '73, '74 bear market, dot-com crash, all these bad... World War II, all this stuff. I think usually when you have a nasty, prolonged bear market, it's for a reason.

Obviously, uncertainty comes into play, but I think the only crash, maybe we didn't have a nasty economic crash, crisis attached to it, was 1987. And that seemed to come back really quick. Even then, the stock market was going bananas and rates were rising pretty quickly. But I think the uncertainties you're dealing with are always, for every bear market, how much longer will this last?

How long will it take to break even? How much worse will this get before it gets better? Ben, can I nitpick? Can I nitpick? Can I get that chart back on, John, please? What? You can't give the reason for a bear market as bear market. 1974. Okay. There's no name for that one, though.

Yes, there is. What's the name? The oil embargo, stagflation, inflation. You can't say the reason why stocks had a bear market, it's because of the bear market. Come on. So, 2008 is the Great Financial Crisis, 2000 to 2002 is the dot-com bust. What's '73, '74? There's no good name for it.

I just told you. What? The oil embargo. The inflation. Yeah. What's this one going to be called? What do you mean? What do you mean? I'm throwing out for this one right now, it's the Great Inflation. What do you think about that? 2022, the Great Inflation. The Great Inflation?

Yeah, it's a good one. Put great in front of it and people are going to remember that. Okay. So, here's the thing. No one knows the answers to those questions. Oh, wait, wait, wait. I have another one. I have another one. Inflategate? But, I mean, don't you think that, yes, uncertainty is part of it, but most of the time, especially this year, I think there's been a lot of bad news and the stock market has taken that into account.

So, it's not just the fact that things are uncertain and no one knows what's going to happen. It's that there's bad news that's hitting the stock market. So, okay. So, to get back to this question, if there is any historical evidence that backs up the theory that uncertainty can bring us lower lows quicker than actual negative news, absolutely.

This is the opposite of sell the news, buy the rumor. Buy the rumor, sell the news. So, that would be sell the news type of thing or buy the news. The market hates uncertainty. So, once you get bad news, usually, or at least when the market is down so much, the market has anticipated that.

So, the market doesn't always bottom on bad news. The market usually bottoms before it, in anticipation of. I think you could say the uncertainty now is the biggest economic data point everyone's following is the inflation data, and it comes out once a month. And so, in between those monthly inflation data points, there's a ton of uncertainty.

What is this Fed official going to say? Well, the other uncertainty is, to your point, what are the Fed officials going to say? Kashkari said today, "We are seeing almost no evidence that inflation has peaked." Really? Well, that's interesting. Okay. He also said, "I anticipate cracks in U.S. financial markets, but the bar for a change in Fed policy and response is very high." So, Kashkari is hell-bent on doing everything he can to signal that they're not pivoting.

They're deadly serious. So, there's a lot of uncertainty in terms of inflation and what the Fed's response to inflation will be. Besides the perma bears, no one actually thinks that the bear market is going to last forever. I think some people would find joy if it did. The biggest uncertainty now is, okay, how long is this going to last and how much worse could it get?

And that's the thing we don't know. No one knows, is this thing going to get 10 times worse, are we going to go down 50%, or is this about the worst of it, and things are going to be choppy for a while, and then we're going to be fine, and all-time highs will be here again in no time?

That's the thing that you can never predict in a bear market. No one knows how long they're going to last. There? That's right. I feel like I don't hear enough Bad News Bears jokes in the market. Have you heard many of those? It sounds like a layup. Didn't that movie come from like 1980?

I think it was in the early 2000s, right? That was the remake, Duncan. Oh, the remake. Okay. Yeah, I never saw the original. Bad News Bears is like the '70s. Oh, okay. I didn't see that one. I'm talking about the one with that guy. I can't think of his name.

Billy Bob? Yeah. Yeah, Billy Bob. Is that a corduroy couch? It's actually not. It looks like that on camera though. Yeah. All right. Another question. Okay. Up next, we have, "We're 38 years old, married with two kids. Our total annual comp is about $200,000. We have $125,000 in brokerage or savings and $500,000 in retirement." They didn't put not to brag, though.

Pretty good. "My employer recently announced a merger." New listener. Yeah, yeah. "My employer recently announced a merger with another peer where the other company will be the surviving entity. As a result, I will be left with two options. Option A, continue on with the new company. Option B, take a payout of $500,000 and 18-month COBRA.

If we took option B, we'd likely move closer to family, but we'd be looking for new jobs. My wife, who makes about $100,000 a year, could likely find something comparable anywhere we move, but my prospects of finding an equivalent are lower. My gut says to take the payout and figure it out, but I'd love to hear your thoughts." This sounds to me like pretty decent options.

So if his wife makes $100,000, their total is $200,000, he's making $100,000. The company's offering him five years' worth of a salary. That sounds like a long time to be able to find a job, and you have 18 months of health insurance. And if you actually like spending time with your family, moving closer to home seems to make sense.

This seems like a fairly easy one for me. Obviously, the uncertainty of not knowing if you're going to find a job hurts, but don't you think it's now easier, depending on the industry or the job, to find a remote job these days instead of having to work somewhere and be at the place?

I do, but given that he said, "My prospects of finding an equivalent are much lower," I would say for what this person does, I'd take his word for it. However, to your point and his point, he's got a five-year cushion, so surely it can't be that hard. Right. Right?

Even if it takes two years. Unless they're saying that moving to family would be bad for them or something. But I didn't get that from reading it, but it sounds like a positive. Maybe you go to your current company and say, "All right, we're doing the merger. I want you to double my salary to make it worthwhile for me to stay here." But the $500,000 to get out of there, I don't see how you could turn that down.

Plus, if you just put that $500,000 into levered municipal bond funds, boom, golden. Now we're talking. Yeah. This is a pretty good life. I think we've got one more life question here, and then we're out of here. Just out of curiosity, why would a company offer that kind of payout?

How is that financially? Because he's got real dirt on them. He has pictures that they don't want him releasing. If that's a severance package, it's a pretty good one. I don't know. Maybe he has some shares if it's a private company, or it could be that where he has some equity maybe.

Okay. Yeah. It sounds like a pretty good deal. Someone is saying you have to pay taxes on it, obviously. That's true. Also, you have to pay taxes on your income. But I still think that's a pretty good margin of safety there, especially if it allows you to move closer to family and you have two kids.

That seems to make sense to me. All right. Let's do another one. Okay. Up next, we have a question from Adam. "My wife and I are leaning towards buying a home in the next few weeks. I'm an idiot, right? Here's the deal. We owe $100,000 on our $200,000 home right now at 3.75% 30-year rate.

We can put down 20% and get a fixed 10-year 5.5% arm after 10 years versus 7% 30-year fixed. We want to buy our dream home in a school district we know we want to be in eventually. Our son is three, so we have a little time. I've been as financially prudent as one could be, and we've saved for this forever home for 10 years.

I'm planning to keep adequate savings available for the next few years of uncertainty and hope we can refinance in the next 10 years." Ben, do you mind if I go first so you don't take all the good talking points? Sure. Thank you. Okay. Here's the second part. Oh, it's a two-parter.

Yeah, yeah. It's a two-parter. "How does one balance always making the right financial decision with living the life one desires? Mortgage rates are the highest they've been in 20 years. Do I pass on the one-in-20-year home because it went on the market when the economic environment sucked? I'm leaning towards the YOLO approach, otherwise I fear I'll be 85 with a ton of retirement money but full of regret of a life lived as safely as possible." Michael, before you go and take the good points, I just want to do a pop culture reference, then you can go.

Okay? John, throw up my ... This, to me, feels like Robin Williams, Matt Damon, Good Will Hunting. It's not your fault. It's not your fault. Do you know? I know. It's not your fault. I know. It's not your fault. What? It's a coincidence that I fell asleep to this movie on Tuesday night.

The first, like, 30, 40 minutes are ... I mean, the whole movie's incredible, but the first 30 to 40, in particular, are really spectacular. So that's ... this person ... you're going into a crappy house ... Time out. Time out. Go ahead. Hold on. It's my turn. I'm the captain now.

Okay. Go back to the first part of the question because I've ... now I'm thrown off because he, in the second part, he said ... he was talking about the one-in-20 home. Duncan, or John, please throw up the first part of that question. All right. That might take him a second.

Okay. A bit of quick housekeeping. Yeah. He's watching YouTube, he's watching ARM, is an adjustable rate mortgage, right? That's right. Yes. Okay. So here's the thing that threw me off. He's talking about we want to buy our dream home in a school district we know we want to be in eventually.

So that told me that this home is not his forever home. But then he said it's a one-in-20. So Ben, what do you make out of this? Because this matters. I think this is ... Is this his forever home? It sounds like it is, but it isn't. I'm not clear.

Well, he's saying that they want to live there for at least 20 years. That sounds like a semi-forever home. That's not what he said. He called it a one-in-20 home. I think he's saying it's like the rare home that actually fits all of their desires, right? Fine. One-in-20. All right.

So here's why it matters. If you're not going to be there for the duration, then the ARM absolutely makes sense, right? To save a point and a half, that's a significant savings. The risk to that, and there are all sorts of different types of adjustable rate mortgages that have different bells and whistles.

The risk, of course, is that you end up getting very comfortable, and this does become a permanent home, and rates are higher in 10 years, which we were saying 10-year forecasts are silly on Animal Spirits this week because Druckenmiller was talking about where the Dow will be in 10 years.

So I don't want to be a hypocrite here. However, I will be a hypocrite, are 30-year mortgage rates going to be higher in 10 years than they are today? All right. John, throw up my mortgage rate chart here. The last table. Excuse me. I asked a question. I asked a simple question.

I'm going to hit you with data. Look, so this is 30-year mortgage rates during every single recession since the 1970s. The average decline is about 1.7% from the high during a recession to the low. We're going to have a recession sometime in the next 10 years. I think at that point, he's going to have the ability to refinance, correct?

So I think the problem is I don't think you can feel like an idiot for being financially prudent, saving, and then finding your dream home. Guess what? The people who are in the best position to still buy right now, we've been talking about the housing market being kind of broken, the people who own a home and have some equity, it's going to be tough.

You're going to have to plug your nose and do it. But if you find your dream home and you want to be in the school district, then I don't think you can feel bad at yourself for mistiming it. If you can afford it, then you go ahead and do it, probably.

And if you can get the arm, yeah, I don't think you worry about the financial problems here and say, "Oh, I gave up this wonderful mortgage rate," and let that override all your decisions. I think you just suck it up and you do it. Agreed. Didn't we talk about some places have portable mortgages?

In Great Britain and Canada, I think. But I say all else equal, the life decision should always trump the financial decision when it comes to this kind of stuff, right? 1,000%. It has to. 1,000%. If it's going to make you happier. Switching it up. Yeah. I agree. Guess what?

He said, "I fear I'll be 85 with a ton of retirement money but full of regret of a life lived as safely as possible." Yeah. It sounds like they've already thought through all this too, right? Yeah. They're saying it's a school district. They want their kid to go to school in.

This sounds like a thoughtful person and it sounds like they're asking us to give them permission to do what they should do. And Ben, do we give them permission? Yes. Yes, we do. I'm giving them permission. And if interest rates reset at 15%, don't come complaining to us, but yeah, go for the dream home.

Hey, this is fun. Yeah. You do this every Thursday? Can you believe it? Yeah. Thanks for watching. Live every Thursday? Just kidding. I'm a fan. You know I watch. Yes. Duncan, thank you for calling in from Disney. I think, so Mike will be the next one to go to Disney in a few months, right?

February. I'm going in February. I went earlier this year. We're keeping the Disney economy humming. We should do this as an economic indicator, just every quarter someone goes to Disney to report. It really is. All right. So thanks to Duncan. Did Duncan just put in a higher low on Disney?

I think so. Duncan, is that your hotel phone ringing? It's not actually. What is that? All right. Maybe it is. I don't know. Send us an email. Askthecompoundshow@gmail.com and we'll see you next time. Thanks Ben. Thanks Duncan. See you everyone. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye.

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